February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

starting to see flurries. Moist system punching right through dew points in low teens.

heehaw453 wrote:starting to see flurries.  Moist system punching right through dew points in low teens.

not surprising the storm is coming in earlier it appears, might start snowing in NYC by early evening at this rate maybe sooner, irish said he is get flurries and birds eye he is like 50-60 miles from here.

10 am discussion from Upton..........

Its similar to the 7:00 am write up

000
FXUS61 KOKX 311505
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1005 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will begin to impact the Tri-State Region
tonight. The storm will continue into Monday night, with
lingering effects lasting into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is mostly on track. Updated hourly temperatures,
dewpoints and cloud cover based on the latest obs and trends.

A strong upr low can be seen on water vapor near the IL/IN
border this mrng. A solid arc of mid to high clouds were
overspreading the area ahead of the approaching sys. Thickening
clouds will therefore be the theme today, with perhaps some lgt
snow or flurries before dark across the swrn third of the cwa.
The NBM was followed with the typical adjustments for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The fcst continues to trend snowier for much of the fcst area.

The modeling still leaves a good amount of uncertainty wrt
mixing for the ern half to third of the area. The NAM and GFS,
including the 6Z NAM, are essentially the cold models. The GFS
warmed the bl significantly during the aftn across LI, which
seemed unrealistic given the wind direction except for close to
the immediate south shore and Twin Forks. It stayed cold aloft.
The 00Z NAM kept the bl cold, but surged enough warm air aloft
to produce some mixing with sleet for much of LI by aftn. The
6Z run backed off on this. Both models warm things aloft briefly
aft 00Z Tue, but by then most of the damage will have been done.
The ECMWF came in with a warm soln, which would result in
extensive mixing even potentially to NYC by aftn. Based on the
good agreement between the NAM and GFS, and the good track
record of the NAM, the fcst leans on the American models. It is
a lean however and not a full buy in at this point.

Snowfall amounts have been increased for almost the entire
area. Amounts were lowered on the South Fork however. Despite
the fact that we are forecasting up to 18 inches of snow, these
numbers are conservative if you trust the NAM. The NAM suggests
that 2 ft is reasonable for this event where the heaviest band
sets up and where it remains mostly snow. Even LI is not out of
the woods for getting these max amounts if the GFS/NAM are
indeed correct with the temp profiles.

Warnings have been issued for all but the Twin Forks, where the
watch has been maintained. This is due to the mixing/rain
potential.

High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak
will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem
likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions
can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the
coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is
not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas
most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI.

After the main snow band lifts north of the area Mon ngt, there
could be additional bands, albeit not as heavy, on the backside
of the sys right thru Tue. The upr low itself passes thru Tue
ngt, allowing for things to dry up by Wed mrng.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rising heights aloft are progged Wednesday into Wednesday night
as a ridge builds towards the region. The dry weather continues
on Friday. The next chance of precipitation comes late in the
week and into the weekend with the approach and passage of the
next frontal system. Temperatures should moderate on Wednesday
and trend above normal by the end of the week.

&&

Ok here is my Final Call Snow Map. If Frank opens a new Final Call thread I’ll move it later. The major changes are that the NAM finally came around to the other models with a more stout CCB that brought snow further west than yesterday. I put too much stock in that early run. Also I tried to better account for the initial WAA snows to our west at the outset. The H5 seems west to me as does the H7 and the NAM is hinting at more NW trend in mixing zone. I had to account for that in SNJ. I’ve seen mixing get further inland than projected and all those factors may hint as such. Finally I think the jackpot shifts a bit northwest from where shown yesterday. Model runs later today May shift but you have to plant your flag sometime. I’ll live with this map:
So here goes:
Green: Mostly Rain maybe 2-4” but turned to slush and washed away by rain;
Yellow: 4-8” with significant mixing of sleet and rain keeping totals down;
Blue/Purple: 8-14” Heavy Snow. Minor mixing in the southern band suppresses totals a bit and northern band just a bit too north for heaviest of snows.
Orange: 14-20” Heavy Snow.
Dark Orange: 20-30” Heavy, Heavy Snow? Lol.

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:starting to see flurries.  Moist system punching right through dew points in low teens.

not surprising the storm is coming in earlier it appears, might start snowing in NYC by early evening at this rate maybe sooner, irish said he is get flurries and birds eye he is like 50-60 miles from here.

My radar feed is picking up on Precp, in the area already most probably Virga

Joe Snow wrote:10 am discussion from Upton..........

Its similar to the 7:00 am write up

000
FXUS61 KOKX 311505
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1005 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will begin to impact the Tri-State Region
tonight. The storm will continue into Monday night, with
lingering effects lasting into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is mostly on track. Updated hourly temperatures,
dewpoints and cloud cover based on the latest obs and trends.

