2021 Tropical Season

amugs wrote:Soaker

might we salvage the weekend if this time stamp stays?

Elsa going to be a hurricane at FL landfall. By looks of the track parts of our area may see ts advisories if she stays where they have the center. It hasn't wavered much but 150 miles in either direction error..

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys we are on vacation on our boat for 3 weeks..in CT...do you think Elsa could effect us..we will be in Rhode Island the end of the week??

Hey Weathermom.  There is def a chance for both direct and/or indirect effects from Elsa as we head into the end of the week and weekend.  There is a trough sweeping in as Elsa head up towards the Carolina's, so timing and positioning will determine the details.  Even if Elsa stays south and us as it heads OTS the cold frontal boundary will likely bring us gusty unsettled weather.   Stay tuned.

Hey Weathermom. It’s def looking more and more likely that traveling on Friday is not the best move. Whether we see tropical storm force watches or warnings or not will be irrelevant. It’s going to blow. Where ever you end up stay safe and make sure those spring lines are the right length.

The cone shifted west even further has 2 to 4 rain winds yet to be seen if a issue I wouldn't be surprised to see TS watches up today or tomorrow. Hang in there weathermom it looks like go b quick pass on Friday morning and a decent weekend.

TS watches issued up to just south of Staten Island. Now the nhc has center directly over NYC on Friday morning. I presume watches will eventually go up all way to Cape Cod. Shouldn't be too bad unless she regains more than is predicted. 2 to 4 inches or rain and gusts to 40mph we can handle. Sorry to those on boats though.

Euro is a little stronger and more tucked into the coast. Would bring heavy rain and gusty winds to most of the area. GFS seems to keep the heavy rains just offshore maybe clipping Ocean and Monmouth counties and eastern Long Island. Either way doesn't look too bad for the area, but certainly could be some typical coastal flooding from the onshore flow. Should be cleared out by Friday afternoon/evening which is good.

NAM is closer to the Euro solution with more rain onshore.

I am on Wildwood till Saturday.
Been following updates and The Bermuda Ridge is gonna press here and interact with the front. Not a good set up. I am Hu Keri g down on the 4th floor of our oceanside hotel.
Will take videos to share.
Maps for those interested. She gonna whack us really good peeps = prepare for whatever u need to do.
Wind Gusts likely I say.

amugs wrote:I am on Wildwood till Saturday.
Been following updates and The Bermuda Ridge is gonna press here and interact with the front. Not a good set up. I am Hu Keri g down on the 4th floor of our oceanside hotel.
Will take videos to share.
Maps for those interested. She gonna whack us really good peeps = prepare for whatever u need to do.
Wind Gusts likely I say.

don't we usually think these are overdone? 50 to 60 mph imby no good. What is the duration approx? Is she going to expand? Right now tiny. 80 to 90mph on LI? I guess that's the combo? Is this kind of like the setup we had with isiais last summer? When do you think nhc pulls the watches warnings for area?

billg315 wrote:Euro is a little stronger and more tucked into the coast. Would bring heavy rain and gusty winds to most of the area. GFS seems to keep the heavy rains just offshore maybe clipping Ocean and Monmouth counties and eastern Long Island. Either way doesn't look too bad for the area, but certainly could be some typical coastal flooding from the onshore flow. Should be cleared out by Friday afternoon/evening which is good.

I dont think 12z GFS has much of a clue as it initialized Elsa at 1008mb.  As of the latest recon it has been hovering between 1000-1002mb overnight and this am.  Euro has been much better at initalization making me think its soln is more likely.  GFS has it come off the NJ coast as a 1009 mb Low vs the euro has it in the low 990's.  A HUGE difference.  If euro is correct wind impacts will be more significant area wide, but esp for eastern half of LI and eastward; esp if we get 2"+ of rain.  

Looking at 500 the interaction with the mean trough has it try and tilt neutral to slt neg which will allow for that strengthening as it undergoes the tropical to subtropical transition.

