January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Great map Frank - HOLY EURO - COming inline with RGEM and NAM Suites interesting to see what NAM has 18 and 0z runs wow.

Much more frozen precip N&W - cutoff is BC/ PC line in NNJ.







Wetter TOOOOOO!!

Hoping we see some decent snow in the Wyoming Valley, but I am not sure if we will.

mikeypizano wrote:Hoping we see some decent snow in the Wyoming Valley, but I am not sure if we will.

You've got better odds there than we do over here in NJ. And with the colder trend, I wouldn't write off the possibility of snow for your area.

Nam looking intense mobile and busy so I'll let others look at it closer.

NNJ may be in for big surprise from N&W MMU soundings here - warm layer at 850 screws things up for snow everyone N & W VDAY REDUX??

Morristown Airport - sleet storm

Nam looks slower and colder

Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
317 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

NJZ008-010-012>015-020-026-231000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0001.170123T2100Z-170124T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MORRISTOWN, SOMERVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK,
FREEHOLD, SANDY HOOK, TRENTON, JACKSON, AND LONG BEACH ISLAND
317 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
 JERSEY...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
 AREAS...IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...EASTERN MONMOUTH...MERCER...AND
 WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...MIDDLESEX...
 MORRIS...AND SOMERSET. IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...COASTAL OCEAN
 AND OCEAN.

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
 COAST ON MONDAY...AND THEN WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
 SHORELINE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING ON TUESDAY. BANDS OF
 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
 HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING MONDAY EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF
 RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
 POSSIBLY APPROACHING 4 INCHES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
 ACROSS MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

18z NAM

Is Binghamton in the reds? I can't tell on that map.

And here it is peeps!!! WSW


Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.170123T1800Z-170124T1200Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, JIM THORPE, AND STROUDSBURG
318 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS REGION OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN LOWER MONDAY WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE TREACHEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BRING DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$

PO

New forecast for me in Binghamton, NY. NWS liking the cold trend a little more right now
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight
A slight chance of showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 37. East wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday
Rain before 4pm, then rain and snow. High near 38. East wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Monday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 33. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches.

Tuesday
Snow likely before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

What site did you get that forecast from?

TheAresian wrote:What site did you get that forecast from?

NWS (noaa.gov)

Hi Res Para showing 65-80 kn at 850 level from CNJ to LHV and EPA and all of LI and S CT.
Destructive if that mixes down even losing 10% - 20% of its force.
SV maps are insane for these.

12K NAM saying Petty - Won't Back Down!!

Most of this if not all is sleet so divide by 3.5

No wonder I can't find an accurate forecast from them. They haven't updated my area since 10 AM.

Winter weather advisory for all of orange and Putnam counties and Western Passaic one to six inches of snow and sleet

What is the start time or worst time with winds for cnj coast? I'm wondering if schools in the area will close.

HERE WE GO!

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW, SLEET, AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF HEAVY, WET SNOW
AND SLEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY BUT BECOME MIXED WITH
SNOW AND SLEET FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
TRANSITION BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING, MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE SEEING SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST
MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.


* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE MANY ROADS
TREACHEROUS AND TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS BY LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS WHICH WILL ADD TO THE IMPACT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND
ICE...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

Everything is coming together for a perfect mess. And I would bet most people will have no clue until they're on their way to work tomorrow.

I've been telling my mom about this storm for days. So she just called me and told me I better get ready because she saw on the Weather Channel that snow is coming.

I'm really curios to see what the schools do here

Look at that convection exploding over the Southeast:

Aresian. Syosnow calling. Your my boy blue!!