January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Look at that convection exploding over the Southeast:

Aresian. Syosnow calling. Your my boy blue!!

Sounds like a real slopfest in some areas,if that's the case just give me rain.That rain/snow/sleet just kills my back trying to shovel it.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really curios to see what the schools do here

/
skins u really think they may close??

This just in from NWS in Binghamton.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW, SLEET, AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF HEAVY, WET SNOW
AND SLEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS.

NWS Albany just calling for a mixture of rain and sleet for me in Dutchess county and 2-6 inches of sleet and snow from Catskills to Albany. Elevation will be key obviously.

My test of the soundings continues..... 18Z NAM, all rain for Teterboro, Caldwell, and White Plains, a mess with sleet, snow, freezing rain and rain in Albany... still showing a warm layer at 850's

So fired up for this storm I can't even function!! Wind driven 2+ inches of rain and temps now only 37 for a high tomorrow. On January 23rd. Freakin awesome who else is really excited

The trend of late has been colder and colder. Does that continue or has it gotten as cold as it's going to get?

syosnow94 wrote:So fired up for this storm I can't even function!!  Wind driven 2+ inches of rain and temps now only 37 for a high tomorrow. On January 23rd.  Freakin awesome who else is really excited

Haha. How do you think I feel. I'm in mid-Hudson valley north of 84 and forecast is for mixed rain and sleet.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'm setting up my computer now so I can start some in-depth analysis

omg lol left the house this morning you guys were on page 7 now on 15 I saw this...lol...what am I about to read....husband home and settled!!!! been to the store to get a couple of things he needed(let me tell you I took one look at SR and decided to pay double at the farm!!) was in and out in 15 minutes ....and finally sitting down to start reading....what will I find??

First thing you should do is check with your local NWS. Watches have been popping up.

Frank_Wx wrote:

ok want to learn..is this a sustained wind map and what the winds could be at the surface?

rgem is colder...


we are a tick away from seeing some frozen in ne/nj and Westchester county

Okay remember what I said yesterday about the S SE getting crushed?? The track coming this way with a dynamic set up and storm it brig Salk the goods and 1992 is coming back baby.
Colder trend is looking more likely to the coast not really but 20 miles outside NYC is game. Maybe a mix in the city for brief time but nothing crazy at this point.
Again the winds are goin to be real bad and the 850' on SV maps are crazy for 6-9 hours from CNJ to SW CT to LI.
No real inversion to prevent them from mixing down that is a red flag for scary.

Look at all the violent weather in Fla and GA and Bama guess what the storm ain't losing that just going to bring it to us in another form.
Watches flying for interior now. 
Let's see what the 0Z suite shows, NAM leading the charge again. CMC was the forerunner on this on.

TheAresian wrote:First thing you should do is check with your local NWS. Watches have been popping up.

the town next to us..Middletown got 2 phone calls with warnings today...girlfriend texted....no call for us...I hope school will be called!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017012218/rgem_T850_neus_11.png

hyde345 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:So fired up for this storm I can't even function!!  Wind driven 2+ inches of rain and temps now only 37 for a high tomorrow. On January 23rd.  Freakin awesome who else is really excited

Haha. How do you think I feel. I'm in mid-Hudson valley north of 84 and forecast is for mixed rain and sleet.

You are going to mix Snow and Sleet and maybe all snow. Soundings come out in 1-2 hr. You near what airport?
U r under a WSW.

jake732 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really curios to see what the schools do here

/
skins u  really think they may close??

here is my understanding..if the police in our town say not safe to put kids on buses then no they will not....don't forget some kids leave district for vocational school, high tech...biotech...and also you can not have kids walking or waiting at the bus stop with that kind of wind...I do believe they will close ....lets see if I am right.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

TheAresian wrote:First thing you should do is check with your local NWS. Watches have been popping up.

the town next to us..Middletown got 2 phone calls with warnings today...girlfriend texted....no call for us...I hope school will be called!!

Momma they will be crazy not to as the whole coastal NJ and LI shroud and even onto Midlesex, Union, Hudson and Bergen Cty should do. Don't gibe it's just wind here, not u mom but ithers, this is shaping up into a bad sit so err on the side of caution with kids. U wIL my 39 yrs of school experience says yes.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jake732 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really curios to see what the schools do here

/
skins u  really think they may close??

here is my understanding..if the police in our town say not safe to put kids on buses then no they will not....don't forget some kids leave district for vocational school, high tech...biotech...and also you can not have kids walking or waiting at the bus stop with that kind of wind...I do believe they will close ....lets see if I am right.

Jake u have kids? If not I can see why u question if u do my man why would u put ur flesh and blood at risk? Dude it is a very bad storm and u guys wil see sustained trop force winds with possible hcane gusts and u would think they would open school?

Al that is a good 30  miles plus jog ESE woo hoo! Hope it's support from 0z suites.

Frank_Wx wrote:

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

billg315 wrote:Well this storm now has it all: flooding rain, tropical force winds, storm, surge, sleet and snow. NAM "Locusts and plague" map now running.

Good day not to work and just track. Yea, I think I'll do that.

Stock up on the beer and Nutella.

Wine and nutella. My crack.

Patron is mine...got it chilled in frig...waiting to be done so I can have a shot..maybe two....lol

billg315 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:Hoping we see some decent snow in the Wyoming Valley, but I am not sure if we will.

You've got better odds there than we do over here in NJ. And with the colder trend, I wouldn't write off the possibility of snow for your area.

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon.

* Locations... Luzerne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, southern Wayne, and
Pike counties in northeast Pennsylvania as well as Sullivan
County in central New York.

* Hazard types... heavy wet snow mixed with sleet.

* Accumulations... potential for 5 to 10 inches of heavy wet snow
and sleet. The heaviest amounts will be over the higher terrain
with lower amounts in the valleys. A little freezing rain will
also be possible.

* Timing... rain will develop overnight into early Monday but
become mixed with snow and sleet from east to west through the
day as colder air moves in. A little freezing rain will also be
possible in the transition but this does not look to be the main
threat. By Monday evening, most of the region will be seeing
snow mixed with sleet. Snow and sleet, heavy at times, will
continue Monday night into early Tuesday before diminishing west
to east midday Tuesday into the afternoon.

* Impacts... snow and sleet accumulations will lead to dangerous
travel. The storm will be accompanied by strong winds which will
add to the impact of the heavy wet snow and ice... potentially
leading to power outages.

* Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Temperatures... in the mid 30s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for heavy snow,
sleet, or ice accumulations that would impact travel. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Where is the 850 closed low?

Tracks just off the NJ coast. Again, this is east of last night, which had it over NJ. Huge changes. I knew modeling didn't look right trying to ram this thing head on into that block aha

I am so behind on this system.  I haven't looked at any details on actual models at all.  Ive only been following the forum.  Ive been so under the weather, no pun intended, since Thursday.  Keep up the good job all.  

Hope you feel better soon!!

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jake732 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really curios to see what the schools do here

/
skins u  really think they may close??

here is my understanding..if the police in our town say not safe to put kids on buses then no they will not....don't forget some kids leave district for vocational school, high tech...biotech...and also you can not have kids walking or waiting at the bus stop with that kind of wind...I do believe they will close ....lets see if I am right.

Jake u have kids? If not I can see why u question if u do my man why would u put ur flesh and blood at risk? Dude it is a very bad storm and u guys wil see sustained trop force winds with possible hcane gusts and u would think they would open school?

yes I have 2 kids. so u think I should just stay home as it will be to dangerous to drive. ok thanx