Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:51 pm

amugs wrote:.thro

MJO goes ugh phase 6 which will help disrupt the PV and the Ural/Scandinavian Ridge will also help. But the moderate MJO wave and OLR show that the EAMT affects the SPV and will eventually help shuffle the pattern to a favorable winter pattern down the road. We just have to endure the Heat Miser for a week ish. Then we may flip and flip hard.

This sounds oddly familiar :p

by **amugs** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:51 pm

Jb not backing down

MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20 pic.twitter.com/kuBaSxsRoe
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) December 9, 2021

Close up of Maps

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 FGLBlfgWYAMLUP0?format=png&name=360x360

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 FGLBoQtWUAMoZYA?format=png&name=medium

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:57 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks for the video Ray! I’ll reserve time during lunch today to watch it.

I glanced at the GFS this morning and could not help but notice how aggressive it went with the Scandy-sourced -NAO. It ended up leading to bombogenesis/Godzilla along the coast near Christmas. GFS might be too fast here with the evolution of the -NAO, but it is very fun to see the long range look like this:

-NAO forms on the 18th:

-STJ short wave can’t cut north as a result of the block, leading to mahem and phase at the coast

-End result:

I usually don’t like to hype things much. But in this case, I don’t think something like the images above is left to being a question of “if”. I think this year it’s more likely to be “when? And how many?” As I stated earlier on, I strongly believe this is going to turn out to be just like ‘17-‘18, but we are starting that evolution about six full weeks earlier, when we can truly take advantage of it at the climatological peak of Winter.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:RB an excellent video demonstrating a passion and skill in meteorology! Also, your insight into the later start to winter has been spot on. We had some good blocking in latter November, but it was transient and we have been in a shut out pattern since.

IMO what your describing in the video is a winter a la 95/96 pattern but starting in mid January as opposed to late November. That's pretty much the golden standard of a winter.

These convective waves are damn fickle to predict, and hence my skepticism, but I can't fault your logic and reasoning based on your scientific arguments. Well done sir!

Thanks, heehaw!! Hopefully the skill comes through with this hahaha and I just want to make it clear that you brought up ‘95-‘96, and not me :p that said, and this takes me back to my response to Frank, I am very optimistic for our chances of at the very least having multiple opportunities for big events. We saw what happened in 2018 from the end of February through mid-April, and I think we are dealing with a similar situation here, but at peak climatology for winter weather. As I said, I don’t like to hype things, but I am having a hard time not being excited for this, becauseI think the potential ceiling for this Winter is VERY high.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:14 pm

amugs wrote:Rb - Bravo Kid - your explanation was perfect of how the pattern are driven by these dynamic yet simplistic forces. It is amazing to learn from a pro like you. When I came to the Channel 7 wx board in 2010 I was an ignorant amateur with a passion and have learned SO MUCH over the years, listening to pros, reading, studying, watching videos, attending seminars and being on wx boards. I am still learning and that is the beauty of this passion and thanks for taking teh time to teach us the "what to the why" and the "why to the what" - a saying I use in engineering with my classes when problem solving (isn't everything nowadays a problem?

Exciting times ahead for sure and I love the prognostication of what this could turn out to be from late December through March.

If yuo are paying attention not to just IMBY goggles as so many have that the rest of the world is getting hammered so far - like South America and Down Under did in their winter .

With this I know we all want to rush the pattern but there are good indications after this AN warm spell we start to shuffle and change teh pattern like DOC and CP did the twist back in the day LOL!! CP will need an awakening in about 12-14 days I would suppose.

I would take this and run if it comes true - remember there a lag so if it's Dec 22 then that usually means 3 -4 days later from experience affects start to occur. Unless we get that Ural Scan Ridge to retrograde to Greenie land and block this up. Possible of course.

This would be interesting if it came to fruition - Westwardish based Negative EPO, Neg NAO and a trough setting up

Thanks, mugsy!! But I’m no pro haha just a fellow enthusiast with an extra piece of paper Smile

I was a lurker back on that old ABC forum for a while before I started posting, and much like you, learned and am still learning a lot through the process. Now, I just try to pay it forward when I can…..and also try to provide accurate information along with it haha

But I’m with you, man. I try to stay as level headed as possible when it comes to putting forecasts out, but this has me anxious. I am not liking what I'm seeing, I am LOVING it. I don’t want to hype it, but I firmly believe that this could turn out to be a big ticket winter if the ideas that I presented come to fruition.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:24 pm

To all of you, I just want to thank you for your kind words. The praise is great, but to have your respect and trust is most important, and I really hope that the ideas presented come to pass, because the last thing I want to do is let you all down.

