January 2022 Obs & Discussions

Sroc that Eagles game was actually Dec 7, 2013 very early in our winter season.  My back yard (Lakehurst at the time) snowed hard from about noon until about 6 pm. I was a snow weenie back then, but not following along at all, so i had zero idea that this storm was even out there until Lily (3 at the time) yelled “It’s Snowing!” This storm and that Eagles-Lions game as crippo pointed out, live on in lore around these parts.

Returning to this storm, of course, I am very happy to see that the surface map trends were backed up by more substantive changes! Keep on tracking! Keep on reeling Mugsy!!!

NW HO WE GO!! nice lean on the SLP on EURO.

SENJsnowman wrote:Sroc that Eagles game was actually Dec 7, 2013 very early in our winter season.  My back yard (Lakehurst at the time) snowed hard from about noon until about 6 pm. I was a snow weenie back then, but not following along at all, so i had zero idea that this storm was even out there until Lily (3 at the time) yelled “It’s Snowing!” This storm and that Eagles-Lions game as crippo pointed out, live on in lore around these parts.

Returning to this storm, of course, I am very happy to see that the surface map trends were backed up by more substantive changes! Keep on tracking! Keep on reeling Mugsy!!!

That's crazy that it was 8 years ago!!  Seems like yesterday.  BTW..................

SREF just came north by quite a bit. Usually the NAM follows suit whatever that model shows. I guess we’ll find out shortly.

Jump jump everybody now!!

amugs wrote:Jump jump everybody now!!

It’s happening!!!

The confluence as per SROC jet streak maps on the previous page show this lifting N and relaxing as well. If we get more of both and hold back the SW energy in the south a few hours then they NS energy can dive in and phase.
Just a possibility that would allow a more N trend and stronger storm.
Keep an eye on it. If not we settle for what is what then. NNJ sharp cutoff

I can tell you already NAM will be caving N

SRoc- we might be getting the goods in Manorville/Wading River

NAM definitely looking more GFS like. There's time to get something out of this as long as we see the trends continue. Remarkable if it holds.

heehaw453 wrote:NAM definitely looking more GFS like.  There's time to get something out of this as long as we see the trends continue.  Remarkable if it holds.

Def a huge shift N on the Nam. Next up rgem

BIG Shift at 500mb. Nice trend overall.
Look at the change in the trough and confluence over Maine = weaker and more N.

Mid-Atlantic NWS offices must be concerned. They have forecasts out for no snow right now in many of the CWAs and some of these models are spitting out double digit snowfall. Unreal.

Is this a quick hitter? In and out in 6-8 hours ?

dsix85 wrote:SRoc- we might be getting the goods in Manorville/Wading River

We shall see. I’m not quite ready to sound the alarm but I’m starting to get a tingling sensation down my arms. I thinks it’s a snow tingling and not the precursor to a heart attack. Lol

LOL!  Look at the expansion of the precip field. C'mon man, really.

Dsix. 6-8hrs seems reasonable. Maybe 8-12 hours worth at most IF it pans out.

heehaw453 wrote:LOL!  Look at the expansion of the precip field.  C'mon man, really.

That’s all jet streak enhanced vertical motion. Lp still pretty far south

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:LOL!  Look at the expansion of the precip field.  C'mon man, really.

That’s all jet streak enhanced vertical motion. Lp still pretty far south

Yes. I'm thinking trough tilt and maybe a little wave forms on the baroclinic zone just off NJ coast which could enhance precip too. Maybe models are picking up on that. That is really expansive precip field regardless.

Rgem=bleh. Closed low just slips strait East consequently the surface low does too

GFS looking amped. It’s north at 36 hrs.

One additional factor that could aid in expansion of precip further north could be how convective this thing can get while further south - specifically with regard to latent heat release which could help raise heights. If that were to become a wildcard it would be something the meso/shorter range models might pick up on during the day tomorrow.

The trend to hold back the energy and the confluence ticked N and weaker again. Let's keep this going.
RGEM 500 was better and made nice improvements but surface was blah. Not good with this. Euro up next.

Gfs=oh baby. Came a tad further N.

I’m off to bed. Can’t stay up.

GFS pushing > 1' of snow deep into Ocean County, LOL! AC with 18".

I just cannot wrap my head around it. I think it may be forming another wave off the baroclinic zone to get that kind of lift that far north.

KEEP REELING BABY!!