A strong upr low can be seen on water vapor near the IL/IN
border this mrng. A solid arc of mid to high clouds were
overspreading the area ahead of the approaching sys. Thickening
clouds will therefore be the theme today, with perhaps some lgt
snow or flurries before dark across the swrn third of the cwa.
The NBM was followed with the typical adjustments for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The fcst continues to trend snowier for much of the fcst area.

The modeling still leaves a good amount of uncertainty wrt
mixing for the ern half to third of the area. The NAM and GFS,
including the 6Z NAM, are essentially the cold models. The GFS
warmed the bl significantly during the aftn across LI, which
seemed unrealistic given the wind direction except for close to
the immediate south shore and Twin Forks. It stayed cold aloft.
The 00Z NAM kept the bl cold, but surged enough warm air aloft
to produce some mixing with sleet for much of LI by aftn. The
6Z run backed off on this. Both models warm things aloft briefly
aft 00Z Tue, but by then most of the damage will have been done.
The ECMWF came in with a warm soln, which would result in
extensive mixing even potentially to NYC by aftn. Based on the
good agreement between the NAM and GFS, and the good track
record of the NAM, the fcst leans on the American models. It is
a lean however and not a full buy in at this point.

Snowfall amounts have been increased for almost the entire
area. Amounts were lowered on the South Fork however. Despite
the fact that we are forecasting up to 18 inches of snow, these
numbers are conservative if you trust the NAM. The NAM suggests
that 2 ft is reasonable for this event where the heaviest band
sets up and where it remains mostly snow. Even LI is not out of
the woods for getting these max amounts if the GFS/NAM are
indeed correct with the temp profiles.

Warnings have been issued for all but the Twin Forks, where the
watch has been maintained. This is due to the mixing/rain
potential.

High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak
will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem
likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions
can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the
coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is
not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas
most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI.

After the main snow band lifts north of the area Mon ngt, there
could be additional bands, albeit not as heavy, on the backside
of the sys right thru Tue. The upr low itself passes thru Tue
ngt, allowing for things to dry up by Wed mrng.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rising heights aloft are progged Wednesday into Wednesday night
as a ridge builds towards the region. The dry weather continues
on Friday. The next chance of precipitation comes late in the
week and into the weekend with the approach and passage of the
next frontal system. Temperatures should moderate on Wednesday
and trend above normal by the end of the week.

&&

this is largely the same as earlier but the first bolded area is now. i want to see what they say once they factor in the 12z runs.

Goal posts have narrowed with this one. Don't expect anything dramatic at this point. Slight wobble here or there.

billg315 wrote:Ok here is my Final Call Snow Map. If Frank opens a new Final Call thread I’ll move it later. The major changes are that the NAM finally came around to the other models with a more stout CCB that brought snow further west than yesterday. I put too much stock in that early run. Also I tried to better account for the initial WAA snows to our west at the outset. The H5 seems west to me as does the H7 and the NAM is hinting at more NW trend in mixing zone. I had to account for that in SNJ. I’ve seen mixing get further inland than projected and all those factors may hint as such. Finally I think the jackpot shifts a bit northwest from where shown yesterday. Model runs later today May shift but you have to plant your flag sometime. I’ll live with this map:
So here goes:
Green: Mostly Rain maybe 2-4” but turned to slush and washed away by rain;
Yellow: 4-8” with significant mixing of sleet and rain keeping totals down;
Blue/Purple: 8-14” Heavy Snow. Minor mixing in the southern band suppresses totals a bit and northern band just a bit too north for heaviest of snows.
Orange: 14-20” Heavy Snow.
Dark Orange: 20-30” Heavy, Heavy Snow? Lol.

SOLID presentation of your ideas here.

billg315 wrote:Ok here is my Final Call Snow Map. If Frank opens a new Final Call thread I’ll move it later. The major changes are that the NAM finally came around to the other models with a more stout CCB that brought snow further west than yesterday. I put too much stock in that early run. Also I tried to better account for the initial WAA snows to our west at the outset. The H5 seems west to me as does the H7 and the NAM is hinting at more NW trend in mixing zone. I had to account for that in SNJ. I’ve seen mixing get further inland than projected and all those factors may hint as such. Finally I think the jackpot shifts a bit northwest from where shown yesterday. Model runs later today May shift but you have to plant your flag sometime. I’ll live with this map:
So here goes:
Green: Mostly Rain maybe 2-4” but turned to slush and washed away by rain;
Yellow: 4-8” with significant mixing of sleet and rain keeping totals down;
Blue/Purple: 8-14” Heavy Snow. Minor mixing in the southern band suppresses totals a bit and northern band just a bit too north for heaviest of snows.
Orange: 14-20” Heavy Snow.
Dark Orange: 20-30” Heavy, Heavy Snow? Lol.

just need that dark orange 20 miles SW thanks lol, i think it looks spot on but i still hope to see 20+ but ill take the 18 they are saying for the area for sure.

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

I truthfully am not expecting much for us. Couple sloppy inches *maybe* before we change. But I’m focused on larger-scale factors, so I’m not the best person to ask about hard numbers.

