Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:49 am

rb924119 wrote:I'm setting up my computer now so I can start some in-depth analysis

by **billg315** Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:49 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well this storm now has it all: flooding rain, tropical force winds, storm, surge, sleet and snow. NAM "Locusts and plague" map now running.

Good day not to work and just track. Yea, I think I'll do that.

Stock up on the beer and Nutella.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:51 am

Read this.

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions - Page 11 IMG_0331.PNG.10640a72145c0c37d2af0c32fdc3caba

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:52 am

Frank 65 mph gusts even into city or li? I'm very surprised with the cold trend one thing for sure if u for any reason have to step out in that sleet blowing at 60mpH get ready to b in pain.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:52 am

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well this storm now has it all: flooding rain, tropical force winds, storm, surge, sleet and snow. NAM "Locusts and plague" map now running.

Good day not to work and just track. Yea, I think I'll do that.

Stock up on the beer and Nutella.

Wine and nutella. My crack.

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:57 am

Can anyone give me a idea of what can be expected snow wise in pine bush Orange county ny

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:01 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Frank that model has consistently shown a small 15-20 inch area directly over where Doc and I live since yesterday and is getting some support form the NAM so I'm wondering how serious to take it now.

I realize it's almost all sleet but if it verifies 4-5 inches of sleet would be a huge problem. I'm more concerned about that right now than the winds here.

by **jake732** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:02 am

frank, the latest NAM showed sleet on the jersey shore, u think thats really a possibility?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:07 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Frank that model has consistently shown a small 15-20 inch area directly over where Doc and I live since yesterday and is getting some support form the NAM so I'm wondering how serious to take it now.

I realize it's almost all sleet but if it verifies 4-5 inches of sleet would be a huge problem. I'm more concerned about that right now than the winds here.

Your area, along with NEPA, is a very tough forecast. I would say a couple inches of sleet and some freezing rain is highly likely. Let's see what other models show later on.

jake732 wrote:frank, the latest NAM showed sleet on the jersey shore, u think thats really a possibility?

Sleet has 3:1 ratios. JS won't see any. If they do, very very little.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:07 am

I hope the worst holds off until after 12 as I said I'm go b driving home in morning will prolly stop off new London coast to take quick shots of ocean then jet back here assuming I can that there's not bad traffic.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:11 am

Frank I noted timing of precip on nam so it appears we largely stay dry till mon night? Shows just coming into nyc at 00z.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:13 am

RGEM FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH H5

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:14 am

OMG IT EXITS H5 OFF THE NC/VA BORDER!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:15 am

jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted timing of precip on nam so it appears we largely stay dry till mon night? Shows just coming into nyc at 00z.

Not, by Noon there's moderate precip moving in

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:15 am

jmanley32 wrote:I hope the worst holds off until after 12 as I said I'm go b driving home in morning will prolly stop off new London coast to take quick shots of ocean then jet back here assuming I can that there's not bad traffic.

I just canceled an appointment I have in Woodbury LI tomorrow. I'm not driving 150 mile round trip in Heavy sleet, rain and high winds. No amount of money worth that, well within reason.

At least you'll be driving 95 in CT which shouldn't have frozen ptype issues tomorrow afternoon. My fear was driving back to the HV in heavy sleet and winds tomorrow afternoon.

by **jake732** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:16 am

rb924119 wrote:OMG IT EXITS H5 OFF THE NC/VA BORDER!!!!

what does that mean for us?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:17 am

rb924119 wrote:OMG IT EXITS H5 OFF THE NC/VA BORDER!!!!

About to hit the gym. Post some maps.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:19 am

RGEM actually increased winds a bit in nyc and li at 900hpa even though it's s and e. Oh boy imagine this ends up a sleeticane. Ugly

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:19 am

Looking at the soundings for Teterboro, Caldwell, Albany and White Plains, only Albany gets a lot of mixing winter precip, mostly sleet. White plains gets a little snow, the rest all rain. But with the dynamics of this storm, whoever gets under the heavy dbz should get some sleet. Just think the nam is overdoing the frozen precip for NJ. I guess this will be a fun test of how the soundings match up to snow maps....

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:20 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted timing of precip on nam so it appears we largely stay dry till mon night? Shows just coming into nyc at 00z.

Not, by Noon there's moderate precip moving in

weird I looked back at ur map says 00z and looks to just b more in. Ok then I'm go have leave really early tomorrow morning.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:22 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I hope the worst holds off until after 12 as I said I'm go b driving home in morning will prolly stop off new London coast to take quick shots of ocean then jet back here assuming I can that there's not bad traffic.

I just canceled an appointment I have in Woodbury LI tomorrow. I'm not driving 150 mile round trip in Heavy sleet, rain and high winds. No amount of money worth that, well within reason.

At least you'll be driving 95 in CT which shouldn't have frozen ptype issues tomorrow afternoon. My fear was driving back to the HV in heavy sleet and winds tomorrow afternoon.

well torrential rain and and high winds will make travel no fun. I plan to leave early b back around or b4 noon to play it safest. I know best b to stay here but I got locked plans.

by Guest Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:34 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I hope the worst holds off until after 12 as I said I'm go b driving home in morning will prolly stop off new London coast to take quick shots of ocean then jet back here assuming I can that there's not bad traffic.

I just canceled an appointment I have in Woodbury LI tomorrow. I'm not driving 150 mile round trip in Heavy sleet, rain and high winds. No amount of money worth that, well within reason.

At least you'll be driving 95 in CT which shouldn't have frozen ptype issues tomorrow afternoon. My fear was driving back to the HV in heavy sleet and winds tomorrow afternoon.

CP. I live in Syosset. Woodbury is part of Syosset. If/when you come down you better PM me. We'll get together. I want to meet the man, the myth, the legend. and You can see the SE snow capital of NYS!! tongue

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:47 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:OMG IT EXITS H5 OFF THE NC/VA BORDER!!!!

About to hit the gym. Post some maps.

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OMG GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!! FURTHER EAST AT H5!!!! THIS IS ALL SNOW!!!!

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by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:53 am

GFS takes H5 off the Delmarva; it's no longer over NJ!!

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by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:55 am

One thing to add is I strongly expect thunder(insert precipitation type here) with this system, especially with that intense band. Vertical velocities are going to be off the charts.

by **sroc4** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:56 am

Where is the 850 closed low?

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:00 am

RGEM WINDS ARE UGLY

Just as a snapshot:

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