Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

jimv45 wrote:I am about an hour from Mike expecting mostly snow here in Saugerties. Hope no ice. Some of those ice predictions are scary to my south hope snow or rain for those folks.

Jim, you are likely to see sleet and ZR also especially on Tuesday as areas south of Albany will see some mixing. Hopefully you can get an inch or 2 of snow also in beginning and when low tracks east and precip turns back to snow. It's gonna be a mess for me.

Jim, 3k nam looks pretty good for you as far as precip type. It looks likes snow/sleet mix but you should get a few inches of snow by the time it ends and hopefully very little ZR.

Yes Hyde expecting 2-4- 3-6 with little sleet mixing in, not expecting very much ZR that looks to stay to my south.

Any chance this trends back to original system? What is making the front end fizzle? I mean none 5he models had that till nam showed it.

I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly. The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most. GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did. Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.

heehaw453 wrote:I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly.  The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most.  GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did.  Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.

True the GFS never had the waa modeled the way euro did but it did have low cutting to Great Lakes for days and has been inconsistent with the evolution as well. We will see how it plays out.

heehaw453 wrote:I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly.  The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most.  GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did.  Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.

For this it maybe right but he track was absolutely atrocious from a lakes cutter rainstorm - yeah that's gonna verify, to a Apps runner to a low that's get killed by the PA/WV border now. The EURO has been steadfast on a snow to ice to rain for the coast and a snow to ice event for inland since Wednesday. If I cold post the last 16 runs. of teh GFS evolution it would be comical.
It may not be what the EURO was showing at 0z or 12Z yesterday but it can be impact for a large swath of NNJ and LHV. This is concerning for Tuesday morning in NNJ
Lightish precip


Sub Freezing Temps I78 North


NYC Metro not a problem nor LI but above I 78 it could be really dicy and icy

The cold arctic push behind this is pretty intense for this time of the year

18z NAM coming in colder

amugs wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly.  The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most.  GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did.  Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.

For this it maybe right but he track was absolutely atrocious from a lakes cutter rainstorm - yeah that's gonna verify, to a Apps runner to a low that's get killed by the PA/WV border now. The EURO has been steadfast on a snow to ice to rain for the coast and a snow to ice event for inland since Wednesday. If I cold post the last 16 runs. of teh GFS evolution it would be comical.
It may not be what the EURO was showing at 0z or 12Z yesterday but it can be impact for a large swath of NNJ and LHV. This is concerning for Tuesday morning in NNJ
Lightish precip


Sub Freezing Temps I78 North


NYC Metro not a problem nor LI but above I 78 it could be really dicy and icy

The cold arctic push behind this is pretty intense for this time of the year

Fwiw euro had it cutting too on a few runs. It was never going to be an all snow event regardless of whether it cut or not.

4-6” on Saturday 0z from TTN to route 80. Now showing 1/2”. That is NAM like. Also did similar
thing with beginning of December storm albeit that was within 24 hours.

The Euro did have cuter idea then made an abrupt and correct change. The GFS and the lead met who writes the program for this model Dr. Alpert has been working on correcting its "stubborn" bias and how slow it is to evolve with such SWFE.
Listen, I don't care if it showed 4" then 1",btw we are not seeing a 1/2" of snow N of I80 in NNJ, the fact being the euro lost the cutter idea on this said storm days ago whilst the GFS went from a lakes cutter to a apps runner to what it is now.
Has the Euro been stellar no not at all, but it started to see this evolution a hell of a lot earlier than the GFS. Also, the ice accretion though overdone to a degree will come to fruition over NNJ and the LHV and EPA.
Just got an alert from NWS on my phone for a WWA for up to 2" of snow and .20 of ice for my area in NNJ monday evening through 6pm Tuesday night.
As I posted the temps map, the CAD is going to be tough to scour if you put down a couple inches of snow meaning it will hang on longer.
Now cast time ahead.
New HRRR model.from Superstorm on 33&rain site

If the mesoscale models are right. 20 miles to nw of 95 should prepare for an ice storm. Especially RGEM.

