January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

NAM 3km



3 and 4km models seem to be at odds over whether the heaviest precip will be more east or west.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Really don't think there will be much of a change from the map Frank posted earlier, so probably taking a break and watching the games...

After assessing latest data I can tell you I feel even more confident about the map I posted.

Ray - we almost agree if it weren't for your snow amounts. However, I can definitely see how these will happen based on elevation. It will be fascinating to watch unfold.

I just compared and we really are pretty much identical haha that's pretty cool!!! I went higher with the snow because of the thermal profiles and overall setup. When/if it snows, it will be big aggregate flakes which will stack quick, and I think 2-4" of sleet is a decent bet in the lighter blues, with more snow than sleet in the darker blues. I think 10" is a bit high, and honestly see most amounts in the 6-7 maybe 8" range, but there are always those spots that get a bit more haha definitely agree that this will be interesting to say the very least, but I think there will be a lot more sleet and less snow than the NWS is currently advertising, especially on the southern periphery of their WSW.

Versus the 32km NAM, you're definitely right ahaha although I think the map that you posted may not be counting sleet as snow; it might be differentiating between the two. Not sure though

Gusts to 30 knots already being report at ACY.

Well up here on the 29th floor at mohegan sun in ct. Having a good time looks like I'll b able to get back tomorrow in time to rick n roll. Thpugh this area rb u also have in 65 mph gusts. It's pretty far inland nws doesn't show that.

I wonder how much longer it will be before the watches change over to warnings.

GFS coming in now

This storm is reeking havoc down south the NWS issued a PDS quite rare in the area that the did.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0021.html

00z RGEM ptype...over 3 inches of rain Jersey Shore to central and eastern LI

The morning commute looks good tomorrow. Coming home will be a challenge.

In terms of temps, 0z GFS is nearly identical to 18z, however precip is once again a bit slower

Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM ptype...over 3 inches of rain Jersey Shore to central and eastern LI

Where do you find these? And I don't know how much freezing rain there will actually be. Based on the heavy precipitation rates and dew points near freezing I don't think much ice will really accumulate.

Frank_Wx wrote:The morning commute looks good tomorrow. Coming home will be a challenge.

what do winds speeds look like in the morning?

0z GFS

It's interesting that one year ago at this time, I looked at the 0Z RGEM and screamed "MADONNE!" in excitement about the imminent blizzard that was upon us. And now, I look at the 0Z RGEM tonight and we see a cold rain storm for NYC/LI that looks to go into Tuesday as well...

Is the GFS underestimating precip? Those totals look a little low unless I missed a post about something changing.

Incidentally, this system has already killed at least 19 people in the South since yesterday. Let's all keep their families in our thoughts.

Sustained winds in the 20s gusting to 33 at JFK and 32 at LGA.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM ptype...over 3 inches of rain Jersey Shore to central and eastern LI

Where do you find these? And I don't know how much freezing rain there will actually be. Based on the heavy precipitation rates and dew points near freezing I don't think much ice will really accumulate.

Go on the left side where Canadian suite is kept and there's a link leading to RGEM. It's weatherbelll.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The morning commute looks good tomorrow. Coming home will be a challenge.

what do winds speeds look like in the morning?

Good question. They begin increasing intensity by 1pm. Late morning they're sustained near 30mph. Nothing to sneeze at.

Math23x7 wrote:It's interesting that one year ago at this time, I looked at the 0Z RGEM and screamed "MADONNE!" in excitement about the imminent blizzard that was upon us.  And now, I look at the 0Z RGEM tonight and we see a cold rain storm for NYC/LI that looks to go into Tuesday as well...

That's depressing

TheAresian wrote:Is the GFS underestimating precip? Those totals look a little low unless I missed a post about something changing.

Yea...not buying it. Sticking with NAM/RGEM on this one.

Thanks haha and also, how do you make multiple quotes? I have yet to figure that out lmao

I'm gonna head to bed ladies and gents. I'm beat from tracking, so I'll see what I wake up to and adjust my thinking accordingly. Good night, all!!

rb924119 wrote:I'm gonna head to bed ladies and gents. I'm beat from tracking, so I'll see what I wake up to and adjust my thinking accordingly. Good night, all!!

Same here! Night

winds already gusting past 30mph at local airports. models keep pushing the precip back as it looks mainly dry through 7pm...


look at surface temps. we just missed out on big time snow event,

algae888 wrote:winds already gusting past 30mph at local airports. models keep pushing the precip back as it looks mainly dry through 7pm...


look at surface temps. we just missed out on big time snow event,

al that's teally weird that the precipe has been pushed from originally sun night now to maybe monday night. I dunno if I buy that. At least that will make my trip back easier.

Winds have been gusting into the 30s already

skinsfan1177 wrote:Winds have been gusting into the 30s already

that's pretty low nws warning says 45 b4 daybreak. Gosh I'll b so annoyed if nothing really happens even if it isn't snow cuz I told so many people.