That said…………it’s safe to say the GFS agrees Wink

what you’re looking at here is the Stratospheric vortex at 10mb; basically the top of it. Note the two lobes of anomalies with one over Eurasia and the other, deeper one sinking it’s way to Hudson Bay (or even south of it!). It’s a long range operational run, but I like. Scratch that, LOVE the presentation. This is pretty much a full split if you know how to interpret anomalies, and at 10mb, that means that the ENTIRE vortex would be split. That’s HUGE. We have to see how this evolves, but this is strongly supported in my opinion. TRUST THE PROCESS.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 63814210

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:31 pm

Darn it, my animation isn’t working again lol

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 00554b10

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:54 pm

by **amugs** Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:08 pm

Rb I'll see your double post and raise u with AM's !?

A usual culprit of RMM mischief is tropical cyclones (and higher frequency wave interactions which go hand-in-hand). The 30-240 hr 12z GFS today shows the expected development ahead within SPCZ and ER TC response (to MJO) that moves west through Indo. pic.twitter.com/lgby3LYMPV
— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) December 8, 2021

You can see the feature (ER) nicely already on today's IR imagery just east of 150°E line (nice symmetry with Equator. Each circulation ~ 10°N/S): pic.twitter.com/0qPKgFqkoT
— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) December 9, 2021

by **Irish** Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:25 pm

I know there's so much that can happen but when rb gets excited it's time to pay veeeeery close attention and get ready to enjoy the winter that is to come!

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:34 am

Irish wrote:I know there's so much that can happen but when rb gets excited it's time to pay veeeeery close attention and get ready to enjoy the winter that is to come!

Excited? Meeeeee???? There’s not much to be excited abou……….

50mb height anomalies Day 10:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 23fd1910

10mb height anomalis Day 10:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 24454810

50mb height anomalies Day 15:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 795daf10

10mb height anomalies Day 15:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 51546010

I’m going to stop short of using the “M” word, as I’ll reserve that for our fearless forum leaders to use at their discretion. But folks, even though this is a GFS Operational run at long range (meaning tread lightly and take with caution), this shows that the large-scale ideas presented heretofore have merit (exact details to be determined), AND this signal is steadily gaining momentum. This is the most bullish run so far, in a stretch of runs that has been getting more and more impressive as we AND the events in question move up in time. And in this particular run, the warming over Eurasia is reloading at Day 15. I cannot tell you how FIRED UP I am right now!!!

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:18 pm

Thanks for the great video Rb, just got a chance to watch it. As much as I'm looking forward to seeing an active pattern Jan-March, I'm going away end of February for 3 weeks and don't want to miss out! (Will anyone be around to help my kids shovel?)

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:32 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks for the great video Rb, just got a chance to watch it. As much as I'm looking forward to seeing an active pattern Jan-March, I'm going away end of February for 3 weeks and don't want to miss out! (Will anyone be around to help my kids shovel?)

I still havent had a chance to watch the video. This weekend that will change. But man its been getting so much hype from everyone; incuding its producer. Wink

And Janet, arent your kids in their 20's or 30's????

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2F3o7TKTDn976rzVgky4%2Fgiphy

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2F3o7TKTDn976rzVgky4%2Fgiphy

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks for the great video Rb, just got a chance to watch it. As much as I'm looking forward to seeing an active pattern Jan-March, I'm going away end of February for 3 weeks and don't want to miss out! (Will anyone be around to help my kids shovel?)

I still havent had a chance to watch the video. This weekend that will change. But man its been getting so much hype from everyone; incuding its producer.

And Janet, arent your kids in their 20's or 30's????

haha yes, 2 are still home, one moved out. But I have 100' of sidewalk, a 75' front walk, and a 100' driveway. If we get more than a few inches it's a bear. I may need to break down and get a snow blower!

by **amugs** Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:20 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks for the great video Rb, just got a chance to watch it. As much as I'm looking forward to seeing an active pattern Jan-March, I'm going away end of February for 3 weeks and don't want to miss out! (Will anyone be around to help my kids shovel?)

I still havent had a chance to watch the video. This weekend that will change. But man its been getting so much hype from everyone; incuding its producer.

And Janet, arent your kids in their 20's or 30's????

haha yes, 2 are still home, one moved out. But I have 100' of sidewalk, a 75' front walk, and a 100' driveway. If we get more than a few inches it's a bear. I may need to break down and get a snow blower!

