2021 Tropical Season

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?

NHCs classification has changed since Sandy. There was the big debate over whether she was a hurricane or not. If you recall NHC at some point tried to declassify her as such because of her interactions with the trough that reaped her in. Now they go more by winds. People are stupid apparently so if you tell them tropical storm they react; whereas, if you say no longer a tropical storm, even though tropical storm force winds are present, people don’t react.

Actually upon closer inspection she does stay warm core. Until she gets past us. That said the reason for strengthening still applies. Negative tilt to the trough.

Good morning. The Weather Channel says tropical storm conditions are possible here in NYC overnight yet there is no tropical storm watch/warning for NYC. Why is that?

New Yorker 234 wrote:Good morning. The Weather Channel says tropical storm conditions are possible here in NYC overnight yet there is no tropical storm watch/warning for NYC. Why is that?

Honestly its likely a matter of semantics, meaning there is a very specific criteria that needs to be met to be placed in a warning.  I believe its sustained trop force winds expected within 24 or 36hrs I believe.  I dont recall how long of a duration defines sustained.  Sustained being the operative word regarding warning criteria though.  That said areas immediately west of the warning areas, like NYC/Westchester etc, can absolutely still get Trop storm force winds at times, esp under heavy bands.

Seems to me like this is more of a flood threat for western LI into NW NJ and SNY. Wind threat seems low. One thing we will have to watch out for is a favorable environment for quick tornado spin ups.

aiannone wrote:Seems to me like this is more of a flood threat for western LI into NW NJ and SNY. Wind threat seems low. One thing we will have to watch out for is a favorable environment for quick tornado spin ups.

yeah last night there was no chance for tornadoes. Now they are saying it's possible. She's still so far south I don't see how she gets here as soon as predicted.

Never seen that much rain come down for that long

Like midnight here. Saw report of a.5 inch hail in Bergen?! Anyone got in that? Go be a wild night.

The strongest winds from Elsa are most likely to occur late tonight and Friday morning over Long Island and coastal sections of New Jersey and Connecticut, where the Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. Sustained winds could be between 40-50mph with gusts up to near 60mph for at least a few hours, as Elsa’s center passes nearby. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Around New York City, winds are likely to be between 20-30mph with some gusts to up to near 40mph possible.




2-4" of Rain

From Mike Mostwill and 33 & RAIN

amugs wrote:The strongest winds from Elsa are most likely to occur late tonight and Friday morning over Long Island and coastal sections of New Jersey and Connecticut, where the Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. Sustained winds could be between 40-50mph with gusts up to near 60mph for at least a few hours, as Elsa’s center passes nearby. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Around New York City, winds are likely to be between 20-30mph with some gusts to up to near 40mph possible.




2-4" of Rain

From Mike Mostwill and 33 & RAIN

umm if some of those spots of rain verify 7 to 10 plus....yikes. She intensified to 50mph as of 5. I could see her being a 60mph may be 70mph TS potentially.

YIKES!!

Here's the latest IMME ensemble mean VP200a fcst for Aug-Oct (ASO) vs last month.

This month's new VP200a forecast has more -VP200a focused in the E Indian Ocean instead of Africa. This kind of pattern is actually more consistent w/ "hyperactive" Atlantic hurricane seasons
pic.twitter.com/59m2gW3n2V

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 13, 2021

If true YIKKESSSS!!

ECMWF velocity potential anomalies

Like last year, forcing is favored over Africa and the Indian Ocean during peak hurricane season, a pattern consistent with an active tropical Atlantic and the hand print of a redeveloping La Niña.

A long-lived season also appears possible. pic.twitter.com/cw0FuQZ10h

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 14, 2021

Tropics look very quiet for the next few days. Still forecast to get somewhat active later in August and September, but nothing brewing right now.

MJO phase 2 and 3 will kick in and this will take off. Quiet before the storms.

MJO phase. 2/3 convection south of India linked to hurricane season going wild in Altantic. We saw it much of last hurricane season, About to go in there now for August. Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/UPsdekGXcu

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 1, 2021

We've got some color.

I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.

Potent* cold front, not potential lol can’t edit for some reason.

rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.

Am I reading correctly that you are concerned for a tropical threat up this way in 8-10 day period? That would have to be the next one in the atlantic or something we have not seen off the coast develop yet.

rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.

Yes sir.  Like the great JB always says....Ridge over troubled waters.  This looks really interesting.  The EC def needs to monitor this as we head into next week.  Jon its the area east of the Lesser Antilles around 50W that Im looking at.  

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.

Am I reading correctly that you are concerned for a tropical threat up this way in 8-10 day period?  That would have to be the next one in the atlantic or something we have not seen off the coast develop yet.

Yes, Jman. But before I jump on any bandwagon I want to sit and really take a look for a couple reasons: 1) I’ve not forecasted since about the end of February for that massive nor’easter (which I’m still sour over missing :p) and 2) these things are agonizingly fickle, and with how bad I know the modeling has been with storms in other parts of the world all year, it just adds to the complications.

I’ll probably take a look tomorrow night or Sunday before work and provide some further details, but it looks like the modeling has shifted toward more a true tropical entity being the threat instead of a transitioning entity further north, at least for now.

The biggest thing to focus on IMO is the evolution of the eastern Canadian ridging within the context of the surrounding mid-latitude pattern evolution (i.e. do we see the body of that ridge try to bleed southward (instead of eastward) over the western Atlantic, thereby preventing my idea entirely and forcing anything tropical further southwest? Or, is the southward bleeding unsuccessful, which would leave both options on the table? Forget operational models, even when we are within a few days; trust me, they’ve been AWFUL this year with tropics. Ensembles only, look at the drivers (overall pattern), and the storms will follow.

Rb this pattern as JB has been harping on is what Eric Webb is stating as well. This pattern has given teh EC and NE some humdinger storms in its time.

The latest IMME 500mb fcst for the peak of this Atlantic hurricane season is downright ugly.

Patterns like this w/ ridging over SE Canada & troughs lurking near the Gulf coast are usually assoc. w/ hurricane landfalls on the US coast.

Note: stippling = "significant" anomalies pic.twitter.com/Tt1LgL97Jv

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) August 13, 2021

So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better, let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?

dkodgis wrote:So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better,  let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?

Possibly, who knows only TD 7 does. Do not stop it at just a rain potential do not forget how destructive Isiahs was last summer. Not saying anything is going to happen but the conditions are right for a potential real tropical system to come up the coast. Will be interesting to watch to see if our pros and JB may be onto something.