12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

frank 638 wrote:So I’m guessing for my area in the Bronx it’s going from snow to sleet to crap I just told everyone we’re getting a lot of snow

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So If I am reading all the analysis from our top forcasters here is that this is no longer a big storm for down here? And that its NW is correct and could go even more NW which would give us like nothing or just rain? I have so many people asking me and I got no clue what to tell them cuz the pro mets are still calling a big storm and my news pop ups are flooded with huge storm for NYC.

Tell them 0 to 18"

billg315 wrote:Reading the Mt. Holly discussion from mid-morning they seem well aware of the NW trend and the increasing risk of WAA infiltrating the storm and causing a mixing of precipitation. But it seems despite that they're still confident in this producing a foot or more of snow north and west of the I-95 corridor and in the I-95 corridor still believe several inches are likely even with mixing. So either they believe we've seen as much as we're going to see of a NW drift or they're just slow to back off the WSW they issued early this morning.
I always feel a lot of the angst here is based off of the expectations game too. I've watched these model runs and even on some of the ones that seem disappointing, I'm still getting about 10" of snow as are many others. If a week ago you told me you'll get 6-10" of snow from a storm next Wednesday I would have said, "where do I sign." But when you start thinking in terms of 18-24" suddenly when the models correct lower to the high-singled digits, it seems like the sky is falling (pardon the pun).
Now, if this goes predominately rain, or I get dry slotted and I end up with 1-3" (like that one God awful model run earlier today that CP so appropriately commented on), yeah, I'd be VERY disappointed. But I'm hard pressed to say that if I end up even in a 4-8" range that I shouldn't be happy with that.
So I've yet to see many model runs that still wouldn't produce a significant snow event for many on this board, even if it ends up not being a mega-storm.

Irish wrote:TWC just adjusted snow totals for my area in CNJ from 12-18 down to 7-12.  Still a very nice storm but the move N&W seems to be happening. Time will tell...

phil155 wrote:

Irish wrote:TWC just adjusted snow totals for my area in CNJ from 12-18 down to 7-12.  Still a very nice storm but the move N&W seems to be happening. Time will tell...

7-12 sounds about right imho, there is too great of a chance that here in central NJ we see mixing, I hope we can avoid a change over but mixing seems somewhat likely to me. I think in this area we have to hope the mixing is short lived or we will for sure see the lower end of predicted totals and may even under perform. I hope not but it is part of living in teh area we live in

jimv45 wrote:Jman some of our members are going to get a big storm just don't know who yet, it could be up in Albany with Math! Even me up in Ulster I was thinking this would be south of me now I could be in a great spot or the bigger snows go to my north and west time will tell!

algae888 wrote:I believe the National Weather Service and other meteorologist do not make their forecast based off of what models show especially snow Maps. You have to look at the big picture and the features that the models are showing and how that has historically played out in their forecast area. At 1039 mb Arctic high sitting over Quebec with dense cold air and dew point in the single digits with Gulf and Atlantic moisture being drawn into it will always produce a 6in snowfall for the New York City metro area especially with the near record 50/50 low even if it's not in the exact spot that we needed to be. I've seen waa run into a cold high pressure many times in my life and they always produce again if we're looking for 12 to 24 inches of pure snow that very rarely happens here. The National Weather Service showing White Plains in the 12 to 18 inch range is not unreasonable and if they end up with 8 that is still a significant snowstorm for them. It's not turning to rain in White Plains during this event and sleet or freezing rain may end up being a worse Hazard than having a foot to a foot and a half of snow. National Weather Service did the right thing and warning people so soon with this system as it will be a high impact event

SoulSingMG wrote:Slammed by WRF (FWIW)...

heehaw453 wrote:I guess Mt Holly will wait until tonight to make changes as this was just issued pending further model output.  They have a large blend of model outputs for obtaining the snow totals.

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:I guess Mt Holly will wait until tonight to make changes as this was just issued pending further model output.  They have a large blend of model outputs for obtaining the snow totals.

I love how where the red ends next to Upton on hot one map it's orange. They don't have to make some kind of agreement between the two coverage areas for it to make sense if put together like a puzzles?

algae888 wrote:Jman 6 to 12 in for Westchester 4 to 8-in for the city

Irish wrote:TWC just adjusted snow totals for my area in CNJ from 12-18 down to 7-12.  Still a very nice storm but the move N&W seems to be happening. Time will tell...