Tropical Storm Isaias
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.
Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right![]()
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.
Models are for guidance! lol Mother Nature will do what she damn well pleases!
![lol!](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/lol.gif)
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Big storm coming through.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
jmanley32 wrote:lol true enough . but there is good consensus.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.
Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right![]()
Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...
![Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 Track_10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/track_10.png)
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:lol true enough . but there is good consensus.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.
Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right![]()
Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...
Scott I’m feeling you on this. I said earlier these storms always trend eastward (well not always, but often) so I wouldn’t be surprised if that inland NJ track becomes a just off the NJ coast track.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
hey hats off to you if your right. Just means worse rain and wind for the area rather than just wind. Though you are talking a very small jog.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:lol true enough . but there is good consensus.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.
Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right![]()
Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
that could be bad too might allow him to msintain more and obviously the rain would be more impactful.billg315 wrote:sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:lol true enough . but there is good consensus.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.
Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right![]()
Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...
Scott I’m feeling you on this. I said earlier these storms always trend eastward (well not always, but often) so I wouldn’t be surprised if that inland NJ track becomes a just off the NJ coast track.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
omg it’s really Coming down By me Heavy rain very windy And lots of lightningjmanley32 wrote:Big storm coming through.
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Yeah i got soaked had run out thought i had time, nope. winds whipped for a minute, some lightning, nothing like i think the storm a week ago. and this is nothing tomorrow potentially sustained winds 40-50mph gusts higher especially now with a stronger storm, even if a bit east i think nyc and just N & W still see winds but more rain. Whatever happens happens, oh we will likely have to contend with some tornado warnings too, and NWS said a tornado watch is likely.frank 638 wrote:omg it’s really Coming down By me Heavy rain very windy And lots of lightningjmanley32 wrote:Big storm coming through.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
jmanley32 wrote:I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
Oh I think even if this shifts East a bit, you’ll still see winds. Just heard that the power companies are preparing for a multi-day power outage event. I knew I should have stocked up on junk food.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Yeah i got a email from coned earlier but they always do that, its just a generic prep letter, well im not so keen on having no power for multiple days but i guess i cant have a good wind storm without that potential, its go be freaking swealtering inside if so. Order 711 door dash lol, you could get out now or in the morning, it wont be bad till after noon id guess.billg315 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
Oh I think even if this shifts East a bit, you’ll still see winds. Just heard that the power companies are preparing for a multi-day power outage event. I knew I should have stocked up on junk food.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Oh wow, yeah well he is intensifying unexpectedly and with the enhancement from the jet he may maintain near cat 1 up here now. maybe dropping to 70 or 75mph, imagine if all the ts warnings are upped to hurricane warnings, people will go nuts. doubt that happens but who knows. Con ed is def not saying anything like that and im very close to the coast.billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
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weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
i hope they are wrong With the winds because Last thing we need is power outages or worse especially dealing with this heat Stay safe everyonebillg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Jones beach?, I'm located a block from Hoestra,Meadowbrook pkwy is five min straight to Jones beach..long day tomorrow
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
still strengethening, 984mb.
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
RI Mom means Rapid Intensification to clear up my language for you and everyone else who had the same question
he is very impressive now and my friend in Oak Island, NC said the surf just went nuts about an hour ago and winds are much stronger now.
he is very impressive now and my friend in Oak Island, NC said the surf just went nuts about an hour ago and winds are much stronger now.
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
PSEG had a conference call with OEM people today, they are bringing in 800 technicians to NJ for tomorrow. They are taking it VERY seriously!
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
tahts good, coned are POS, they dont prepare much and then we wait even longer cuz of it. down to 983mb jeeze, RI for sure.Dunnzoo wrote:billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
PSEG had a conference call with OEM people today, they are bringing in 800 technicians to NJ for tomorrow. They are taking it VERY seriously!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Call me crazy but im hearing on other boards that due to the jet etc and going hybrid extratropical etc he could actually maintain at hurricane strength and many TS warnings would have to be converted to hurricane warnings. I do not think thats impossible, so far this storm has done a lot of surprises for better and worse.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
WOW...
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
FOR NJ
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:
Do not be on the roads unless absolutely necessary
If you MUST drive, take it slow, use caution, and leave extra time to get to your destination
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:
![:ballot_box_with_check: ☑](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/2611.png?v=2.2.7)
![:ballot_box_with_check: ☑](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/2611.png?v=2.2.7)
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Re: Tropical Storm Isaias
Wow, NY should follow suit, just to be safe, Cuomo is smart enough to do so.amugs wrote:FOR NJ
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:Do not be on the roads unless absolutely necessary
If you MUST drive, take it slow, use caution, and leave extra time to get to your destination
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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