January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Yeah someone including me asked about bridges. With those kinda winds I see bridges and above ground mta halting.

aiannone wrote:18z GFS is a Binghamton Mauler!!!!!!

I really wish it would keep coming east and give me that snow. lol. But you deserve a good storm up in Binghamton my man, so I hope you get a foot out of this.

Mugs,

Since I asked, his district (West New York) has actually closed. He will be cancelling college, of course. Whew - weight off my shoulders! Hope everyone else stays safe tomorrow too!

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah someone including me asked about bridges. With those kinda winds I see bridges and above ground mta halting.

Yeah bridges are an issue if some of those winds verify. I remember in Dec 92 almost every major bridge closed. I didn't go to school that day, it was really bad by early morning. If it's not so bad in the AM people will go about there business.

amugs wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:So fired up for this storm I can't even function!!  Wind driven 2+ inches of rain and temps now only 37 for a high tomorrow. On January 23rd.  Freakin awesome who else is really excited

Haha. How do you think I feel. I'm in mid-Hudson valley north of 84 and forecast is for mixed rain and sleet.

You are going to mix Snow and Sleet and maybe all snow. Soundings come out in 1-2 hr. You near what airport?
U r under a WSW.

Mugs, I'm under a WWA for rain/sleet mix late Monday/Monday night. NWS Albany not expecting much accums by me. I'm right up the Hudson Valley just north of Poughkeepsie and I really need to be a little further west in Ulster/Sullivan area to get anything significant IMO.

The RGEM just looks nasty around 7 p.m. tomorrow for much of Central and North NJ. Heavy rain and sustained winds over 20 mph with gusts likely well over 40-50 mph (Thats away from the coast).

I'm intrigued by these NAM maps showing significant snow even south and east of my area. Realizing this could be sleet, it is still A LOT of sleet if it verifies. I'm guessing most people are discounting these models? Because I haven't seen any forecasts (NWS or private) suggest a period of several hours of sleet totaling 3" of sleet in this part of NJ. Yet that's what I'd expect from some of the NAM runs.

This storm is a beast. I wouldn't be shocked to see sleet for the majority of the area. 850s crash on every model as the low gets stronger.

Snow88 wrote:This storm is a beast. I wouldn't be shocked to see sleet for the majority of the area. 850s crash on every model as the low gets stronger.

I think you are correct. This isn't exactly a "warm" storm -- its just a few degrees shy of what we need for snow. So it would make sense to me with precipitation falling this heavily that at times it would go over to sleet -- if not snow -- during those heavy bursts.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

TheAresian wrote:Time to see which model is better:

The GFS



or the NAM

Actually neither. Follow the RGEM. Its usually an accurate short range model. I'll follow the other models for trends only.

I'm good with that. The RGEM shows a nice total for my area.

As dusk falls, Beast it is:
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/us/VisSatellite.html

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Where is the 850 closed low?

Tracks just off the NJ coast. Again, this is east of last night, which had it over NJ. Huge changes. I knew modeling didn't look right trying to ram this thing head on into that block aha

I am so behind on this system.  I haven't looked at any details on actual models at all.  Ive only been following the forum.  Ive been so under the weather, no pun intended, since Thursday.  Keep up the good job all.  

Hope you feel better soon!!

Thank You...me too.

The Weather Channel



I might take pictures over here in southern Brooklyn

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

TheAresian wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

TheAresian wrote:Time to see which model is better:

The GFS



or the NAM

Actually neither. Follow the RGEM. Its usually an accurate short range model. I'll follow the other models for trends only.

I'm good with that. The RGEM shows a nice total for my area.

Hey Doc NAM showing 26 inches right over our town.

Now I know most of that is still probably sleet but let's say it all was. That would be 9 inches or so if sleet which I'm not sure I would really want.  The one positive about sleet is the water content is so High it would take forever to melt. Maybe by late April.

So Alex I'll take the Nam for $1000.

LOL, 26 inches!!! Well, anyway, there will be frozen precip CP! On to nowcast!!!!

That hurricane wind gust warning is for over the waters. Two making it look more like for land.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-75.89,24.12,622/loc=-74.227,40.663

pulling out one of my favorite sites

Those maps are mainly sleet so divide by like 4 from what a pro on another site said.

Tjhid is a dynamic storm. Lots of nowcasting tomorrow.
Scott feel better.

I was just outside bringing in 2 days worth of wood to keep the wood burning stove going in preparation for a couple days of no power and I am really surprised at how windy it is already. Easy 15 mph+ from the NE

Is this still looking like it will have any impact on jersey? Because the past hour or so people are only talking about Nyc and north

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Where is the 850 closed low?

Tracks just off the NJ coast. Again, this is east of last night, which had it over NJ. Huge changes. I knew modeling didn't look right trying to ram this thing head on into that block aha

I am so behind on this system.  I haven't looked at any details on actual models at all.  Ive only been following the forum.  Ive been so under the weather, no pun intended, since Thursday.  Keep up the good job all.  

Hope you feel better soon!!

Thank You...me too.  

Feel better man. It's tough tracking a storm like this without your insight. Very much has been missed, but we're trying to hold down the fort here. Look forward to your return in full health!

Well, word must be filtering out slowly. I just got a text from a friend out of the blue asking what was going on with the weather, so he must have heard something was brewing.

It seem's no one knows about this storm. Every time i mention to someone that a big storm is coming they respond with "what storm" and "ohh it's just rain"......

winds picking up here as well currently ene at 15mph

Some NJ schools are already closing. I swear, all you have to say to Jersey is "boo" and the schools close

Actually the schools in ocean county hardly ever close. They will not close for this either