Holy cow GFS is still light snow at 6pm tues!! This go be a crush job even down to atlantic city sees over a foot HA!. GFS literally added 5 inches to NYC area due to banding lasting into late tues night!

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

Not that you asked me, but i'll offer. lol. If traveling is not an issue for you, and you want to see really good snow, head north. Toward Morris, Sussex, Warren counties. I think you're going to get too much mixing down there to get the "full" experience.

billg315 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

Not that you asked me, but i'll offer. lol. If traveling is not an issue for you, and you want to see really good snow, head north. Toward Morris, Sussex, Warren counties. I think you're going to get too much mixing down there to get the "full" experience.

GFS says hold my beer to that!! look above snow map.

jmanley32 wrote:Holy cow GFS is still light snow at 6pm tues!! This go be a crush job. GFS literally added 5 inches to NYC area due to banding lasting into late tues night!

That's just nuts, I can see the Pro mets breaking it down 5" Sunday night 10" Monday and 10" Tuesday, instead of saying 25" LOL

GFS snows for NYC and north from hr 15-63, if thats true thats the longest i think ive seen it snow.

jmanley32 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

Not that you asked me, but i'll offer. lol. If traveling is not an issue for you, and you want to see really good snow, head north. Toward Morris, Sussex, Warren counties. I think you're going to get too much mixing down there to get the "full" experience.

GFS says hold my beer to that!! look above snow map.

Yeah, but that's a big roll of the dice. In that part of the state sometimes that rain/snow line moves further inland than projected. I mean, they're going to get snow, but were SENJSnowman is he'll be on knife's edge for mixing. So if he doesn't mind traveling he can take that "risk" out of the equation. Or he can stay and maybe everything will turn out just right. lol

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Holy cow GFS is still light snow at 6pm tues!! This go be a crush job. GFS literally added 5 inches to NYC area due to banding lasting into late tues night!

That's just nuts, I can see the Pro mets breaking it down 5" Sunday night 10" Monday and 10" Tuesday, instead of saying 25" LOL  

we are clearly not done with model consensus as this just added all of southern jersey to the crush job. I wonder if NAM trends this way or if GFS reverts back, why did this happen on GFS? Was it more east likee Al had mentioned was possible? I did not pay attention to the placement versus the 06z.

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

Very hard call for your area. If it really tucks then 3-6". It will depend on when the ULL captures the mid levels. If it captures it a bit east then you'll probably looking over 6" easily. Remember the air is colder this time and that works in your favor even at the coast. But if you want to get better odds, then leave Dodge. LOL

How is it possible that models can't even start with the same data? I was trying to compare how the 12z runs of the GFS and NAM evolved over time when I realized they start differently. By hr 12, the GFS low is close to twice the size of the NAM's. How is it possible to have that much of a discrepancy? Is it data collection or processing or some other issue?

Snow falling in Hamilton, Mercer county, NJ

billg315 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

Not that you asked me, but i'll offer. lol. If traveling is not an issue for you, and you want to see really good snow, head north. Toward Morris, Sussex, Warren counties. I think you're going to get too much mixing down there to get the "full" experience.

GFS says hold my beer to that!! look above snow map.

Yeah, but that's a big roll of the dice. In that part of the state sometimes that rain/snow line moves further inland than projected. I mean, they're going to get snow, but were SENJSnowman is he'll be on knife's edge for mixing. So if he doesn't mind traveling he can take that "risk" out of the equation. Or he can stay and maybe everything will turn out just right. lol

Ok got the books Who needs milk..besides I have a milkman..lol..in the drive up at Starbucks see a couple of tiny flakes are my eyes deceiving me???Currently 24*

heehaw, What are your thoughts on the Stroudsburg area which is part of the Pocono's ? I live a little North of there in Marshall's Creek. I have to tell you that you do a fantastic job on this board. Thanks for all of your hard work. It's really appreciated !

TheAresian wrote:How is it possible that models can't even start with the same data? I was trying to compare how the 12z runs of the GFS and NAM evolved over time when I realized they start differently. By hr 12, the GFS low is close to twice the size of the NAM's. How is it possible to have that much of a discrepancy? Is it data collection or processing or some other issue?

This is why you just look at things aloft, and not surface presentations haha

SENJsnowman wrote:rb, how do you feel about now thru midnight from in our back yard? Do you see 5-6" accumulating? And radar shows snow right now throughout much of the state. Is this virga which is saturating the dry air?

I don't have to make a decision for another hour or even 2. Nothing beats a good daytime storm. Stay for here for a decent 2/3 day hit or drive, spend and cramp in the hotel for a MOAB full day hit?

my sister is up by lake hopatgong area they always get more snow...my father is in Caldwell they always do well...I would go north son. To those hills. ..lol get those kids that snow.

Even at 500 mb they're different. I assumed that the models would all have roughly the same data collection times/areas and the differences would be in computer bias and how things are weighted.

Well, buhbye NW NJ EPA on the GEM. GET THE YARDSTICKS.