January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Here is Caldwell, going to be close I guess, we will have to see if the warm layer persists in upcoming runs...

Wow look at that convection already

The storms down in GA and AL already producing tornados and lots of lightning strikes to go with the heavy rain.

It looks like it may get here sooner or is that just me

are new models coming out now...still home so following thread

So I just saw a model on TV that shows none of the rain getting here before mid to late Monday morning and then only a short period of heavy rain. Does anyone know which model that would be? It looked a lot less impressive/threatening than the GFS/Euro.

I'm very possibly wrong about this, but I think the storms in the southeast right now are from a system ahead of the low.

TheAresian wrote:I'm very possibly wrong about this, but I think the storms in the southeast right now are from a system ahead of the low.

You're not. Those will likely slide off the SE coast and maybe only brush by our area Sunday. Then a second wave developing behind it should affect uscSunday night/Monday.

But it does show how unstable and moist the air mass is down there right now.

Peeps,

This LP/storm si over performing as we speak in the deep south with great convection and Tornadoes all over Miss and Bama.

Joe B still harping on 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6 in N & W areas with 6" plus in the Poc and further west and North.

Says once the storm pulls east the column cold and temps crash all the way to the coast.

Check out these 850's temps - this would be an absolute paste job for Northern and western peeps and sleet as well



Get your generators ready and follow the hi res models and sr now forget the globals after seeing all teh deep convection and torm popping up in teh south they don't handle these types of storms well

frank thanks for the update for upcoming storm at least the rain will help our drought conditions.
our concern for the storm is coastal flooding beach erosion storm surge and damaging winds with power outage i wish this would be a rodzilla but i am thinking we will have one soon i hope stay safe everyone

That convection you see down over the south (AL/GA) is an initial weak low riding a weak stationary frontal boundary. The main PVA (energy) is still back over AZ and NM. You can even see some weak energy over the convection as we speak. One thing is for sure, the gulf is loaded with moisture and a good amount of instability. This upcoming storm sure does look like it'll have more than enough vorticity advection to get this going. Looks like a primary low tracks right to about the latitude of WKY, transfer off VA beach, then the capture, stall, then take off NNE. The occlusion would cause a 700mb warm tongue to wrap around so it makes sense to see less in the way of rain, and more with wind. However, still think general 1-2" amounts will be the consensus.

docstox12 wrote:

amugs wrote:Peeps,

This LP/storm si over performing as we speak in the deep south with great convection and Tornadoes all over Miss and Bama.

Joe B still harping on 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6 in N & W areas with 6" plus in the Poc and further west and North.

Says once the storm pulls east the column cold and temps crash all the way to the coast.

Check out these 850's temps - this would be an absolute paste job for Northern and western peeps and sleet as well



Get your generators ready and follow the hi res models and sr now forget the globals after seeing all teh deep convection and torm popping up in teh south they don't handle these types of storms well

Mugsy, NWS not buying JB's analysis at all, just pure rain up by me for the whole event.

That's why I was checking the soundings, looks like you have to get to about Albany to see any winter precip, but again, that was as of today's 12z NAM, things will tweak between now and tomorrow...

Hey everyone been busy but checked in got caught up sp sr models showing still sign winds to 70mph posdibly gusts that is and looks like less rain. Have we gotten a timing down yet for the worst. And whoever posted that nam wundmap that doesn't go inland. I was told a long b time ago it curs off at the sore even if there are winds further ibland look at those 925mb maps they will b close and some show sustained to 75mph. But of course not all that midea down. Mugs said it won't have a problem if it doesn't this go b even worse and those high wind watch will have b upped.

Any word on your mother in law today Jman?

TheAresian wrote:Any word on your mother in law today Jman?

I'll keep this in banter since we are nearing the storm but yes, ill post over there.

4km NAM wind gusts in kts! at height of storm, there is many many hour before and after of gusts over advisory level even warning level.

docstox12 wrote:

amugs wrote:Peeps,

This LP/storm si over performing as we speak in the deep south with great convection and Tornadoes all over Miss and Bama.

Joe B still harping on 1-3" for NYC Metro and 3-6 in N & W areas with 6" plus in the Poc and further west and North.

Says once the storm pulls east the column cold and temps crash all the way to the coast.

Check out these 850's temps - this would be an absolute paste job for Northern and western peeps and sleet as well



Get your generators ready and follow the hi res models and sr now forget the globals after seeing all teh deep convection and torm popping up in teh south they don't handle these types of storms well

Mugsy, NWS not buying JB's analysis at all, just pure rain up by me for the whole event.

