December 2020 Observations and Discussion
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algae888
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27 posters
Page 7 of 11
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
frank 638 wrote:The weather channel already has me for next wed into wed night for 6 to 8 inches for snow I know it’s way to early for snow amounts and things will change
That's just ridiculous, way too early to put out accumulations!
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Pump the breaks for Monday system 1st peeps - told ya'll it was coming North
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Eo9PiZGW8AQrSZU?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo9PiZGW8AQrSZU?format=jpg&name=medium)
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?
Not sure what you're looking at Jon but GFS, Euro and CMC have all shifted north with the track and precip shield over the last 2-3days significantly. Not enough to get me excited just yet but look for yourself.
CURRENT:
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png)
00Z yesterday:
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Thats Monday, I am taking about Wed/Thurs, thats what I thought mugs was talking about.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?
Not sure what you're looking at Jon but GFS, Euro and CMC have all shifted north with the track and precip shield over the last 2-3days significantly. Not enough to get me excited just yet but look for yourself.
CURRENT:
00Z yesterday:
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Thats Monday, I am taking about Wed/Thurs, thats what I thought mugs was talking about. Ohhh he was talk bout Monday, so potential double wammy nice, the Euro he posted whats the snow map look like just for fun?>sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?
Not sure what you're looking at Jon but GFS, Euro and CMC have all shifted north with the track and precip shield over the last 2-3days significantly. Not enough to get me excited just yet but look for yourself.
CURRENT:
00Z yesterday:
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Monday on EPS says Northward boyz now mush!!!!!!!!!!!!
From Snowman on another board
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd36c1d1fcf4.png.3cfebd9373b88040133909c431ea934a](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/5fd36c1d1fcf4.png.3cfebd9373b88040133909c431ea934a.png)
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd36c568a479.png.335ec9e8a01957dfaf3471ca24917ef4](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/5fd36c568a479.png.335ec9e8a01957dfaf3471ca24917ef4.png)
GFS not budging - battle of the models coming into play we'll see
From Snowman on another board
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd36c1d1fcf4.png.3cfebd9373b88040133909c431ea934a](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/5fd36c1d1fcf4.png.3cfebd9373b88040133909c431ea934a.png)
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd36c568a479.png.335ec9e8a01957dfaf3471ca24917ef4](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/5fd36c568a479.png.335ec9e8a01957dfaf3471ca24917ef4.png)
GFS not budging - battle of the models coming into play we'll see
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Vector Victor!!
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Eo9ynqLXEAosII7?format=jpg&name=900x900](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo9ynqLXEAosII7?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
I will take my chances w.r.t precip types with a strong high pinned in Quebec. If A transfer of energy to the coast occurs sooner than later probably keeps mid levels < freezing for coastal plain. Can it cut west? I guess so especially if the ridge out west is flatter, but I'm more on board with white than wet on this threat. I just think there is enough synoptically to have interest piqued.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Lets keep Monday maps and discussion in here for now and Wed/Thurs discussion in the LR thread to just keep things clean. At some point in the next day or so we can make the Mid week threat its own thread. Love the fact that we are tracking!!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Irish. I moved your comments to the LR thread.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Irish likes this post
Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Big shift North on new Euro nice little appetizer before the meal on Wednesday 3 to 6 in city north and west 12z Euro
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
algae888 wrote:Big shift North on new Euro nice little appetizer before the meal on Wednesday 3 to 6 in city north and west 12z Euro
Thnak yo for backing me up with that - GFS not budging but we'll see come 18Z.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
amugs wrote:algae888 wrote:Big shift North on new Euro nice little appetizer before the meal on Wednesday 3 to 6 in city north and west 12z Euro
Thnak yo for backing me up with that - GFS not budging but we'll see come 18Z.
Looks like a little phasing with the northern stream this run. was worried it was going to mess up the wave on Wednesday but that did not happen with such a strong block
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CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Now that's a boom baby!!
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607979600-SEFOB7eX3vY](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/ma/instant_ptype/1607688000/1607979600-SEFOB7eX3vY.png)
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607979600-SEFOB7eX3vY](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/ma/instant_ptype/1607688000/1607979600-SEFOB7eX3vY.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
EPS says hello again - BL temps are cut off by the Driscoll bridge on this run
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-RZoZMY5tsQU](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nystate/t2m_f/1607688000/1607968800-RZoZMY5tsQU.png)
925
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-9W3Nbe89Sc0](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nystate/t925/1607688000/1607968800-9W3Nbe89Sc0.png)
850's
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-qQtpYwLdeUs](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nystate/t850/1607688000/1607968800-qQtpYwLdeUs.png)
EPS
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd3c0ad5dcc6.png.451602633afde84637e7ba48be02c8db](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/5fd3c0ad5dcc6.png.451602633afde84637e7ba48be02c8db.png)
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-RZoZMY5tsQU](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nystate/t2m_f/1607688000/1607968800-RZoZMY5tsQU.png)
925
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-9W3Nbe89Sc0](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nystate/t925/1607688000/1607968800-9W3Nbe89Sc0.png)
850's
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-qQtpYwLdeUs](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nystate/t850/1607688000/1607968800-qQtpYwLdeUs.png)
EPS
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd3c0ad5dcc6.png.451602633afde84637e7ba48be02c8db](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/5fd3c0ad5dcc6.png.451602633afde84637e7ba48be02c8db.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
sweet!! The city better pave before Monday or we are in trouble they got raised and open manholes!!amugs wrote:Now that's a boom baby!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Beautiful pictures. Is it okay to cry?
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
Not yet, don't jinx it lol, cry when you see it snowing like crazy : )Grselig wrote:Beautiful pictures. Is it okay to cry?
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Grselig likes this post
Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
smart move janet!! Yes it was a nice day. And will be anice weekend, we will know about monday for sure by Sunday, but even then you know nowcasting can be tense.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion
NAM says yes EURO, did the upgrade in the spring bring back its KING CROWN?
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Nam.png.7727f746f8e7c06a77cc14a0ebfca3b0](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/nam.png.7727f746f8e7c06a77cc14a0ebfca3b0.png)
![December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Nam.png.7727f746f8e7c06a77cc14a0ebfca3b0](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/nam.png.7727f746f8e7c06a77cc14a0ebfca3b0.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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