Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:ray next question is i believe he is supposed to take a strong halt b4 landfall, if this happens soon he would be able to get even further west. oh and BTW you are smart, you kidding me?

This goes back to my question of how efficient is the turn to west? If it’s super efficient, then all latitude gain stops entirely and it goes due west. If it’s not efficient at all, then it continues toward Long Island and likely heads inland. Right now, on a spectrum of:

Not efficient-very inefficient- somewhat inefficient-efficient-somewhat efficient-very efficient-super efficient

I’d say we are around “very efficient”. If we get that west turn, then it goes to “super efficient” lol

And thanks! But I’m always learning lol

you see snows post? does the hurricane follow its own cells? If so it is going due west.....

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:It is pretty stormy here too ray, worst just to south of me, hearing lots of big thunder. wow just got flood advisory 1-2 has fallen and 1-2 more, if henri puts down what some models show we could easily see near a goot of rain by monday jesus! Add any wind and trees wil leasily uproot with the saturation, no good.

Yeah I’ve been watching the radar and have seen you guys getting pounded up there. Stay safe man!

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:47 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:It is pretty stormy here too ray, worst just to south of me, hearing lots of big thunder. wow just got flood advisory 1-2 has fallen and 1-2 more, if henri puts down what some models show we could easily see near a goot of rain by monday jesus! Add any wind and trees wil leasily uproot with the saturation, no good.

Yeah I’ve been watching the radar and have seen you guys getting pounded up there. Stay safe man!

I live ina 2nd floor apartment building of brick ill be fine, not near water, my only concern is power outages, oh shit, if our bridge floods as it often does my car go be screwed shoot i cont think i can move it anywhere at this hour. plus dont want put it under trees.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:49 pm

Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:50 pm

Hurricane - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 29 C07f54fb-06f7-46ce-9d64-18f32b12c0d5.gif.78200d194c42ca4724aa5f5f550846f7

ICON is destructive scenario for NNJ, NYC Metro for massive flooding and to moderate tropical relentless winds

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.

ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:50 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:WOW.

You could say that again……

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:51 pm

amugs wrote:

ICON is destructive scenario for NNJ, NYC Metro for massive flooding and to moderate tropical relentless winds

we get the west and east side on that run like ray said a little bit of everything, yeah thats about as bad as it could get.

by **Joe Snow** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:52 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.

It’s very true.

Using RadarScope app with Alison House Feed on my iPhone 12.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.
ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.

As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:54 pm

Nuts!! Not even shown on ANY MODEL!!

Breaking: Significant flooding in Brooklyn, New York, as Hurricane Henri affects the area. pic.twitter.com/4OD1A8OYeu
— PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) August 22, 2021

by tomsriversnowstorm Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:55 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.
ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.

As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol

If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:55 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.

It’s very true.

Using RadarScope app with Alison House Feed on my iPhone 12.

Please post these periodically if you can so we can cross-check satellite loops with the calculated storm motions and see if our eyes are deceiving us. At least if you can; if you’re going to sleep then don’t drive yourself batty over it lol Jman and I can do that much haha

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:56 pm

amugs wrote:Nuts!! Not even shown on ANY MODEL!!

Breaking: Significant flooding in Brooklyn, New York, as Hurricane Henri affects the area. pic.twitter.com/4OD1A8OYeu
— PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) August 22, 2021

Jesusssss

by **Joe Snow** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:57 pm

Hurricane - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 29 A1000c10

Outer bands are heading due west.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:00 am

Joe Snow wrote:

Outer bands are heading due west.

imagine it stays that far south and west and doesnt effect CT RI or even nyc that much, i doubt that if anything this would be really bad for our entire CWA, i doubt it is due west.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:02 am

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.
ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.

As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol

If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?

Oh yes. Apply the hurricane warnings currently posted for Long Island to everywhere north of Tom’s River as an approximate idea. But lets see what happens for a while yet. The idea of a further west track is definitely gaining momentum now, but how far west versus north is still tricky - one wobble changes everything.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:04 am

Joe Snow wrote:

Outer bands are heading due west.

This looks valid for the main circulation the last frame of satellite imagery right now too….

Thank you!!

by tomsriversnowstorm Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:05 am

Well thankfully I am in Toms River so that is still north of me. Hopefully it goes east instead of west. Thanks by the way for tracking this.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:07 am

rb924119 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.
ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.

As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol

If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?

Oh yes. Apply the hurricane warnings currently posted for Long Island to everywhere north of Tom’s River as an approximate idea. But lets see what happens for a while yet. The idea of a further west track is definitely gaining momentum now, but how far west versus north is still tricky - one wobble changes everything.

rb are those really outer bands or more part of the the system trying to pull henri in? and look at the radar this will be very telling once henri gets into it but looking at what is there it doesnt appear to be going north a lot but could be our swollen eyes lol

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:10 am

any other places suggesting its taking a sharper west turn? or are we the only crazy ones out there?

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:11 am

NWS just increased the winds by 5mph on my TSW, albeit small its a adjustment because at 11pm it went down from earlier today.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:12 am

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Well thankfully I am in Toms River so that is still north of me. Hopefully it goes east instead of west. Thanks by the way for tracking this.

I gathered Wink

And I think it’s safe to say that from a damage perspective, we all agree 100%. Let it sputter and die out.

No problem! This is what we all live for! Thanks for being a part of it!

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:13 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

WHAT. Joe, don’t fool like this; is that photoshopped? Lmaoooo

This would be wild, and if true, would be one of the biggest busts in recent history for both the models and NHC.
ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.

As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol

If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?

Oh yes. Apply the hurricane warnings currently posted for Long Island to everywhere north of Tom’s River as an approximate idea. But lets see what happens for a while yet. The idea of a further west track is definitely gaining momentum now, but how far west versus north is still tricky - one wobble changes everything.
rb are those really outer bands or more part of the the system trying to pull henri in? and look at the radar this will be very telling once henri gets into it but looking at what is there it doesnt appear to be going north a lot but could be our swollen eyes lol

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif

I think it’s a combination of both, honestly. And thanks for the link!

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:14 am

jmanley32 wrote:any other places suggesting its taking a sharper west turn? or are we the only crazy ones out there?

Well mugsy posted something earlier from another forum that I no longer go to regarding start of the turn at the same time I did, so I think there are others lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:15 am

ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW

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