February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
+23
SoulSingMG
hyde345
SNOW MAN
MattyICE
SENJsnowman
CDF24
mmanisca
weatherwatchermom
amugs
WeatherBob
TheAresian
crippo84
algae888
bobjohnsonforthehall
dsix85
rb924119
billg315
CPcantmeasuresnow
heehaw453
jmanley32
frank 638
Irish
Frank_Wx
27 posters
Page 7 of 10
Page 7 of 10 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
THIS IS WORTH $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 500hv.conus](https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021013018/048/500hv.conus.png)
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 500hv.conus](https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021013018/048/500hv.conus.png)
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Join date : 2013-01-07
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.
rb, if you are wrong (and I say IF because still 24 hours to go and you rarely are wrong) this will be one time for sure I'm glad you are. lol
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4511
Join date : 2015-01-24
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
rb as I have told my son..it's ok to be wrong....please be wrong in this case!rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.
![Very Happy](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_biggrin.png)
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3826
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
CPcantmeasuresnow and essexcountypete like this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
PRO Model View
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_2021-01-30-18Z_051_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.51d2cc3867b66fe5e9b0622f4d0ef22d](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_01/nam_2021-01-30-18Z_051_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.51d2cc3867b66fe5e9b0622f4d0ef22d.png)
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_2021-01-30-18Z_051_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.51d2cc3867b66fe5e9b0622f4d0ef22d](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_01/nam_2021-01-30-18Z_051_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.51d2cc3867b66fe5e9b0622f4d0ef22d.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
GET READY ITS ABOUT TO DROP THE THOR HAMMER !!!! WAIT FOR IT
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_2021-01-30-18Z_054_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.e2eaaa5f868615d325e8a33c55b3fc8f](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_01/nam_2021-01-30-18Z_054_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.e2eaaa5f868615d325e8a33c55b3fc8f.png)
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_2021-01-30-18Z_054_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.e2eaaa5f868615d325e8a33c55b3fc8f](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_01/nam_2021-01-30-18Z_054_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.e2eaaa5f868615d325e8a33c55b3fc8f.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
Interesting. 18z NAM has the heaviest snow more east based with lesser totals over central and eastern PA. This kind of makes sense with an deepening coastal that the heaviest precip would be east of PA, even with the initial over-running event.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4511
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).
I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.
I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.
I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.
I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
I had a snow map ready to go, but I may have to make some minor changes (minimal effect on the people on this forum) based on 18z NAM which has some merit (though maybe not zeroed in yet). May be a BIT too far east so not buying it completely.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4511
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
billg315 wrote:Interesting. 18z NAM has the heaviest snow more east based with lesser totals over central and eastern PA. This kind of makes sense with an deepening coastal that the heaviest precip would be east of PA, even with the initial over-running event.
I would tend to doubt that surface depiction based on the comma head signature and the fetch. But the exact timing and strength of those mid-level lows is everything. CCB banding forget trying to nail that down at this range. Not gonna happen. Tomorrow NAM will probably have that nailed much better.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).
I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.
I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.
That kind of surprises me too. Based on recent model runs you'd think enough confidence in Orange County being added to the WSW.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
I think Blizzard watches and warnings go up for the coasties at some point in the next 12-24 hours.
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 349
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : New York
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
4 AM
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021013018/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45.png)
7AM
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021013018/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46.png)
10 AM Tuesday Morning - STILL SNOWING!!
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021013018/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47.png)
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021013018/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45.png)
7AM
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021013018/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46.png)
10 AM Tuesday Morning - STILL SNOWING!!
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021013018/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47.png)
Last edited by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:41 pm; edited 2 times in total
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
dsix85 wrote:I think Blizzard watches and warnings go up for the coasties at some point in the next 12-24 hours.
I'd say after 6Z if not 12Z tomorrow
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
NAM has it snowing in the Metro Region for 38 -40 hours!!
9PM Sunday night to 11AM -12PM Tuesday morning
9PM Sunday night to 11AM -12PM Tuesday morning
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Image.png.c5642442fa7faf974fe901fa279771df](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_01/image.png.c5642442fa7faf974fe901fa279771df.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
Winter Storm Watch just posted for my area.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1361
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 64
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).
I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.
I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.
WSW just got issued in my area and NWS Albany is more conservative than any of the offices so you should be getting the same right about now.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
I've zeroed in on what I think is going to happen. Of course nobody will KNOW what is going to happen until tomorrow. My (rather amateur - but slightly better than the last one, Jman. lol) snow map is pretty much done.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4511
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
heehaw453 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
Waiting for our master to release his snow maps and maybe Roidzilla mode.
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 349
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : New York
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
Winter Storm Warning just posted for my area! It's coming smitches!!!
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).
I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.
I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.
Your guess was right. Here's a stress reliever for you.
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Screen23](https://i.servimg.com/u/f11/19/83/59/65/screen23.png)
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 725
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county
CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
BillG that 18z NAM just did EXACTLY what you indicated the Euro did at 12 z. Thump/Not so heavy or long rain/Decent long lasting snow showers. Snow finished in 5-7" as near as I can tell, might translate to 4-5" net.
For sure, a SE tick since 12z. Hopefully, by virtue of expansion and not shifting. This is getting quite interesting, in fact. Look at the hook South and East down the coast of Ocean County!
12z Nam
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam110](https://i.servimg.com/u/f77/20/29/09/99/nam110.jpg)
18z Nam
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_210](https://i.servimg.com/u/f77/20/29/09/99/nam_210.jpg)
I'm still prepared to bolt...but, I think I'm getting that loving feelin' again...
For sure, a SE tick since 12z. Hopefully, by virtue of expansion and not shifting. This is getting quite interesting, in fact. Look at the hook South and East down the coast of Ocean County!
12z Nam
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam110](https://i.servimg.com/u/f77/20/29/09/99/nam110.jpg)
18z Nam
![February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_210](https://i.servimg.com/u/f77/20/29/09/99/nam_210.jpg)
I'm still prepared to bolt...but, I think I'm getting that loving feelin' again...
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1189
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
RGEM a crusher for NW folks again?
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II
Irish wrote:RGEM a crusher for NW folks again?
Not really. I only get 8-9 from it. It crushes SE PA and northern Jersey.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Page 7 of 10 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Page 7 of 10
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|