01/31 Possible Winter Storm

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Not 'consolidating' means lower qpf and/or snow rates i'm assuming, thus lowering the totals.

My experience at least half of all well formed coastal lows intensify more than forecast even in the short range. I pray that's our biggest issue with this storm lol

We shall see, but from a current stand point its looking good for most on the board, might be some concern for NYC immediate area and jersey coast as Euro showed a lot of mixing but I think its go be cold enough and if this system can generate extra cold we would really be in business.  I am fine with 6-12, honestly anything more would be fun at first but digging out and finding street parking for weeks is a nightmare here.

I'm fully expecting to go into Sunday with a Jersey Shorecast for a sloppy 1-3" and a whole bunch of rain. I'm still kinda convinced the track of the storm will be hugging the coast, so the cold won't really matter. But as of now, it looks like a very snowy solution is still a totally plausible outcome for us. I think I saw a few hours ago, we are between 30-40% likely to see 6" or more. That's a massively high percentage for these parts! And it still translates directly to a 60-70% chance of not getting that! lol

But, make no mistake, this is the best position 72 hours out that Ocean County has seen in 3 years. That could ALL change at 6 pm. lol But for now, we just keep tracking...

good point don't wanna get disappointed if this thing bombs out....btw 25 pound bag of rock salt at home depot $8.95

SENJsnowman wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Not 'consolidating' means lower qpf and/or snow rates i'm assuming, thus lowering the totals.

My experience at least half of all well formed coastal lows intensify more than forecast even in the short range. I pray that's our biggest issue with this storm lol

We shall see, but from a current stand point its looking good for most on the board, might be some concern for NYC immediate area and jersey coast as Euro showed a lot of mixing but I think its go be cold enough and if this system can generate extra cold we would really be in business.  I am fine with 6-12, honestly anything more would be fun at first but digging out and finding street parking for weeks is a nightmare here.

I'm fully expecting to go into Sunday with a Jersey Shorecast for a sloppy 1-3" and a whole bunch of rain. I'm still kinda convinced the track of the storm will be hugging the coast, so the cold won't really matter. But as of now, it looks like a very snowy solution is still a totally plausible outcome for us. I think I saw a few hours ago, we are between 30-40% likely to see 6" or more. That's a massively high percentage for these parts! And it still translates directly to a 60-70% chance of not getting that! lol

But, make no mistake, this is the best position 72 hours out that Ocean County has seen in 3 years. That could ALL change at 6 pm. lol But for now, we just keep tracking...

Good to keep expectations in check. Better to be pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed. The last runs verbatim looked good for your part of Ocean County. Mixing was more of an issue toward Barnegat and Stafford. But . . . still three days out. It's so hard to get heavy snow with no mixing right down to the shore that you're better to do exactly as you say: keep expectations in check and keep tracking! I'll be pulling for you.

Upton just updated. All in for my area on LI. No more mention of mixing, POPs up to likely

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24.

Monday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Blustery.

SENJsnowman wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Not 'consolidating' means lower qpf and/or snow rates i'm assuming, thus lowering the totals.

My experience at least half of all well formed coastal lows intensify more than forecast even in the short range. I pray that's our biggest issue with this storm lol

We shall see, but from a current stand point its looking good for most on the board, might be some concern for NYC immediate area and jersey coast as Euro showed a lot of mixing but I think its go be cold enough and if this system can generate extra cold we would really be in business.  I am fine with 6-12, honestly anything more would be fun at first but digging out and finding street parking for weeks is a nightmare here.

I'm fully expecting to go into Sunday with a Jersey Shorecast for a sloppy 1-3" and a whole bunch of rain. I'm still kinda convinced the track of the storm will be hugging the coast, so the cold won't really matter. But as of now, it looks like a very snowy solution is still a totally plausible outcome for us. I think I saw a few hours ago, we are between 30-40% likely to see 6" or more. That's a massively high percentage for these parts! And it still translates directly to a 60-70% chance of not getting that! lol

But, make no mistake, this is the best position 72 hours out that Ocean County has seen in 3 years. That could ALL change at 6 pm. lol But for now, we just keep tracking...

I haven't had 1' snow amounts since March 2018. Several 8-9" events since then so I'm paranoid. LOL

18Z nam came in way South.  If we miss the overrunning precipitation you can  can forget about snow until Monday afternoon.

The models are having a tough time with the block. They were to far  North with the initial precipitation with mondays syztem and today seem to be correcting with this system. I have a strong feeling that we will have to rely solely on the coastal fot our snow.  I always like our chances better with the initial waa snows

The euro has been insistant on this for days. It is a day slower with the onset of precip compared to other guidance

The ULL is literally blocked off. Heights do their best to ride ahead of it but they're quickly squashed, per the NAM

algae888 wrote:The euro has been insistant on this for days. It is a day slower with the onset of precip compared to other guidance

Slow is better

More time for northern stream phasing

I hope this thing gets delayed until Tuesday

I also do not like a stalled low  near Delaware Bay for prolonged hrs. Too much of an easterly fetct will change coastal plain to mix and rain. Hope for a primary into central Ohio and a trasfer east and slightly north of Atlantic city. Let it sit and mature there for a day

Latest ICON

18z RGEM

Frank_Wx wrote:The ULL is literally blocked off. Heights do their best to ride ahead of it but they're quickly squashed, per the NAM

So if this were to happen, it would be a cooler solution but with precipitation much further south with N&W not getting much?

Frank_Wx wrote:Latest ICON

That'd be ugly for a bunch of central and southern for sure.

18Z gfs looks like a swing and a miss

Irish wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Latest ICON

That'd be ugly for a bunch of central and southern for sure.

From what I can see, it's Morris and Passaic counties that seem to have lowest standard deviation from the mean jackpot zones.

aiannone wrote:18Z gfs looks like a swing and a miss

Yup. To far south. DC to balt. 12+".  6" from waa snow and the rest from the developing coastal east of Delaware

700 MB sits and rots here - good sign

The 18Z GFS is good at the mid levels. Maturing system slowly crawling to the benchmark. CCB stuff won't be known for sometime. We want to be NW of these mid level lows otherwise it'll be congrats Binghamton again.

We need this to come back north. Wherever the low initially forms it will sit and loop de loop until it occluds. We aare playing with fire to solely rely on the coastal

GEFS

algae888 wrote:We need this to come back north. Wherever the low initially forms it will sit and loop de loop until it occluds. We aare playing with fire to solely rely on the coastal

I guess it depends on what you believe to be the most potential. I'm thinking give the coastal time to form under out latitude and a slowly maturing coastal can probably do more for us than the WAA snow which will tend to wane usually more quickly than modeled anyway as the transfer occurs. If the coastal starts to mature off ACY that'll benefit NE much more than us. If starts its maturation process around Ocean City MD or even 50 miles south of there, then I think that could be very nice for us.

I don't buy the GFS QPF being so low with that run. Not for a minute...

heehaw453 wrote:The 18Z GFS is good at the mid levels.  Maturing system slowly crawling to the benchmark.  CCB stuff won't be known for sometime.  We want to be NW of these mid level lows otherwise it'll be congrats Binghamton again.

GFS looked wonky to me. Although the H5 levels looked improved from 12Z, there was a lack of a potent CCB even though the low was right on the BM. I’m not really concerned at this point; I’ve seen too many times where the GFS precip field is weak or disjointed on the NW side of the low.