Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Snow88 wrote:Holy PNA in the long range
There also might be a threat of a big storm mid month but that's too far out to talk about it..
That’s the one mugsy and I have been barking at for almost a week now (though the foundation was laid a long time before that). Now that the models are finally seeing the proper pattern evolution, they will start (and have already started) to pick up on the actual storm threat itself.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Massive Cold in this pattern ......if it comes to fruition.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Frank_Wx wrote:The -EPO/+PNA is bound to deliver. The timeframe you guys are speaking of (13th-16th) looks great. For most of this month there appears to be ample opportunity. I don’t think the pattern supports Roodzilla or anything extreme but a moderate to Godzilla certainly on the table.
There’s the Frank we all know and love! Haha
Also, the pattern being portrayed by the GEFS, and even the GEPS in the extended range is a brutally cold pattern. The EPS, per usual with this whole thing, seems to be behind the 8 ball right now. That said, I think the GEFS are the most accurate with where this pattern is likely to go, though I think even it too may be trying to play with too much retrogression at the end of its run. I like the mean ridge axis to set up shop right on or JUST west of the coast of North America and then extend into Alaska (and even beyond, depending on how nicely the WPO wants to play lol). IF this turns out to be correct, then getting to what Frank said, we are going to have a HECK OF A LOT of tracking to do, as we would have access to both the northern AND southern streams to be ejecting disturbances into the mean trough, and I like our chances. Either way, this is where my ideas will make or break my forecast, so to say that I’ll be on pins and needles for the next two weeks or so is an understatement haha
WE TRACK!!!
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Youuuuuu rannnnggggggggggggggg???? Lol
It’s the Holy Pentad. Verbatim, the above graphic and your EURO image would be a major snow storm, no doubt about it. That is a powder keg with a lit fuse. You want better news? MJO plots. OLR plots indicating broad subsidence over the Maritime Continent and ascent getting toward the Dateline. Extended ranges of the three global ensembles (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) showing signs of trying to reverse their retrogression of the pattern and maintain the time-mean ridge axis just offshore of the West Coast. And, the Strat is still looking decent through the end of the extended Ensembles.
As I stated in my previous post, the ideas that were presented are looking VERY good, but this next two-week stretch (or so) is what is going to make or break those ideas. So, while I’m incredibly excited, optimistic, and confident, since the ideas have gotten us to this point, I am also INCREDIBLY nervous haha because I don’t want to trip up five feet from the finish line and let you all down.
WE TRACK!!
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
rb924119 wrote:
Youuuuuu rannnnggggggggggggggg???? Lol
It’s the Holy Pentad. Verbatim, the above graphic and your EURO image would be a major snow storm, no doubt about it. That is a powder keg with a lit fuse. You want better news? MJO plots. OLR plots indicating broad subsidence over the Maritime Continent and ascent getting toward the Dateline. Extended ranges of the three global ensembles (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) showing signs of trying to reverse their retrogression of the pattern and maintain the time-mean ridge axis just offshore of the West Coast. And, the Strat is still looking decent through the end of the extended Ensembles.
As I stated in my previous post, the ideas that were presented are looking VERY good, but this next two-week stretch (or so) is what is going to make or break those ideas. So, while I’m incredibly excited, optimistic, and confident, since the ideas have gotten us to this point, I am also INCREDIBLY nervous haha because I don’t want to trip up five feet from the finish line and let you all down.
WE TRACK!!
rb,
You have absolutely nothing to be nervous about. I, for one, greatly appreciate the time, effort and videos (which I mostly don't understand) that you put together. If your predictions come to fruition... AWESOME! If they don't, they've created great conversation and daily interest. I know that I can't be the only one who wakes up in the morning eager to read an update!
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Welcome back, emo!! It’s not necessarily Pacific moisture that we are looking for, rather systems (energy) coming from the Pacific underneath the western North American ridge. As they move across the southern tier of the U.S. they can begin drawing Gulf moisture northward, as you correctly stated, but with the ridge over western North America, can also have energy from the northern stream come down the eastern side of that ridge and interact with the southern energy. In my opinion, this type of evolution is VERY likely as it looks right now, and with the projected pattern, any system that develops like that would be a slow mover thanks to the pseudo-blocking in the Atlantic domain. So, a slow moving storm with access to Gulf and then Atlantic moisture and cold air is a recipe for excitement. We just have to be patient, but this is why mugs and I have been so enthusiastic for Week 2 or 3 of January for a long time, and more specifically, the 13th-16th. The pattern has a very high ceiling, and I mean VERY HIGH. But, it has to be realized.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Edit: forgot to mention the blizzard it brings lol I’m not one for hype, or at least try not to be, and usually I laugh at stuff like this, but this time around, I truly believe that this is at the very least POSSIBLE if things line up how I expect. This run fits the overall progression I believe will occur. This is just the extreme end of the possibility spectrum.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Umm our call is moving up in time my man!!
Docstox... energy stocks my man play Nat Gas and you'll be happy. Did so in Oct before Wyrope went into the freezer.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
WeatherBob wrote:Have not said anything this winter so far but following up on Rb’s comments late in the G F S run. It looks like a blizzard of 1888 set up, quasi stationary front off the coast with upper energy diving into it. Low moves into central or eastern LI as it heads up the front. Very intriguing at this point!
Welcome back, Bob!! I must admit that I’m not too familiar with 1888, but I’ll trust your judgement haha that said, the February blizzard of 2010 was the same evolution. I know that much because I did a case study on it in college haha either way, to see those types of analogs appearing on a model run that fits long-standing ideas is encouraging to say the least lol
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
chief7 wrote:I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home
Me three
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
I'm tellinf you all NYC will have a crippling snowstorm this winter.
And the MJO wave stuck in pahse 7 is fine for January. If it gets moving into 8 for February even better and will align with Rb call quite nicely.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Frank_Wx wrote:chief7 wrote:I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home
Me three
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