Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[SENJsnowman]

Mugsy, can you give me an extension through 12z before we pull the plug here?

Make no mistake, the 18z and 00z runs did NOT walk the storm back towards the coast as I kinda suspected (and hoped!) they would, and nothing has shown more than 2-4" at the coast for this storm since like 12z on Wednesday. So as of now, no reason to think that there is any real upside potential for even a mothra-size storm or better.

Or is there?

I am still a bit optimistic that the NAM has been consistently getting just a bit juicier as it has moved into in range, and the Euro and GFS both had a higher qpf this morning than they did last night, so maybe we still have a slight maybe.

That latest NAM run though...I would like to see that trend continue for the 12z run.



GFS- the least juiced of the 3



The Euro has quietly kept the precip closer to the coast all week i'd say


And the NAM, yeah, I wanna see how this progresses for at least 1 more run. I mean we are still 48+ hrs out...

[heehaw453]

The 500mb trough has enough energy to produce a few inches of snow.  It'll be quick and that's the issue.  The 06Z NAM is aggressive, but it's the NAM.  Good phasing of the streams IMO is off the table.  IF and it's a bit IF this does overperform it'll be southern energy shot like a cannon out of the trough.  And the western ridge giving it the momentum and spin to produce that energy.

Right now c-2" is what I would expect.

NAM

[SENJsnowman]

Gotchu heehaw! So what I'm seeing is really the ONLY source of upside- a bit of enhanced qpf from the southern energy. No blocking or phasing means no real upside potential. And as you say, that's a big if on even getting a nice thump from the southern energy, too.

Ultimately, you were right on the money- the GFS laid out the goal posts as between c-2" and maybe as high as 5-6" for the coast, and it's narrowed it down to most likely c-2".

Now, start factoring in things like very warm temps for Saturday and a warm ground and we may end up closer to the C than the 2! lol Win some-Lose some!!

(Still checking in on the 12Z runs though...I just have a tiny bit of fight left in me on this one!! lol)

[sroc4]

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Going back to this post a few days ago I bolded a key point here. Up to now it has appeared that not only is the southern energy being strung out it isn’t getting out ahead of the northern energy but rather much of it is lagging behind the N energy. This fact can’t be understated. This positioning invariably ends up resulting in the N energy acting to steer our wave ENE under progressive Atlantic conditions instead of enhancing or adding to (phasing) with the southern energy leading to the tilt of the trough required to adjust the storm track more NE or NNE, strengthen the low and throw precip back from the developing low.

[sroc4]

I still get this feeling eastern sections needs to cont to follow this.

That is all

I TRACK!!!

[SENJsnowman]

I still get this feeling eastern sections needs to cont to follow this.

That is all

I TRACK!!!

If I got a breath of life in me, then I still got a breath of fight in me. I’m tracking with ya!

[freezerburn]

12z NAM 3k showing more precipitation southern NJ 4-6 inches.

[Irish]

Beautiful Spring storm coming for the 17th-18th, temps into the 50s. Maybe an inch of rain.

[Irish]

12z NAM 3k showing more precipitation  southern NJ 4-6 inches.

But what about the SUPERBOWL PARTY?!?!?!?!?

[amugs]

DC to ELI Jackpot on this - as the wise ol DOCSTOX has said time n time again - once the pattern settles in that's what you can can expect. Until the next reshuffle which will be around March 10thish when teh EPO adn WPO both go back Negative.

SNJ and ELI peeps enjoy the white gold.

[Grselig]

Beautiful Spring storm coming for the 17th-18th, temps into the 50s.  Maybe an inch of rain.

This is banter. But why beautiful. I say heartbreaking a winter of tears and lost opportunity for many of us! But 100% congratulations to the winners!

[heehaw453]

I still get this feeling eastern sections needs to cont to follow this.

That is all

I TRACK!!!

These setups can overperform for some.  You will see Bernie come on and say the southern energy was a little stronger than what the GFS was showing.  Watch the jet streak...

[SENJsnowman]

The tingle of what was a wilted C-2” slowly reblooming its potential back 2-4”, with still 48 hrs to go!

Here we are, with a short range high res model still showing that 4-6” for SNJ as we bear down on game time. Still enough time left for slight changes for the better too (and for worse).

