Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:17 pm

People who are sleeting now are likely to stay frozen

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:18 pm

snow247 wrote:Wow, extremely slippery everywhere. Just pouring sleet. So awesome.

Congrats. It's your winter.

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:18 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:18 pm

Any chance the sleet gets down here and ina meaningful way, its really chilly, doesn't seem right its raining. Remember i am not ON the coast, maybe 15 miles or so inland from lets say battery, maybe bit more.

by **mikeypizano** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:People who are sleeting now are likely to stay frozen

As sleet or changing to snow?

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
snow247 wrote:Wow, extremely slippery everywhere. Just pouring sleet. So awesome.

Congrats. It's your winter.

LOL, its been a lot of "peoples winters this year" This statement never gets old or not funny Frank, great sense of humor during crummy times of a storm.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:20 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:31.5 and sleeting heavily. Ground already getting white.

Better than rain or freezing rain.

Same here, CP, but 32.0 degrees. 93%, 29.43

Ground getting white.It's going to be bad up here.

Latest NAM at 18 Z showed 9 straight hours of moderate to heavy sleet with snow mixing in up there boys. From the qpf you guys are looking at 4" plus in some isolated locations but it looks like that might be an underestimation.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Any chance the sleet gets down here and ina meaningful way, its really chilly, doesn't seem right its raining. Remember i am not ON the coast, maybe 15 miles or so inland from lets say battery, maybe bit more.

Actually, the NAM had sleet for NYC Metro, including west LI, overnight. There could be a 1 to 3 hour period of sleet.

mikeypizano wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:People who are sleeting now are likely to stay frozen

As sleet or changing to snow?

Depends on elevation, but I think the snow is confined to central PA near State College. Elevations of NEPA too.

by **2004blackwrx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:22 pm

This storm is becoming very exciting for us north of 84. Going to lead to issues but for now I will enjoy the excitement of these rare conditions

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:23 pm

I actually still have great confidence in the impact map I posted yesterday.

by **devsman** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:24 pm

Winds definitely picking up here in South shore of long island. Gusting past 40-45. And constant gusts

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:24 pm

Wine is poured...now time to track, observe, and wait for the changeover.

by **hyde345** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:24 pm

33 and moderate sleet in Hyde Park.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Any chance the sleet gets down here and ina meaningful way, its really chilly, doesn't seem right its raining. Remember i am not ON the coast, maybe 15 miles or so inland from lets say battery, maybe bit more.

Actually, the NAM had sleet for NYC Metro, including west LI, overnight. There could be a 1 to 3 hour period of sleet.

mikeypizano wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:People who are sleeting now are likely to stay frozen

As sleet or changing to snow?

Depends on elevation, but I think the snow is confined to central PA near State College. Elevations of NEPA too.

Oh, ok so maybe, in comment to you saying winds may pick up around 9pm to 11pm, you may be right on target, NWS boston wind warning says highest winds start 10-11pm till 6am. So an hr earlier here for earliest sounds bout right if they are right.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I hope this storm goes to hell

Frank_Wx wrote:Given the latest development from guidance I figured I'll put out one last update with an Impact Map. I don't have time to write-up a synopsis, but most of what I said yesterday still stands. The biggest change is the 500mb, 750mb, and 850mb low's are expected to track just off the coast according to guidance. This would pull low level cold air closer to the coast and bring about more wintry precipitation. To me, the biggest concern remains high winds and coastal flooding. We'll see how models trend with the wintry precip later tonight, but I feel that would be mainly confined to interior and N&W of NYC. Don't be surprised to hear thunder tomorrow. This storm looks ferocious on current radar imagery.

My posts from yesterday. I stand by them, though admit pink could have been extended further south to encompass more of western NJ. I also think some places could see greater than 3 inches of sleet. But given the complexity of the setup I think it's a decent call for now.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:28 pm

Took a peek outside. Plain old rain. Temp 38* This sucks.

by **dkodgis** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:28 pm

Winds are fairly quiet and it was just a very light rain, almost a mist. But I just went out there at about 7:30 pm and Yowzah! there is heavy sleet on everything and it looks like it is icing over. So if that trend continues, sleet falling now and everything icing over...by the morning there will be hell to pay with power lines, trees, etc. Real ugly business it is.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:29 pm

devsman wrote:Winds definitely picking up here in South shore of long island. Gusting past 40-45. And constant gusts

Jon will be there soon.

aiannone wrote:Wine is poured...now time to track, observe, and wait for the changeover.

Red or white? If red, what type?

hyde345 wrote:33 and moderate sleet in Hyde Park.

Congrats

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Any chance the sleet gets down here and ina meaningful way, its really chilly, doesn't seem right its raining. Remember i am not ON the coast, maybe 15 miles or so inland from lets say battery, maybe bit more.