I have an old spare one that my wife will help me with if it gets bad - MTD 24" 1998 - if worse comes to worse they can use if it gets bad down road of me - they just need to pick it up.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:08 pm

Rb here you go - the AO connection to the EPO region and the Retrograding Scandinavian (Scan)/Urals Block into Greenie land. Holding steady as we move up in time and it has moved up about 2 days so far - lets see if this is true come Tuesday and its still holding with this idea

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 786239568_GEFS12-10.gif.a57695080e7c44789cd4162213c44e4a

by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:23 pm

This is a step in the right direction. Also as noted ^^^ the ridge bridge can really help with a nice arctic press. A lot of modelling hinting at nice changes in next 10 days.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Ao18

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Nao15

by **amugs** Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:47 pm

Eddy Heat Flux showing up in LR in 10 days on the chart warming the Strat. Decent warming as per the map with the brownish/orange colors.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Image.png.977c7c782b6f0f436363e02bfd8d6f67

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Image.png.977c7c782b6f0f436363e02bfd8d6f67

by **amugs** Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:49 pm

Euro and its Ens now showing what GFS showed 2 days ago for Pre Xmas fun. I know LR but we shall see.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:45 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks for the great video Rb, just got a chance to watch it. As much as I'm looking forward to seeing an active pattern Jan-March, I'm going away end of February for 3 weeks and don't want to miss out! (Will anyone be around to help my kids shovel?)

I wish I could have some input on what Mother Nature does, but unfortunately, I don’t Sad

I’m just a messenger of what her potential plans may be lol

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks for the great video Rb, just got a chance to watch it. As much as I'm looking forward to seeing an active pattern Jan-March, I'm going away end of February for 3 weeks and don't want to miss out! (Will anyone be around to help my kids shovel?)

I still havent had a chance to watch the video. This weekend that will change. But man its been getting so much hype from everyone; incuding its producer.

And Janet, arent your kids in their 20's or 30's????

Make sure you have plenty of popcorn Wink

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:56 pm

amugs wrote:Rb here you go - the AO connection to the EPO region and the Retrograding Scandinavian (Scan)/Urals Block into Greenie land. Holding steady as we move up in time and it has moved up about 2 days so far - lets see if this is true come Tuesday and its still holding with this idea

The problem here, though, mugsy, is we are still fighting the -PNA/southeast ridge couplets because of the lagged atmospheric response to the MJO/La Niña forcing. And that’s why I’ve been adamant that this upcoming period of blocking probably won’t result in much for us in terms of extend cold/snow prospects. Not saying it 100% won’t, but don’t personally think it will. That said, this is another chip to fall in our favor, as things are proceeding according to plan, and if we do manage to squeak something out of it, then it’s a bonus, in my opinion.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:03 pm

amugs wrote:Eddy Heat Flux showing up in LR in 10 days on the chart warming the Strat. Decent warming as per the map with the brownish/orange colors.

THIS. 100% THIS. THIS is what we want to see. For those who don’t understand what this is showing, is it’s a time (x-axis) altitude (y-axis) plot depicting atmospheric height/temperature anomalies in the color shading (warm is positive, blue-green is negative). Notice how at the end, it’s showing the positive anomalies extending from the higher altitude (lower pressure) down toward the lower altitude (higher pressure). This is the same as the maps I posted this morning, indicating a true Stratospheric warming event. Note however, that there are still some negative anomalies at the very lowest altitudes/highest pressures, meaning that it isn’t yet projected to influence our sensible weather pattern…….YET. HOWEVER, this aligns perfectly with the ideas and timeline presented so far.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:37 pm

These “mega” ridges found on opposite sides of the globe (wave-2) are surely to poke around and transport warming to lower levels of the Stratosphere aka “bottom up” warming.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Gfs_mslpa_nhem_65

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Gfs_mslpa_nhem_65

Of course take with a grain of salt. Key is monitoring the MJO and what happens in the northern Atlantic in the next 2-3 weeks.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:58 am

Above normal temps are expected through the next 10 days - however - there’s a small window of opportunity appearing on the models next Sunday into Monday. A pseudo-ridge over the PNA area thanks to digging piece of upper energy off the west coast, may sneak a piece of polar energy into our area and possibly giving us our first accumulating snowfall event of the season. I placed the SCI at 5% as we wait and see what transpires next week.

by **docstox12** Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:31 am

OK, good Frank.It will be something to tide us through this mild stretch and get us closer to the hopefully better set of conditions later this month.

by **amugs** Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:41 am

MJO still showing the goodness of winter phase 8

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 10 ECMF_phase_51m_full

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