Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Man just looked at the H5 on 18Z GFS. This is literally an hour or two faster development from having dumped dumped 12"+ on NYC. That trough tilt is ominous and not indicative of a miss. Not one bit indicative of a miss for the I95.

That totally looks gorgeous, I can't see a miss with that either, too many times when I have seen that look we have had a blockbuster storm. lets hope the LR models just never got this and the 18z NAM was just a fluke and the other SR models which will really start to be in range tonight and tomorrow show the juju.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:When you say I 95 thats kinda confusing to me as it is right along the water, are you saying the general area like my area (NNJ, southern westchester NYC CT, RI etc? I have always wondered what ythe borderlines of _95 area exactly when it comes to weather.

I'm saying from PHL-NYC points east that looks like a major snowfall.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:When you say I 95 thats kinda confusing to me as it is right along the water, are you saying the general area like my area (NNJ, southern westchester NYC CT, RI etc? I have always wondered what ythe borderlines of _95 area exactly when it comes to weather.

Take the I-95 down into NJ, it heads SW, so if you follow it up it runs up through the Bronx to NE.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Man just looked at the H5 on 18Z GFS. This is literally an hour or two faster development from having dumped dumped 12"+ on NYC. That trough tilt is ominous and not indicative of a miss. Not one bit indicative of a miss for the I95.

That totally looks gorgeous, I can't see a miss with that either, too many times when I have seen that look we have had a blockbuster storm. lets hope the LR models just never got this and the 18z NAM was just a fluke and the other SR models which will really start to be in range tonight and tomorrow show the juju.

If that is the storm that is coming I will take chances with that look. It's snowed a whole hell of a lot more than a few inches with far worse looks than that.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:22 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:When you say I 95 thats kinda confusing to me as it is right along the water, are you saying the general area like my area (NNJ, southern westchester NYC CT, RI etc? I have always wondered what ythe borderlines of _95 area exactly when it comes to weather.

Take the I-95 down into NJ, it heads SW, so if you follow it up it runs up through the Bronx to NE.

Yeah I understand where it is lol, I drive it all the time just I am barely north of 95, so I guess it is close enough to put me in that category. Though I hope this can back a bit further west than that for other folks. keep pulling guys!! Big runs tonight, won't they have the recon entirely new data in?

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:25 pm

Wise words from one of the Greats…

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 10 12db0a10

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:27 pm

Jesus I love that man

Best Met around

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus I love that man

Best Met around

Yea he’s definitely the most down to earth non hype met in the local market.

by dolphins222 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:31 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus I love that man

Best Met around

Yea he’s definitely the most down to earth non hype met in the local market.

Jeff Smith is also really good. they got 2 of the best Mets in the country imo

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:35 pm

Is 18z Euro out just for S & G?

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:39 pm

I am still at work and everyone one is asking me are we getting a blizzard .I told them I don’t know anymore lol

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm

frank 638 wrote:I am still at work and everyone one is asking me are we getting a blizzard .I told them I don’t know anymore lol

I removed my FB post due to the same thing and for fear it might jinx the storm more.

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:53 pm

It’s deafening here wow , not good

by **lglickman1** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:59 pm

Artechmetals wrote:It’s deafening here wow , not good

I think everyone is taking a break to maintain their sanity before the next round of model runs. Today has been a Rollercoaster of sorts

by **Irish** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:12 pm

Again, just providing a data point from one source, yes TWC, however, I've gone from 8-12", to 4-8", and now it's 1-3". That's bad trending. We'll see where this goes now...

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:13 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:It’s deafening here wow , not good

I think everyone is taking a break to maintain their sanity before the next round of model runs. Today has been a Rollercoaster of sorts

I’ve been following the forum for years it’s always been a roller coaster ride one day good the other bad lol …. So if you do the math by Saturday we should be in good shape .

by freezerburn Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:15 pm

No one has posted but the 18z Euro looks a hell of a lot better than 12z

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:17 pm

The Euro closed off. A bit ragged on the ULL. Just a hair away from moving 12"+ much further west. Just needed better consolidation. Placement was just fine.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 10 Euroul19

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:18 pm

This storm still has the potential to drop 1'+ on the I-95.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:21 pm

freezerburn wrote:No one has posted but the 18z Euro looks a hell of a lot better than 12z

Yes it was. The ULL closed off in a good location. If was better consolidated it would've pushed excessive total much further westward.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:27 pm

The moment of truth I think is coming soon for this system. I believe we start to see some more positive changes across more guidance if this is going to happen 00Z tonight or 12Z tomorrow latest. I've made my peace with it and if need be will be storm chasing it.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:Everyone focused on the surface and snow maps. This isnt Thrusday, its Wed.

Anyone who has already jumped just give me the shout and I’ll throw you the life preserver.

THIS
AINT
OVA!!!

WE TRACK!!!!! What a Face

by **billg315** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:27 pm

I wouldn’t trust the European model right now. It’s probably distracted by the situation in the Ukraine.

by gigs68 Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:28 pm

I'll take 18 inches

TWSS

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:29 pm

Oh plz plz continue to come west, doubt we get into what shows for mass or eastern LI but it appears anything is possible with these wild swings, back to 10+ IMBY, not focusing on that but i like the movement back west not east.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:35 pm

I'm going to make argument that the GFS 18Z trough tilt at hour 66 is much better than Euro 18Z trough tilt. Im also going to make the argument that the GFS not closing off the ULL is probably full of horse poop.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:45 pm

The models IMO are having a hel l of a time with the expanse of the snow shield west. There is a huge analogous watm moist fetch with the and with a deepening LP it keeps the convection more east and doesn't wrap it over which is odd as we have seen with coastal.

To Frank points on the NS. We need this in a true N S trajectory which is key to hammer into the SW. This is so KEY for tjis and however further east bu 50 or 150 miles we can getbthis Southern Energy will make the world of difference.

There is some energy moving off of Fla I have noticed that may be dampening some of the energy for this storm. Now how it affects it if at all remains to be seen but looking at all things here.

Remember what I said at 6:40 this morning?
The SE jog, one or two ticks, coastal storm phase of the evolution only to have it start to come back NW.
Be patient.

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