Watching November 9th to 12th - First Snow?

jmanley32 wrote:Oh boy gfs is now on board with cmc and euro for next Tues. Still 7 days out but liking we have snow to track. It is a big concern to see double digit snow with leaves still on some trees luckily all these winds have taken most down.

just saw 00z euro ,i t was close but not much of a storm compared to gfs and cmc.  I do not think we will know much until the end of the weekend.

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Oh boy gfs is now on board with cmc and euro for next Tues. Still 7 days out but liking we have snow to track. It is a big concern to see double digit snow with leaves still on some trees luckily all these winds have taken most down.

just saw 00z euro ,i t was close but not much of a storm compared to gfs and cmc.  I do not think we will know much until the end of the weekend.

Jman, good point on the leaves.
Up by me in the LHV, 90% of the leaves are down, but in mid Bergen County NJ, 60 or 70% of the trees still have leaves.That early october snowstorm we had 5 or 6 years ago resulted in widespread breaking of tree limbs everywhere aas a result of heavy,wet snow clinging to the remaining leaves.Another reason I don't like early heavy snow in October and November.I would prefer this possible snow next week to be in mid December.

aiannone wrote:Most of the major models like Tuesday. Bonus is that cold air is locked in prior to the storm. We just need the moisture.

jmanley32 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Oh boy gfs is now on board with cmc and euro for next Tues. Still 7 days out but liking we have snow to track. It is a big concern to see double digit snow with leaves still on some trees luckily all these winds have taken most down.

just saw 00z euro ,i t was close but not much of a storm compared to gfs and cmc.  I do not think we will know much until the end of the weekend.

Jman, good point on the leaves.
Up by me in the LHV, 90% of the leaves are down, but in mid Bergen County NJ, 60 or 70% of the trees still have leaves.That early october snowstorm we had 5 or 6 years ago resulted in widespread breaking of tree limbs everywhere aas a result of heavy,wet snow clinging to the remaining leaves.Another reason I don't like early heavy snow in October and November.I would prefer this possible snow next week to be in mid December.

your losing track of time my friend lol 2011 nearly 9 years ago!! It was bad here too lost power for 2 days. My parents in ct even worse as it was after Irene and she hit CT worse than ny.

jmanley32 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Oh boy gfs is now on board with cmc and euro for next Tues. Still 7 days out but liking we have snow to track. It is a big concern to see double digit snow with leaves still on some trees luckily all these winds have taken most down.

just saw 00z euro ,i t was close but not much of a storm compared to gfs and cmc.  I do not think we will know much until the end of the weekend.

Jman, good point on the leaves.
Up by me in the LHV, 90% of the leaves are down, but in mid Bergen County NJ, 60 or 70% of the trees still have leaves.That early october snowstorm we had 5 or 6 years ago resulted in widespread breaking of tree limbs everywhere aas a result of heavy,wet snow clinging to the remaining leaves.Another reason I don't like early heavy snow in October and November.I would prefer this possible snow next week to be in mid December.

your losing track of time my friend lol 2011 nearly 9 years ago!! It was bad here too lost power for 2 days. My parents in ct even worse as it was after Irene and she hit CT worse than ny.

sroc4 wrote:7days out guys. Waaaaay ahead of ourselves analyzing the individual pieces of energy and posting about snow maps and such on operational models. Pattern recognition first. Need the weekend at the earliest to really start analyzing any details on the operational models.

amugs wrote:Here are the players

Snow88 wrote:GFS looks good even for the coast

amugs wrote:Anyone take a gander at the cold next week - Jesus its January Polar Vortex type cold. If it were January with these temps Louis Cifer himself would be crying UNCLE!!!









Jesus, near single digits even to the coast?! thats insame even for january. Yikes, not gonna have any issues snowing and sticking if these temps are true and we get a storm.

rb924119 wrote:Regarding next week threat:

“Just my .02 here, based on very coarse and quick peeks, but I my early incling is that’s this will end up as either an I-95 special or a coastal scraper. Reasons being are the following, and they include the ideas presented heretofore by @33andrain, @CCB!, @Allsnow, @Armando S, and @PB GFI. There is an overwhelming number of factors that I like to look at when trying diagnose the most likely storm track/evolution, as those of you who have read my thoughts regularly last winter will probably remember. In this case, we would have the following: 70N/70E ridge, -EPO, -WPO, +PNA triplet, favorable downturn of >1°C in Niño 1.2 at an appropriate lead time of 2-3 weeks, AND favorable downturn in the SOI at an appropriate lead time of 5-7 days. These are only counterveiled by positive SST anomalies in the Western Atlantic/Gulf, MJO entering P6-7, and lack of a -NAO. Therefore, there is a clear bias towards an overall significantly colder/suppressed evolution.

However, the positioning of the Western North American ridge axis is a bit far back, and so will work to shift the storm track given the general wavelengths. That being said, the restructuring of this ridge is important because as it restructures, a piece folds over into the prime-time region with a (what I’ll call) a pseudo axis over Boise, Idaho. That should prevent a coastal hugger/inland runner scenario in conjunction with the other indices. As Geoff said, I am concerned with a miss wide-right, but I think the initial ridge axis placement saves us from that, while the restructuring of it and the other indices lead to a favorable evolution for the coastal plain in the long run. If I have time, I’d like to dig deeper, but that’s what I saw in approximately five minutes lol”