Well see.  So far the euro soln is way more plausible IMHO

Compliments of 33& Rain

Coast gets raked

amugs wrote:Coast gets raked

wow 989 just off NYC that's a potential hurricane no? What causes that rapid intensification?

amugs wrote:

mugs one of those is 00z other 12z. What are you showing here?

Surprised tgat NYC and southern Westchester didn't get a TS watch maybe the majority of issues is on right flank? I still think more the area goes up and ts warnings tomorrow at least for the areas under watches now. Gotta see if she makes it across land and as we know track can change.

Showing that it slowed down a bit.

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Surprised tgat NYC and southern Westchester didn't get a TS watch maybe the majority of issues is on right flank? I still think more the area goes up and ts warnings tomorrow at least for the areas under watches now. Gotta see if she makes it across land and as we know track can change.

ur right about that all of Long Island is under a tropical storm watch .I guess by tomorrow we all have a warning

nope guess they decided to keep the warning to the east of NYC. Though the heaviest rain is supposed to be north and west of NYC. Any change in track of course will change things. If she's slowed down that's not good longer duration and potential to regain if gets over water

weatherwatchermom wrote:

amugs wrote:Showing that it slowed down a bit.

What does that mean?

In reality probably nothing major except for subtle changes in timing. Looks like winds begin to pick up after about 8pm tonight and into the overnight.  Rain from Elsa looks like it begins to move in around Midnight from SW to NE with the heaviest rains coming through early Friday.    

As the euro has been stating for some time, although has backed off as to how much, Elsa looks to intensify a little as she heads NE. As you can see the NWS has issued Trop Storm warnings along the coast as a result.  



Intensification will have nothing to do with any extra time over water, but rather its interactions with the trough that is capturing it and is ultimately what is steering her NE up and out by Friday afternoon.  





Recall many a discussion during winter time when we talk about the trough axis tilting negative leading to a bombing winter system.  When the trough axis tilts negative this adds energy into a system strengthening it.  Elsa is no longer a truly tropical system anymore.  As she continues her journey NE she goes from a warm core system, being driven by the warm waters beneath her while over open waters, into a cold core system as she is picked up by and interacts with the trough.   This transition will shift the axis of heaviest rainfall from the E/NE quadrants to the N/NW quadrant of the center.

In the end This likely wont have major impacts area wide, but certainly with tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rain there will certainly be some downed trees/tree limbs, isolated power outages, minor coastal flooding on the east side of the center, and potential for flooding where the heaviest rainfall amts occur.  

Its been a relatively boring spring so far so this was fun to track.   Stay safe everyone.  Hope all is well.  

Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?

weatherwatchermom wrote:Those winds better not verify...,

the warning doesn't have gusts anywhere close to that. They may be being cautious but we are 24 hrs or less away so if those winds were to verify without notice that would not be good. I'm hoping to see more than a soaking rain but nothing damaging don't need lose power but all the wind is to east of center so I think that puts NYC just barely to the West but I still thing TS warnings could go up there purely for the rain. We will see. If nothing else as Scott said tracking has been fun.

jmanley32 wrote:Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?

NHCs classification has changed since Sandy. There was the big debate over whether she was a hurricane or not. If you recall NHC at some point tried to declassify her as such because of her interactions with the trough that reaped her in. Now they go more by winds. People are stupid apparently so if you tell them tropical storm they react; whereas, if you say no longer a tropical storm, even though tropical storm force winds are present, people don’t react.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?

NHCs classification has changed since Sandy. There was the big debate over whether she was a hurricane or not. If you recall NHC at some point tried to declassify her as such because of her interactions with the trough that reaped her in. Now they go more by winds. People are stupid apparently so if you tell them tropical storm they react; whereas, if you say no longer a tropical storm, even though tropical storm force winds are present, people don’t react.

Actually upon closer inspection she does stay warm core. Until she gets past us. That said the reason for strengthening still applies. Negative tilt to the trough.