Doc here is JB's thinking on why:  Its actually quite an interesting read.  

The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along.

Look at the GFS 1 pm Monday




The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its why the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this.

Hr 48



54



60



I think it has too much snow from NYC to BOS at this time



and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advectiion cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you dont simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. I am trying to teach this to Garrett He flipped out yesterday at the 12z runs cause they were so warm ( I feel his pain, there has not been one major storm that has bullseyed state College since March 1994. We have gotten heavy snows, even had the most in some big storms, but the monsters have all been southeast of us with their maxes since he came into the world. And with the winter being lousy so far, as a snow geek he is upset. I grew up in ACY so any snow I saw when I got here was a dream come true, though we did get lollipopped a few times when I was a kid. and we all know the perverse satisfaction of knowing you had more snow than anyone else) . The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. It may come down to the the biggest options are going to carry the day, it may come down to the opposite, 0 But if you have come up with a balanced figure then you dont worry about it, till you make the final change The storm 2 weekends ago was me trying to show this, The GFS started with nothing. We knew certain paths would yield certain results, so come up with the blend, then dont change it until you are certain of the one option that

Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And whats more you cant go back and claim a foreacst was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. For instance in both December and now January, the ideas issued first beat the idea issued last ( right before the month) but the one that gets scored is the last one out, not the other one. In fact, I have violated my own methodology in some cases reacting to cold that came stronger quicker, but backed away BUT I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE IDEA of people debating and making forecasts, but I think you cant run to the one that was right. So you try to stick with the product of your work. You will find that the more you put into something to come up with the answer, the better the chance you have of hitting it, and sticking with it, because you have studied the set up so closely,you are ready to pounce on the one that is best once you see it. But its the sum of the picture, and only when sure, do you jump on one aspect. In the winter so far, like the past several winters, it seems the EPO has been the king of the road and the SOI gyrations have been tipping that off around 10 days out. everything then responds to that.

I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I dont care if you dont have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way

I love JB. He may be fanatical at times, but he's real. He tells you how it is, why he does what he does, and accepts the criticism if he's wrong. But he doesn't play games and change his stance every two seconds because something changes, he stands firm until has significant cause to do otherwise, and he certainly doesn't play political games. I love him. Rant over lol I only wish I could be half as good as I have found him to be.

The 3k nam has a grand total of 17 inches of sleet for parys of Rockland and Orange County.lol seriously it is a bit colder than last run and the Winds are Mighty impressive sustained 40 mile an hour winds even into parts of interior Northern New Jersey. One thing about the trends is that the system is slowing down some and probably the worst effects are the daylight hours Monday 7 a.m. till about 7 p.m.
Edit the Run wasn't finished yet it shows a grand total of 21 inches of sleet in Northern Rockland and Southern Orange County

algae888 wrote:The 3k nam has a grand total of 17 inches of sleet for parys of Rockland and Orange County.lol seriously it is a bit colder than last run and the Winds are Mighty impressive sustained 40 mile an hour winds even into parts of interior Northern New Jersey. One thing about the trends is that the system is slowing down some and probably the worst effects are the daylight hours Monday 7 a.m. till about 7 p.m.

I think rb said that the snow map depicting sleet is not showing the right totals its not go b 17 inches of sleet, I think that would be a record, he gave a ratio for snow to sleet.  They need to iron that out.  Def winds our main concern, hope ConEd is ready (problem is they may not be able to do any work until Tues as they are not allowed in the buckets with winds over 30mph, my baby sitters husband is a supervisor at ConEd. not much talk bout anything, I know its worst for the shore but all areas are gonna get it good as you said even into NJ.  I still do not think the winds will be fully ironed out until we are within 12-24 hrs.

Finally got around to checking out the NAM. I can only hope that this is how plays out.

Yes jon i know. Is going to be some really impressive Dynamics going on here and with temperatures mostly in the thirties across most of the area any intense bands could produce sleet even down to the coast. Imagine 40 mile an hour sustained winds with sleet falling. Jon I elect you to stand outside when that's happening and let us know how it feels

aiannone wrote:

WTH!!! NYC getting over 6 inches, that can't be right.  Is there go a be a last second mothra to godzilla for some? See sleet included so at least several inches of sleet, bad news, when would the sleet likely happen? Or is there no telling?