2021 Tropical Season
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
you see snows post? does the hurricane follow its own cells? If so it is going due west.....rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:ray next question is i believe he is supposed to take a strong halt b4 landfall, if this happens soon he would be able to get even further west. oh and BTW you are smart, you kidding me?
This goes back to my question of how efficient is the turn to west? If it’s super efficient, then all latitude gain stops entirely and it goes due west. If it’s not efficient at all, then it continues toward Long Island and likely heads inland. Right now, on a spectrum of:
Not efficient-very inefficient- somewhat inefficient-efficient-somewhat efficient-very efficient-super efficient
I’d say we are around “very efficient”. If we get that west turn, then it goes to “super efficient” lol
And thanks! But I’m always learning lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
jmanley32 wrote:It is pretty stormy here too ray, worst just to south of me, hearing lots of big thunder. wow just got flood advisory 1-2 has fallen and 1-2 more, if henri puts down what some models show we could easily see near a goot of rain by monday jesus! Add any wind and trees wil leasily uproot with the saturation, no good.
Yeah I’ve been watching the radar and have seen you guys getting pounded up there. Stay safe man!
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
I live ina 2nd floor apartment building of brick ill be fine, not near water, my only concern is power outages, oh shit, if our bridge floods as it often does my car go be screwed shoot i cont think i can move it anywhere at this hour. plus dont want put it under trees.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:It is pretty stormy here too ray, worst just to south of me, hearing lots of big thunder. wow just got flood advisory 1-2 has fallen and 1-2 more, if henri puts down what some models show we could easily see near a goot of rain by monday jesus! Add any wind and trees wil leasily uproot with the saturation, no good.
Yeah I’ve been watching the radar and have seen you guys getting pounded up there. Stay safe man!
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
ICON is destructive scenario for NNJ, NYC Metro for massive flooding and to moderate tropical relentless winds
_________________
MugsÂ
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
we get the west and east side on that run like ray said a little bit of everything, yeah thats about as bad as it could get.amugs wrote:
ICON is destructive scenario for NNJ, NYC Metro for massive flooding and to moderate tropical relentless winds
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
It’s very true.
Using RadarScope app with Alison House Feed on my iPhone 12.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
jmanley32 wrote:ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.
As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Nuts!! Not even shown on ANY MODEL!!
Breaking: Significant flooding in Brooklyn, New York, as Hurricane Henri affects the area. pic.twitter.com/4OD1A8OYeu
— PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) August 22, 2021
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.
As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol
If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Joe Snow wrote:
It’s very true. Â
Using RadarScope app with Alison House Feed on my iPhone 12.
Please post these periodically if you can so we can cross-check satellite loops with the calculated storm motions and see if our eyes are deceiving us. At least if you can; if you’re going to sleep then don’t drive yourself batty over it lol Jman and I can do that much haha
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
amugs wrote:Nuts!! Not even shown on ANY MODEL!!Breaking: Significant flooding in Brooklyn, New York, as Hurricane Henri affects the area. pic.twitter.com/4OD1A8OYeu
— PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) August 22, 2021
Jesusssss
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.
As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol
If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?
Oh yes. Apply the hurricane warnings currently posted for Long Island to everywhere north of Tom’s River as an approximate idea. But lets see what happens for a while yet. The idea of a further west track is definitely gaining momentum now, but how far west versus north is still tricky - one wobble changes everything.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Well thankfully I am in Toms River so that is still north of me. Hopefully it goes east instead of west. Thanks by the way for tracking this.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
rb are those really outer bands or more part of the the system trying to pull henri in? and look at the radar this will be very telling once henri gets into it but looking at what is there it doesnt appear to be going north a lot but could be our swollen eyes lolrb924119 wrote:tomsriversnowstorm wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.
As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol
If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?
Oh yes. Apply the hurricane warnings currently posted for Long Island to everywhere north of Tom’s River as an approximate idea. But lets see what happens for a while yet. The idea of a further west track is definitely gaining momentum now, but how far west versus north is still tricky - one wobble changes everything.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
any other places suggesting its taking a sharper west turn? or are we the only crazy ones out there?
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
NWS just increased the winds by 5mph on my TSW, albeit small its a adjustment because at 11pm it went down from earlier today.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Well thankfully I am in Toms River so that is still north of me. Hopefully it goes east instead of west. Thanks by the way for tracking this.
I gathered
And I think it’s safe to say that from a damage perspective, we all agree 100%. Let it sputter and die out.
No problem! This is what we all live for! Thanks for being a part of it!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
jmanley32 wrote:rb are those really outer bands or more part of the the system trying to pull henri in? and look at the radar this will be very telling once henri gets into it but looking at what is there it doesnt appear to be going north a lot but could be our swollen eyes lolrb924119 wrote:tomsriversnowstorm wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:ray look at the infrared, still organizing and yes it really looks more west than anything else, this could be valid.
As objectively as I can say it, you’re right lol
If it is moving west like that does jersey have an issue then?
Oh yes. Apply the hurricane warnings currently posted for Long Island to everywhere north of Tom’s River as an approximate idea. But lets see what happens for a while yet. The idea of a further west track is definitely gaining momentum now, but how far west versus north is still tricky - one wobble changes everything.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif
I think it’s a combination of both, honestly. And thanks for the link!
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
jmanley32 wrote:any other places suggesting its taking a sharper west turn? or are we the only crazy ones out there?
Well mugsy posted something earlier from another forum that I no longer go to regarding start of the turn at the same time I did, so I think there are others lol
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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW
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