[sroc4]

I still get this feeling eastern sections needs to cont to follow this.

That is all

I TRACK!!!

These setups can overperform for some.  You will see Bernie come on and say the southern energy was a little stronger than what the GFS was showing.  Watch the jet streak...

Isnt that for every storm? Some over perform; some under perform. Some of the S/R Hi Res guidance (12and 3k NAM/RGEM) may be hinting at a little wrinkle that could throw back moisture independent of the initial overrunning event. With still 36-48hrs before game time there could be an extra few inches to be had for Suffolk County esp.

What does Bernie have to do with it?

[heehaw453]

I still get this feeling eastern sections needs to cont to follow this.

That is all

I TRACK!!!

These setups can overperform for some.  You will see Bernie come on and say the southern energy was a little stronger than what the GFS was showing.  Watch the jet streak...

Isnt that for every storm?  Some over perform; some under perform.  Some of the S/R Hi Res guidance (12and 3k NAM/RGEM) may be hinting at a little wrinkle that could throw back moisture independent of the initial overrunning event.  With still 36-48hrs before game time there could be an extra few inches to be had for Suffolk County esp.    

What does Bernie have to do with it?  

A little more tongue on cheek on my post. Basically Bernie's latest twitter stream on this said it's a non event as the southern energy is too strung out and the GFS aligned to this yesterday. I think c-2" myself, but just funny whenever we get too confident of an outcome it usually backfires.

[Irish]

Beautiful Spring storm coming for the 17th-18th, temps into the 50s.  Maybe an inch of rain.

This is banter. But why beautiful.   I say heartbreaking a winter of tears and lost opportunity for many of us!  But 100% congratulations to the winners!

Sarcasm, I hate rain in winter.  And not really banter as I was reporting/discussing weather in the long range, preceded by banter.  Sneaky...sneaky.  

[sroc4]

Beautiful Spring storm coming for the 17th-18th, temps into the 50s.  Maybe an inch of rain.

This is banter. But why beautiful.   I say heartbreaking a winter of tears and lost opportunity for many of us!  But 100% congratulations to the winners!

Sarcasm, I hate rain in winter.  And not really banter as I was reporting/discussing weather in the long range, preceded by banter.  Sneaky...sneaky.  

Ok Ok back to LR discussion

[SENJsnowman]

Short Range Models:

12z 3k NAM:



12z RGEM



12z HRDPS (12z run is through 7 am Sunday)



Will it? Won't it? A little? A lot?

It feels like it's been non-stop since New Years!    

[SENJsnowman]

GFS. At least by QPF, across all the guidance (except maybe the Euro) looks like the 48 hr NW bug might be starting to bite, at least a little.

[Frank_Wx]

There’s enough PVA and WAA for there to be a “snow outbreak” on Sunday which could drop a couple of inches along the coast.

[SENJsnowman]

18z NAM drops as much or more onto NNJ/LHV than it does Coastal NJ. Just sayin'...

[SENJsnowman]

18z GFS. Anyone like this trend as we inch ever closer to kickoff?

[heehaw453]

18z NAM drops as much or more onto NNJ/LHV than it does Coastal NJ. Just sayin'...

The path to an overperformer is the strength of the upper level JS.  The models are starting to expand precip field because of it.  If you see this bump stronger one more time at 00Z it's prob legit chance to overperform. If not, then I'd expect c-2".

[Koroptim]

Given temps next week rise through the 50’s, I’m rather glad this doesn’t produce any meaningful snow.

[richb521]

18z NAM drops as much or more onto NNJ/LHV than it does Coastal NJ. Just sayin'...

The path to an overperformer is the strength of the upper level JS.  The models are starting to expand precip field because of it.  If you see this bump stronger one more time at 00Z it's prob legit chance to overperform.  If not, then I'd expect c-2".

Would be a nice and pleasant surprise to be within one of those purple chicken pox dots of heavier snow this Sunday if this pans out. To add a couple solid days of snowpack before the warmth returns. Fingers crossed

[SENJsnowman]

I feel as though this ‘storm’ is being reasonable. It’s said, “I can’t make a phase, that’s off the table and that’s that. BUT, I’m going to do what I can to make this a decent snow outbreak for all!”

[Snow88]

There is usually a pattern breaker storm. Too bad this storm can't phase in time.

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