November 2021 Obs & Discussions
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SENJsnowman
GreyBeard
jmanley32
essexcountypete
1190ftalt
Frank_Wx
frank 638
algae888
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
heehaw453
Dunnzoo
billg315
docstox12
aiannone
sroc4
amugs
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
algae888 wrote:Not sure what everyone else is seeing but 12 of the next 14 days look to be below normal starting with yesterday for CPK. That is the longest stretch of below normal temps in many months. Last night and today's guidance have shifted to a more colder pattern due to the pollward aleutian ridge which is now a little further East than previously modeled. Classic nina December. also the polar vortex is on our side of the globe If you believe the EPS and GEPS. Several clippers are going to pass through starting Sunday and continuing into next week any one of them could produce our first snow of the season here. I don't believe the MJO is driving the pattern right now It's basically been in the circle of death And the next wave looks to be weaker according to latest guidance Obviously things can change but I am somewhat encouraged today
It may be below average, but it’s a pattern that doesn’t really support any meaningful snow. I’m not ruling out a weak wave or a clipper that could drop an inch or two, but any sizable storm is going to cut and surge us back into the 50s or even near 60 for the foreseeable future, IMO.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
algae888 wrote:
This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
And in fact, assuming the above corrections take place, ypubmay watch your 12-day stretch of weakly below average become muted into six or seven days with less of a departure.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:algae888 wrote:
This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.
Hey rb. Hope all is well. I have to respectively disagree. That's a gradient pattern running right thru the country With plenty of cold air in Canada. I do agree that we will not see big storms in this pattern as the Gulf of Mexico will be shut off but overrunning/SWFE events and clippers that redevelop Are more likely and those could be fun. Even a hint of an East based NAO block
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
algae888 wrote:rb924119 wrote:algae888 wrote:
This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.
Hey rb. Hope all is well. I have to respectively disagree. That's a gradient pattern running right thru the country With plenty of cold air in Canada. I do agree that we will not see big storms in this pattern as the Gulf of Mexico will be shut off but overrunning/SWFE events and clippers that redevelop Are more likely and those could be fun. Even a hint of an East based NAO block
Al I posted a response to this map in the LR thread. Its possible that we get some rogue s/w or clipper type system that moves in on the heals of the cold frontal passage bringing some wintry chances, but it would have to be perfect. In the other thread I explain my reasoning as to why I think what you see in this map is not likely to verify.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Aye Caramba cold peeps!! Wind Chills bundle up .
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Image.png.4b310974f1b626fe7a112e2429b9fb37](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_11/image.png.4b310974f1b626fe7a112e2429b9fb37.png)
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Image.png.4b310974f1b626fe7a112e2429b9fb37](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_11/image.png.4b310974f1b626fe7a112e2429b9fb37.png)
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Ummm 00z gfs has 6 to 12 for the 29th and then another and by Dec 7th has 12 to 18 total snowfall...where did that come from. I'm gonna be in trouble if we get a big snowstorm on the 29th I gotta be traveling back to NY for work on Tues. If it happens can it be on Tuesday plz lol. From reading here though sounds like pattern is unlikely for a storm to happen in the next 5 days.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
And of course our cheapo landlord doesn't have any heat going. I hope despite the rise in oil in gas they don't freeze their tenants out to save a buck.amugs wrote:Aye Caramba cold peeps!! Wind Chills bundle up .
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Brrrrrr it’s cold 🥶 outside 31 *
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
models for Sunday are just close enough to make me go...
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbarkpost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2Fpugtilt](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbarkpost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2Fpugtilt.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
But just far enough away to say give it another day. or two.
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbarkpost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2Fpugtilt](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbarkpost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2Fpugtilt.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
But just far enough away to say give it another day. or two.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Yup. I'm seeing trans Siberian Orchestra at mohegan Sun sunday. Luckily their stage set up I'd so elaborate it takes days and 15 big rigs to bring it and set up so I know they will already be there. Snow.would fit perfectly with their show if any of you know who they are and I highly suggest making it a point to see them at least once in your life.sroc4 wrote:models for Sunday are just close enough to make me go...
But just far enough away to say give it another day. or two.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
WHOO HOO...WE BROKE 30....29.4 this morning!!