My sense now is that we get a few hours of light snow in the afternoon then everyone north of I-78 should be on alert for a fair amount of icing Monday evening into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. The odds are even greater north of I-80. My area may be just far enough south that we creep above 32* and go to plain rain by mid-evening -- but even that is dicey. The further north you go the longer it will take for surface temps to warm up so I wouldn't rule out some real ice problems from this for many in NNJ and LHV.

heehaw453 wrote:If the mesoscale models are right. 20 miles to nw of 95 should prepare for an ice storm. Especially RGEM.

Greeat thats about white plains NY where I work. Is this still tomorrow or tuesday?

MOG, The ice is crazy look at that intense band, it is pretty close to coast on HDRPS. Wow

HMMM, this doesnt look good, into the city on 12z?!

Meso models showing NE winds. That’s kiss of death for CAD and ice storm. NAO and weak storm allow slp to cut underneath.

If rgem is right this will be 1/3-1/2+” ice accretion. Hopefully mesos are wrong.

heehaw453 wrote:Meso models showing NE winds. That’s kiss of death for CAD and ice storm. NAO and weak storm allow slp to cut underneath.  

If rgem is right this will be 1/3-1/2+” ice accretion. Hopefully mesos are wrong.

This is gonna be 100% nowcast IMO, where the icing sets up, how long it persists. rgem has over a inch in some areas of PA and NJ, thats horrific.

HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.

Dear Lord!! I find it hard to believe the city sees that much but just outside and certainly inland, but omg highest 2.23 inches!!! Thats crippling as mugs would put it. Even 0.76 as it shows around city is terrible, this all looks to come during the day tuesday too, not so much monday into tueesday morning.

jmanley32 wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.

Dear Lord!! I find it hard to believe the city sees that much but just outside and certainly inland, but omg highest 2.23 inches!!! Thats crippling as mugs would put it. Even 0.76 as it shows around city is terrible, this all looks to come during the day tuesday too, not so much monday into tueesday morning.

Those amounts are a little ridiculous. 1/2 inch ice storms only happen about once every 10 years. I find it funny that this system has had a 1000 different solutions so far.

hyde345 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.

Dear Lord!! I find it hard to believe the city sees that much but just outside and certainly inland, but omg highest 2.23 inches!!! Thats crippling as mugs would put it. Even 0.76 as it shows around city is terrible, this all looks to come during the day tuesday too, not so much monday into tueesday morning.

Those amounts are a little ridiculous. 1/2 inch ice storms only happen about once every 10 years. I find it funny that this system has had a 1000 different solutions so far.

If it is true everyone is going to be caught off guard. rgem is at its end range lets see what it shows tomorrow 12z.

EURO bring the snow swath back - picking up on more precip on teh front end. The model dance ...

amugs wrote:EURO bring the snow swath back - picking up on more precip on teh front end. The model dance ...

LMAO good lord, that ice map on hi-res rgem has me getting 1.0-1.25 ice accretion thats really bad, Euro is back with ice again too about 0.25-0.5 for my area. Lordy this is going to catch people off guard in one way or another, timing does not even seem to be nailed down.  Also timing doesnt look like anything starts until 03z Tuesday, thats way off from tomorrow afternoon, why does frank still have banner up saying tomorrow? This is showing on most models to now be a tuesday into late tuesday night event.

Tom Petty (Your Favorite CP)  Euro saying Wont Back Down concerning ice accumulations

NAM says I support you EURO.




Last holdout?? Anyone? Anyone?

GFS.

Winter Weather Advisory from MON 1:00 PM EST until TUE 7:00 AM EST
1 of 2
Action Recommended
Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central and southeast Pennsylvania
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow begins Monday morning and then will mix with sleet and freezing rain Monday afternoon. Precipitation then changes to plain rain Monday night. Rain then continues through Tuesday before tapering off Tuesday night.

They are riding the GFS and may bust hard Irish.
If people follow this they and these maps like the Euro and NAM come to fruition there will be many unhappy peeps.