Actually, the NAM had sleet for NYC Metro, including west LI, overnight. There could be a 1 to 3 hour period of sleet.

mikeypizano wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:People who are sleeting now are likely to stay frozen

As sleet or changing to snow?

Depends on elevation, but I think the snow is confined to central PA near State College. Elevations of NEPA too.

Oh, ok so maybe, in comment to you saying winds may pick up around 9pm to 11pm, you may be right on target, NWS boston wind warning says highest winds start 10-11pm till 6am. So an hr earlier here for earliest sounds bout right if they are right.

I mean...yea. Let's go with I'm right.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I hope this storm goes to hell

Frank_Wx wrote:Given the latest development from guidance I figured I'll put out one last update with an Impact Map. I don't have time to write-up a synopsis, but most of what I said yesterday still stands. The biggest change is the 500mb, 750mb, and 850mb low's are expected to track just off the coast according to guidance. This would pull low level cold air closer to the coast and bring about more wintry precipitation. To me, the biggest concern remains high winds and coastal flooding. We'll see how models trend with the wintry precip later tonight, but I feel that would be mainly confined to interior and N&W of NYC. Don't be surprised to hear thunder tomorrow. This storm looks ferocious on current radar imagery.

My posts from yesterday. I stand by them, though admit pink could have been extended further south to encompass more of western NJ. I also think some places could see greater than 3 inches of sleet. But given the complexity of the setup I think it's a decent call for now.

Coming upon 2.00 inches already

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Took a peek outside. Plain old rain. Temp 38* This sucks.

I read that as pee. Really glad there's a k at the end.

dkodgis wrote:Winds are fairly quiet and it was just a very light rain, almost a mist. But I just went out there at about 7:30 pm and Yowzah! there is heavy sleet on everything and it looks like it is icing over. So if that trend continues, sleet falling now and everything icing over...by the morning there will be hell to pay with power lines, trees, etc. Real ugly business it is.

Congrats

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:31 pm

Sorry wish I could see south shore LI but no way im driving there LOL, it is what it is, maybe thats sign they are intensifying like u said and it will creep north. Trying to stay neutral at this point, no sense in get upset bout something I can't control.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:31 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I hope this storm goes to hell

Frank_Wx wrote:Given the latest development from guidance I figured I'll put out one last update with an Impact Map. I don't have time to write-up a synopsis, but most of what I said yesterday still stands. The biggest change is the 500mb, 750mb, and 850mb low's are expected to track just off the coast according to guidance. This would pull low level cold air closer to the coast and bring about more wintry precipitation. To me, the biggest concern remains high winds and coastal flooding. We'll see how models trend with the wintry precip later tonight, but I feel that would be mainly confined to interior and N&W of NYC. Don't be surprised to hear thunder tomorrow. This storm looks ferocious on current radar imagery.

My posts from yesterday. I stand by them, though admit pink could have been extended further south to encompass more of western NJ. I also think some places could see greater than 3 inches of sleet. But given the complexity of the setup I think it's a decent call for now.

Coming upon 2.00 inches already

You'll get very close to 3 inches. Not sure you reach it. Any flooding? I know the surface low is approaching Delmarva now.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Took a peek outside. Plain old rain. Temp 38* This sucks.

I read that as pee. Really glad there's a k at the end.

dkodgis wrote:Winds are fairly quiet and it was just a very light rain, almost a mist. But I just went out there at about 7:30 pm and Yowzah! there is heavy sleet on everything and it looks like it is icing over. So if that trend continues, sleet falling now and everything icing over...by the morning there will be hell to pay with power lines, trees, etc. Real ugly business it is.

Congrats

LOL, pee ya that would be funny as hell if true and TMI. FYI I just realized I surpassed 11,000 posts, damn frank I better not surpass u, if so theres something wrong there LOL

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:33 pm

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

nutleyblizzard wrote:Took a peek outside. Plain old rain. Temp 38* This sucks.

I read that as pee. Really glad there's a k at the end.

facepalm

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:34 pm

aiannone wrote:Wine is poured...now time to track, observe, and wait for the changeover.

Red or white? If red, what type?

Red, of course, and a California Malbec

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:37 pm

aiannone wrote:
aiannone wrote:Wine is poured...now time to track, observe, and wait for the changeover.

Red or white? If red, what type?

Red, of course, and a California Malbec

You sir deserve a reward. My family drinks Italian wine...for obvious reasons...but I secretly like California. Malbec, Sangiovese, and Cab are normally my go to.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:38 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Took a peek outside. Plain old rain. Temp 38* This sucks.

I read that as pee. Really glad there's a k at the end.

Alright I've had too much fun on here. A Nor'easter bringing us rain (mostly) in January. Gotta love it.

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