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
For Sunday threat there is Atlantic blocking that could give this some upside for some folks. I think this is a C-2" type of threat for this area. To me the ULL is just a bit too far north for our immediate area as it's not giving enough time for consolidation of the short wave energy. NE could get a good shot of snow with this setup. But again the blocking may surprise for areas further south.
My causes to pause
1. Climatology this time of year
2. The surface temperatures along coastal areas are marginal
3. The ULL is kind of far north as modeled
My causes to pause
1. Climatology this time of year
2. The surface temperatures along coastal areas are marginal
3. The ULL is kind of far north as modeled
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
heehaw453 wrote:For Sunday threat there is Atlantic blocking that could give this some upside for some folks. I think this is a C-2" type of threat for this area. To me the ULL is just a bit too far north for our immediate area as it's not giving enough time for consolidation of the short wave energy. NE could get a good shot of snow with this setup. But again the blocking may surprise for areas further south.
My causes to pause
1. Climatology this time of year
2. The surface temperatures along coastal areas are marginal
3. The ULL is kind of far north as modeled
Clipper needs to dive to VA Capes and transfer here for us to get a 'snowstorm" per say BUT the front coming through IF we can get some lift (jet streak at 250/200) and frontogenesis going it could be a a 2" type of snow for sure but the C-2" scenario is good for now.
These are good for SNE - CT from say Fairfield North.
Models struggling mightily with the Tropical Activity and EAMT, shortening for the wavelengths etc causing it to flip flop extremely.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Honestly I am good with holding off for a good storm until after the holiday weekend, now everyone knows I love a big storm but it would just be very difficult travel, i hope for this one i am in a snow hole in CT lol (bet you never thought you would hear that). C-2 probably minimal travel issues on 95 if any at all with as mugs stated coastal warmth. Doesn't a early snow often translate to a sucky winter?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
I wouldn’t consider this as an “early” snow event since meteorological winter starts on Dec 1st. Only October snowfalls tend to jinx our winters.jmanley32 wrote:Honestly I am good with holding off for a good storm until after the holiday weekend, now everyone knows I love a big storm but it would just be very difficult travel, i hope for this one i am in a snow hole in CT lol (bet you never thought you would hear that). C-2 probably minimal travel issues on 95 if any at all with as mugs stated coastal warmth. Doesn't a early snow often translate to a sucky winter?
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Quick update. GFS for the past 3 runs has trended unfavorable at 500, but take a peek at the 12z UKIE...shes a beaut
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Euro jet streak gives you a what?? Snow in the air??
Last edited by amugs on Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mugs
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
The upper level energy associated with the Sunday storm is impressively strong, and responding/amplifying ahead of a western ridge, but the northern energy is struggling with a full on phase with the southern energy.
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_15](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021112506/gfs_z500_vort_neus_15.png)
The northern vort is so strong that we’re seeing a surface low “pop” north and west of our area, which of course means milder air invading the boundary levels of the atmosphere along the coast. This wouldn’t even deliver much for those N&W if true.
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021112506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png)
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_15](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021112506/gfs_z500_vort_neus_15.png)
The northern vort is so strong that we’re seeing a surface low “pop” north and west of our area, which of course means milder air invading the boundary levels of the atmosphere along the coast. This wouldn’t even deliver much for those N&W if true.
![November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021112506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png)
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
1st flakes of the season for many here Sunday night it seems. Let see what the EURO has to say.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
For Sunday I think any snow will be well NW of I95. If there is enough instability then I could see a coating in places. ULL is way too far north and the models are pretty locked and loaded on that now. First week of December probably more legit threat window with deeper cold air and a little deeper into the snow season.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
heehaw453 wrote:For Sunday I think any snow will be well NW of I95. If there is enough instability then I could see a coating in places. ULL is way too far north and the models are pretty locked and loaded on that now. First week of December probably more legit threat window with deeper cold air and a little deeper into the snow season.
NAM and CMC show just enough uncertainty in just how deep the trough digs to pause another 24hrs before discounting closer to the coast
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Had some flurries here around 4PM
. 2nd of this young season
. 2nd of this young season
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Flurried here, too. Temp=32 degrees. Winds are the story. Sustained gusts=32 mph. Steady winds around 22 mph. Wind coming off the Shawangunk mountains down to lower elevations are shaking my windows
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