Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Dec 11, 2022 12:26 pm

[/quote] Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December! They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition. [/quote]

Well said, Irish! Those are my thoughts/feelings on the matter word for word.

by **amugs** Sun Dec 11, 2022 12:58 pm

GFS OP wil come around to whatis happening today - I do not look at this OP model until...it shsows a bomb LOL!! GESF are onto to this:
Sharper Ridge out west, jet streak much further so the Surface LP is around where the x marks the spot..benchmark, 50/50 LP and NAO block and AO. If you want to see a snowstorm along I95 this is what you want as your set up. The oprational should catch up to this idea.
My thoughts are not wavering on this nor the pattern thorugh until the 1st week of January before we relax it. Models are to quick to break it down IMO. Jan thaw then a fierce reload that may last through midish March even early April. Time will tell with all.

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TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 11 Fjth2xTWYAYxg_w?format=jpg&name=medium

by **amugs** Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:01 pm

Getting there, snow for I80ish N with some mixing in NNJ then as it pullls away all snow.
HV gets whacked as does NWNJ and NE PA with this setup

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TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 11 Fjtkmh2XwAQ-A0R?format=jpg&name=medium

by **brownie** Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:54 pm

Oops, wrong thread.

by **Irish** Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:55 pm

Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December! They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition. [/quote]

Well said, Irish! Those are my thoughts/feelings on the matter word for word.[/quote]

From very early on when I joined this forum, I always felt like you were my twin when it came to how we felt about winter weather and tracking. The anticipation is my favorite part and the irony is we both struggle to jackpot but love it anyhow!

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 11, 2022 5:24 pm

Irish wrote:Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December! They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition.

I think you speak for a many of us with these words Irish. If you live south of say 78 or say Staten Island and or live along the coastal plain a white Christmas really has been elusive. Great post

by **Irish** Sun Dec 11, 2022 5:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December! They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition.

I think you speak for a many of us with these words Irish. If you live south of say 78 or say Staten Island and or live along the coastal plain a white Christmas really has been elusive. Great post

Thx. Yeah I'm in southern Middlesex county (Old Bridge), close to Ocean. So we rarely get Pre-Xmas meaningful snow.

by **amugs** Sun Dec 11, 2022 7:12 pm

UM N AO with a twin N EPO and +PNA and oh a N NAO will just drill the arctic old air in and an arctic cross ploar flow - with a deep trough in blue = snow chances bigly!!
First Day of winter!
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TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 11 FjvBUQKXgAEYdJm?format=png&name=medium

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 11, 2022 8:29 pm

Friday snow storm is Binghamton on north into CNE as the ULL is getting yanked up to Wisconsin and that's not a favorable spot for this area to get sig snow especially on the I95/coastal plain. Probably prudent to wait until Tuesday night before writing it off though.

After Friday storm goes by more sustained and deeper cold enters the EC via EPO. There will be many more chances as this cold settles in, and of course we still need the timing of the s/w's to capitalize on a big event, but even a front loaded system can produce several inches of snow as long as the antecedent air mass is cold. Bullish on December...

by **dkodgis** Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:36 pm

Ladies and gentlemen, and children of all ages-

Is it time for a sticky for the potential Thurs storm?

by **Irish** Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:45 pm

dkodgis wrote:Ladies and gentlemen, and children of all ages-

Is it time for a sticky for the potential Thurs storm?

Looks like some N&W will see snow but it'll be mid 40s- lower 50s and rain for a good chunk of the board, no?

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 11, 2022 10:33 pm

Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ladies and gentlemen, and children of all ages-

Is it time for a sticky for the potential Thurs storm?

Looks like some N&W will see snow but it'll be mid 40s- lower 50s and rain for a good chunk of the board, no?

As it’s modeled right now. Unfortunately yes

by **dkodgis** Sun Dec 11, 2022 10:36 pm

Always the bridesmaid and never the bride Very Happy

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:09 am

dkodgis wrote:Always the bridesmaid and never the bride

Looks like a snow to rain event for us Damian, more for you,less for me.Too warm for all snow.

by **phil155** Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:14 am

Hopefully this storm will mark a pattern change and some the storms after it can deliver some good snow

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:02 am

dkodgis wrote:Ladies and gentlemen, and children of all ages-

Is it time for a sticky for the potential Thurs storm?

I think that's reasonable especially for the NW folks. Please post here for December 16.

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:51 am

This is going to make a run at record lows and break many next week leading up to after Xmas as the AO just tanks!! Arctic cross ploar flow of air - buckle and bundle up peeps, next week gonna be wicked!

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TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 11 FjyT8sFXgAAcP1N?format=png&name=medium

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by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:54 am

Nice set up for stormsd leading up until Xmas: Ridge ou West I wold like it about 100miles more east but the blocks will take care of that over teh top. This has a Miller A set up.

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TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 11 FjyCdBSWIAEVcL-?format=jpg&name=medium

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:02 pm

HOLY COLD!!

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by **MattyICE** Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:08 pm

amugs wrote:HOLY COLD!!

Just how we want to be - on the PERIPHERY of the deep cold where the natural boundary sets up.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:11 pm

I'm getting a little giddy looking at some of these long range maps. I mentioned earlier I believe in the pattern the week leading into Christmas more than I believe in the pattern this week, which is why I'm kinda down about any widespread snow threat this Friday.

The EPO is going to record negative levels while the NAO is also looking to stay negative as we move into the 22nd-23rd time frame. This leaves the window for a significant storm to unfold between the 22nd and 1st. We'll be able to hone in on smaller ranges this weekend...

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:51 pm

HOLY SCHNIKES - THIS IS GETTING BRUTAL COLD FOR DECEMBER!! COLDER EACH RUN!!

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TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 11 FjxvcagUUAEHF8S?format=png&name=medium

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:51 pm

amugs wrote:HOLY SCHNIKES - THIS IS GETTING BRUTAL COLD FOR DECEMBER!! COLDER EACH RUN!!

Between the SSWE and anomalous -EPO we’re looking at extreme cold

by **dkodgis** Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:43 pm

About Dec 22?

by **Irish** Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:55 pm

dkodgis wrote:About Dec 22?

That's the time frame I've moved my interest to. The Thurs- Fri storm this week is nothing but an absolute washout.

by **docstox12** Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:12 am

Hope the pattern does change for us because all I have been seeing since Nov 1 is snowstorm after snowstorm hitting the Central, North Central and NW Central of the USA. Their pattern is producing big time.

by **mmanisca** Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:HOLY SCHNIKES - THIS IS GETTING BRUTAL COLD FOR DECEMBER!! COLDER EACH RUN!!

Between the SSWE and anomalous -EPO we’re looking at extreme cold

But we can’t get the east coast snowstorm…Ugh. Mild and wet followed by very cold and dry…After the artic dump do we end up going back to troughing out west.

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