Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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nutleyblizzard
aiannone
brownie
billg315
sroc4
jmanley32
Dunnzoo
frank 638
Frank_Wx
weatherwatchermom
SENJsnowman
amugs
16 posters
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
What model is that? That would crush the area being that close in. And the loop on prolongs it.amugs wrote:As we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous October 2011 nor'easter
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 25, 2021, we've got our first nor'easter of fall/winter 2021/22 to track!
There's a shortage of cold air this time, but no shortage of tropical moisture (🟠) — this one will be about soaking rain, not snow... pic.twitter.com/MBsoYqIYuD
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
This is a sick loop!!!
Mike Mosstwill on Twitter n 33nRain Wx Board![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_fh20-48.gif.6313607a7afc1ae9bd5b23370a289d0f](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_fh20-48.gif.6313607a7afc1ae9bd5b23370a289d0f.gif)
Mike Mosstwill on Twitter n 33nRain Wx Board
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_fh20-48.gif.6313607a7afc1ae9bd5b23370a289d0f](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_fh20-48.gif.6313607a7afc1ae9bd5b23370a289d0f.gif)
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
YOWZA!!
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjEtTTX0AUpo_b?format=png&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjEtTTX0AUpo_b?format=png&name=medium)
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
amugs wrote:YOWZA!!
![Brick](/users/3017/35/58/46/smiles/2417739071.gif)
![Tired Mad](/users/3017/35/58/46/smiles/3952986808.gif)
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
NAM!!
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjbJ3rWYAMF82b?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjbJ3rWYAMF82b?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
ENSEMBLE of SR models
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Qpf_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(4).png.738d8bf4ace863711c0d4090da7c56c3](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/qpf_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(4).png.738d8bf4ace863711c0d4090da7c56c3.png)
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Qpf_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(4).png.738d8bf4ace863711c0d4090da7c56c3](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/qpf_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(4).png.738d8bf4ace863711c0d4090da7c56c3.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
From Logan Miles - excellent work on this storm
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjqHkSXsAgPCOl?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjqHkSXsAgPCOl?format=jpg&name=medium)
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjqa0PXoAYVuuu?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjqa0PXoAYVuuu?format=jpg&name=medium)
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjqbkNXEAQNsXE?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjqbkNXEAQNsXE?format=jpg&name=medium)
Backside Winds in Apps
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCi4zHSWQAUyiMs?format=png&name=small](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCi4zHSWQAUyiMs?format=png&name=small)
I VEHEMENTLY AGREE!!!
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjrCitXsAgXS3p?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjrCitXsAgXS3p?format=jpg&name=medium)
RAIN
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjr9TWWYAQQOXK?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjr9TWWYAQQOXK?format=jpg&name=medium)
Maybe under done like winds
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjr99qXEAQosqi?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjr99qXEAQosqi?format=jpg&name=medium)
Backside Winds in Apps
I VEHEMENTLY AGREE!!!
RAIN
Maybe under done like winds
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
EURO 12Z 33nRain WxBoard compliments
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 49429102_qpf_acc.us_ne(1).png.d97e4740604fa5912fcc059606448c98](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/49429102_qpf_acc.us_ne(1).png.d97e4740604fa5912fcc059606448c98.png)
A bit further East
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 2066852348_prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne(2).png.32f6e6f1aaade934a96c274760cfe1c8](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/2066852348_prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne(2).png.32f6e6f1aaade934a96c274760cfe1c8.png)
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 49429102_qpf_acc.us_ne(1).png.d97e4740604fa5912fcc059606448c98](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/49429102_qpf_acc.us_ne(1).png.d97e4740604fa5912fcc059606448c98.png)
A bit further East
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 2066852348_prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne(2).png.32f6e6f1aaade934a96c274760cfe1c8](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_10/2066852348_prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne(2).png.32f6e6f1aaade934a96c274760cfe1c8.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Pink where gusts can reach hurricane force. Pumpkin colored 60 MPH
From JB
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
12Z HRRR YIKES - Power outages abundant if it verifies or comes even 10-20% less for the duration it will be bad.
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjUHqtWYAwydiZ?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCjUHqtWYAwydiZ?format=jpg&name=large)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
12z Euro is ugly. A damaging nor’easter looking likely. pic.twitter.com/wRBVNUrZuw
— eweather (@Eweather13) October 25, 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
why is the storm track looping around like that?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Do you think nhc area and southern Westchester will see hww criteria? Looks like LI would be worst but still shows like 60moh gusts at least along Jersey Shore across NYC area through CT. Why are they not putting any advisories or warnings out? Even these areas could see hurricane gusts per jbaiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
lglickman1 wrote:why is the storm track looping around like that?
There is a strong block (red in Eastern Canada), that is preventing it from escaping quickly. The surface low meanders until the next upper level system, blue to the west over Texas, kicks everything out.
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_9](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021102512/gfs_z500a_namer_9.png)
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
This storm doesn't warrant storm mode? I know it isn't a snowstorm but it still looks to be impactful.
The fact that all The SR models are showing similar winds and rain with slight differences in placement tells me imo that the gfs was way off yesterday. frank. I may be wrong but all signals pointing to a lot worse than 2 inches rain. And I dunno whatsgoing on with the forecasters and the wind threat . only pulled trigger on cape. I guess there is a given and imo 60 mph there is low.
The fact that all The SR models are showing similar winds and rain with slight differences in placement tells me imo that the gfs was way off yesterday. frank. I may be wrong but all signals pointing to a lot worse than 2 inches rain. And I dunno whatsgoing on with the forecasters and the wind threat . only pulled trigger on cape. I guess there is a given and imo 60 mph there is low.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets
Problem is, how often do we see models spitting out crazy wind numbers, only to have them not verify? It seems like every time we see models showing us 60, 70, 80 kt winds, our max gusts hit the mid 50s.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
This is valid. They may also be waiting on seeing exact placement. I think 00z tonight or 06z Upton will put something up. Or maybe not.essexcountypete wrote:aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets
Problem is, how often do we see models spitting out crazy wind numbers, only to have them not verify? It seems like every time we see models showing us 60, 70, 80 kt winds, our max gusts hit the mid 50s.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
I feel flatfooted here. Yesterday, I thought last night's rain was it. I had no idea some such poopy was going to hit the fan. I need to pay attention (more).
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Lol some such poopy...we are such grown ups here aren't we lmao.dkodgis wrote:I feel flatfooted here. Yesterday, I thought last night's rain was it. I had no idea some such poopy was going to hit the fan. I need to pay attention (more).
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
The media are focusing on “a month’s worth of rain in a day” - 4-5” for me.
I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.
I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.
brownie- Posts : 397
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
HH GFS
Get out the ARK!!
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_8](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021102518/gfs_apcpn_neus_8.png)
Get out the ARK!!
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_8](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021102518/gfs_apcpn_neus_8.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Why do I have a feeling this is go end up like ida. Except maybe not as severe flash floods cuz it's longer duration but this time we add in potentially very high winds . after assisting my clients and my supervisor who lost everything I don't wish that flooding on snyone.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
brownie wrote:The media are focusing on “a month’s worth of rain in a day” - 4-5” for me.
I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.
Right there with you. Storms are a lot less fun when you're worrying about your safety.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE
![Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCk-bBJXIAACcqR?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCk-bBJXIAACcqR?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
I read somewhere we are waiting for the low to pop off the coast of carolinas then we will have a good idea of how far west this storm will get.amugs wrote:Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE
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