January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

How accurate is the HRRR compared to the other models?

track17 wrote:Look at the rainfall totals already decreasing. Nothing the shore has not seen many times. This is nothing more then a bad storm

Track save the "this is nothing more than a bad storm", until after it has moved through please.  It is now officially clear to everyone on the board how you feel about it.  No one should criticize him for it as this is his opinion.  That said "Pot Stirring" posts will be edited or deleted at moderators discretions.  It is ok for us to differ in our opinions.  

Here is my take on the system.  Truth is I am leaning a little towards the way Track is thinking as well, but make no mistake this will absolutely be an IMPACTFUL storm.  It certainly isn't going to be a Sandy, but there will be significant beach erosion up and down the NE, with many areas along the immediate NJ and LI coastal sections seeing the potential for minor to mod flooding due to storm surge. There is no denying this as the track of this system directly leads to a prolonged easterly fetch off the ocean.  

Now lets talk about the winds.  Chances are the vast majority of people on here and in the NE will not have major problems associated with the high winds.  That said there WILL BE power outages, and there will be trees and tree limbs that come down from this storm; esp along the coast.  So even though the majority of us should be just fine, if God forbid you are one of the unlucky ones, and a tree in your back yard comes down onto your house be hopeful that it doesn't crash into your bed room.  Again this will be the exception rather than the norm, but if it happens to you I guarantee you this storm will go down as extremely impactful on your life.  

Most of the maps shown regarding the winds and wind gusts have been the 925 and 850mb maps, not the surface maps.  Therefore the highest winds and what people seem most worried about are up above 2500ft.  Reading through the NWS and looking at various sounding it looks like winds at 850mb (5000ft) will likely stay confined there, however, the winds at 925mb and below have a strong possibility of mixing down under the areas of heaviest precip.  Here is an example.  Here is the latest RGEM showing where the heaviest precip is relative to the winds at 10m and 900mb.  Keep in mind the maps are in kts; therefore multiply any number you wish by 1.15 to get MPG (65kts=74.75mph).  Use the 900mb map to get an idea of where the gusts might be under some of the heavier precip.  THESE ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT and will bring down some trees and knock out some power.   Remember this is the RGEM.  The actual winds may not play out exactly as depicted on this one model, but the consensus amongst the hi res models is pretty close to this in the area I have circled extending down the entire NJ coastline.  





Lets not forget about how impact full the heavy sleet and wet snow may have on our friends to the N&W.  

THIS WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT STORM FOR MANY.  If you think it will be no big deal or the apocolyse, and wish to banter about it then please discuss in banter.

Looks like 500mb tilted neg and the closed Low is almost over top of our surface Low indicating occlusion has already begun. You can see where the pressure falls are pointing off the coast. We will have to see as we go over the next 6hrs how much more the surface Low strengthens before transferring off the coast.

Frank_Wx wrote:Stone Harbor, NJ...already.

Madonne. Long way to go

I agree that track is just trying to stir the pot a little but 30-45 mph winds and 1-2" of rain is a good ole fashioned nor'easter. It will be impactful because of the stupidity and incompetence of our infrastructure and shore dune conditions but nothing I personally haven't lived through dozens of times. God bless the families down south who lost loved ones, but that doesn't mean anything weather wise up here

Stay safe everyone. Power Already out in the next town over from me

syosnow94 wrote:I agree that track is just trying to stir the pot a little but 30-45 mph winds and 1-2" of rain is a good ole fashioned nor'easter. It will be impactful because of the stupidity and incompetence of our infrastructure and shore dune conditions but nothing I personally haven't lived through dozens of times. God bless the families down south who lost loved ones, but that doesn't mean anything weather wise up here

Stay safe everyone. Power Already out in the next town over from me

what town is that syo? I'm in nassau too.

1/2 of Plainview. Nassau/Suffolk border

Not trying to stir the pot at all just being honest

For those of you on LI here is the PSEG power outage map.

https://outagemap.psegliny.com/

Additional power outage links for NY, NJ, Ct and PA

https://outagemap.psegliny.com/
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html
http://outagecenter.pseg.com/external/default.html
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/pa.html?lat=41.04414536431317&lng=-75.56671142578125&zoom=9
https://www.eversource.com/clp/outage/outagemap.aspx

2017 and 30 mph winds cause power outages. We have become Haiti

syosnow94 wrote:2017 and 30 mph winds cause power outages. We have become Haiti

Come on Jimmy. Keep this in banter. This is nothing new. There are tens of millions of people in the region, and there are only like 25 reported outages. Some are prob unrelated to the storm thus far. All it takes is one dead tree branch to knock out a main line to a neighborhood.

Gm all looks like still on similar track from last night. I did note the nws took out to 70mph from the wind warning. I still do not feel that will lessen wind impacts much and as the pics have shown we are already seeing flooding issues and syo next town town already lost powe and this storm is just crawling. It looks very slow.

syosnow94 wrote:2017 and 30 mph winds cause power outages. We have become Haiti

This definitely belongs in banter, but it is funny.

sroc4 wrote:Additional power outage links for NY, NJ, Ct and PA

https://outagemap.psegliny.com/
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html
http://outagecenter.pseg.com/external/default.html
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/pa.html?lat=41.04414536431317&lng=-75.56671142578125&zoom=9
https://www.eversource.com/clp/outage/outagemap.aspx

sroc u forgot coned lol

And here is a great link for outages across the country. Click the state desired. Each state hastheir individual electric companies and their respective coverage maps.

http://www.outagecentral.com/

36 degrees and cloudy here in Binghamton. Calm breeze. Winter Storm Warning still in place but amounts were trimmed back from 6-12 to 4-9

I hope the NAM is wrong. It's nothing but hour after hour of sleet.

Confirmed observation of sleet and significant wind already in Harrisburg, Pa by my best friend. He'll be reporting to me throughout the day aha

Heard Nam delays precip. into NYC area even more now. What is approx. start time for rain here? And what is causing storm to slow down?

NAM is HIGHY CONCERNING for the interior. It develops one of the best CCB regions I've ever seen with incredibly heavy snow from DC to Harrisburg, Williamsport and Ithaca. WWWWWWWW

Gusts to 45 mph ACY

sroc4 wrote:Additional power outage links for NY, NJ, Ct and PA

https://outagemap.psegliny.com/https://omap.prod.pplweb.com/omap/
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html
http://outagecenter.pseg.com/external/default.html
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/pa.html?lat=41.04414536431317&lng=-75.56671142578125&zoom=9
https://www.eversource.com/clp/outage/outagemap.aspx

https://omap.prod.pplweb.com/omap/
Here is the outage map for PP&L as well (what I have):
https://omap.prod.pplweb.com/omap/

Getting gusty here at my parents' in NE PA now too.