January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Ice as per RGEM

NW NJ if it verifies which I think it will they can see about 4" of sleet
Even to me in BC we can see by me calculations about 1" of sleet.

850 Temps crash here









N&W brethren get ready for sleet escapade or sleet fest part duece!

amugs wrote:850 Temps crash here









N&W brethren get ready for sleet escapade or sleet fest part duece!

From 6z to 9z they're actually going up? Correct me if I'm wrong but is 6Z 1AM and 9Z 4AM? They use Greenwich mean times on those correct? Or do I have it wrong.

Gusting into the 60s at times here.

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Gusting into the 60s at times here.

WHAT???? Already?!!

This map confirms his observation

Sustained winds

Max gusts so far today

@Frank- if the 850 temps do in fact crash as expected, any chance of mixing along the coast (Long Island) with heavy precip cooling columns aloft and the heaviest precip scheduled to fall later tonight?

dsix85 wrote:@Frank- if the 850 temps do in fact crash as expected, any chance of mixing along the coast (Long Island) with heavy precip cooling columns aloft and the heaviest precip scheduled to fall later tonight?

The problem is the storm reaches a climax early this evening. It will spend all of today developing along the coast and deepen to around 988mb this evening, but once it stops strengthening 850's are modeled to warm up again. Some area will start as rain, go to snow/sleet, then back to rain once the low stalls near the BM and dynamics no longer look ripe. For Long Island, I do not expect 850's to be cold enough at any point of this storm to support wintry precip.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Gusting into the 60s at times here.

WHAT???? Already?!!

This map confirms his observation

Oh I wasn't saying he was wrong, I was just surprised because I've watching the ASOS stations and the highest I've seen were about 50, with sustained 25-35.

I know, just felt like posting wind maps. They're already quite impressive.

If there was polar energy phasing into this closed 500mb low, we would be looking at an area-wide Roidzilla. Unfortunately, there is another closed 500mb low over the western U.S., so the lack of ridging keeps the polar jet confined mainly to the north.

rb mentioned something called a CCB region earlier. What is a CCB?

i was just ar mantoloking beach nj wow wow wow it was amazing the winds must have been 60mph

Thanks for the write-up Frank. I was holding out some hope to see some form of wintry precip. Can someone share US lightning strikes for our region? Curious to see how strong this thing is once it hits the water and goes gangbusters.

35.1 very light snow and sleet.

Temperature continues it's very slow descent.

sroc4 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:rb mentioned something called a CCB region earlier. What is a CCB?

Good question.  This question comes upo alot.  It stands for Cold air Conveyor Belt.  Here is a link for the details.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t517-ccb-banding-cold-air-conveyor-belt

Thank you.

are the winds going to be getting heavier where i am? also the rain isnt strong at all is it a dry spell?

So it's basically a layer of warm moist air over cold moist air that wrapped around a low?

Frank_Wx wrote:If there was polar energy phasing into this closed 500mb low, we would be looking at an area-wide Roidzilla. Unfortunately, there is another closed 500mb low over the western U.S., so the lack of ridging keeps the polar jet confined mainly to the north.

PLEASE STOP!!!!!!

The moisture is coming up from teh bahamas with lots of warm moist air - a pro met stated on another board this may enhance the winds even more and cause them to over perform once this storm gets NW. Feels it will deepen more than progged. Interesting and somewhat scary.