2023 Atlantic Tropics season

amugs wrote:

LAWD HELP US IF THIS HAFS-B RUN VERIFIES! This would basically be New England's Sandy verbatim! Headed NW at the end of the run. Lots of time left for this to change! pic.twitter.com/lKzseeDmnD

— Matthew Gross (@HurricaneAddict) September 11, 2023

Holy yikes

Does this model have any clout? Never heard of it, I presume it falls under the HWRF category? The intensity is nuts too. That projected out looks like it would be a NJ landfall. Just waiting and seeing, was just curious since you posted it. You always post stuff that is of use. And you were not harsh, scott on the other hand with the head bashing, lordy that was a bit much.

Per NHC 5 pm public advisory:

"DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 64.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few
days."

Lee Goldberg thinks the next trough will keep Lee offshore, with maybe some clouds from Lee this weekend. He seems to think it will be very very close to Cape Cod.

Little left lean in new cone. 115mph, WNW movement again. Going to rocket once he turns north.

The HAFS-B which is what mugs posted above, if it has any credibility held the exact same track at 18z....

Moving NW to WNW at this end point, will be another day or so to see where it actually goes, and if it holds any ground.

Dunnzoo wrote:Per NHC 5 pm public advisory:

"DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 64.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few
days."

Lee Goldberg thinks the next trough will keep Lee offshore, with maybe some clouds from Lee this weekend. He seems to think it will be very very close to Cape Cod.

If this storm is on the cape the windfield is going to be so huge which all models show it will be. It would reach to, if not beyond NYC. Now of course that's not the brunt but to say its only going to give a few clouds may be a tad early to say that, but he is the pro met so it is strongly noted.

Any thoughts rb? Haven't heard from you in a bit.

Looking more likely now that LI is safe from a direct hit. Mostl likely a breezy day for the board. Another 24-36 hrs before I officially call it.

O0z euro came farther west having a flirt of a cape cod landfall and what i am guessing would be a very rare maine landfall. NHC though has him as a weak TS 60mph at that time. Strength I think will be hard to determine as he goes extratropical and windfield expands. He is already a large hurricane as it is. Brings ts force winds back as far as central to western LI and CT. A landfall looks unlikely west of cape cod (unless these west movements continue to occur) but at that reach impacts would be felt for LI and even further west as windfield is going to be huge. I'm gonna be out in Eastern CT and RI Fri and heading back to NY Sat midday so likely gonna go check out the waves at the beaches Friday even if outer effects miss, but am a bit concerned by what the Euro is showing right at the time I am supposed to be heading back.

Helllloooooo surprised so quiet on here..

weatherwatchermom wrote:Helllloooooo surprised so quiet on here..

As of now 90% of the board stands to get some gusty conditions. There is no doubt that some trop storm force gusts are still possible depending on just how close to Cape Cod Lee gets, esp for eastern half of LI, but overall this one is fading. Again its not a done deal yet, so Ill still give it another day or so.

Latest ensembles Euro then GFS

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Helllloooooo surprised so quiet on here..

As of now 90% of the board stands to get some gusty conditions.  There is no doubt that some trop storm force gusts are still possible depending on just how close to Cape Cod Lee gets, esp for eastern half of LI, but overall this one is fading.  Again its not a done deal yet, so Ill still give it another day or so.  

thank you! I guessed by the quietness that a real threat is not here for us at this time. ..thank goodness. Just worried about the track for New England. My son and niece in Providence..and have several friends kids in Mass schools.  I thought we had to worry about the cold and the snow..not possible hurricanes..lol Thank you again for the update!

sroc4 wrote:Latest ensembles Euro then GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/ecmwf-bufr/lee13l//1694476800/1694476800-OUBfbOXtWTk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/gfs-atcf/lee13l//1694498400/1694498400-r30k2waJcYc.png

euro rnsembles are starkly opposite of gfs wonder eho eins. Im thinkimg gfs. Im def go see stronger im packs as ill be as far east as tip LI. The pass is looking about sat correct? My friend has flight out bradley in CT at 3pm.if western track closer or over cape happens there may b issues for that.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Latest ensembles Euro then GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/ecmwf-bufr/lee13l//1694476800/1694476800-OUBfbOXtWTk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/gfs-atcf/lee13l//1694498400/1694498400-r30k2waJcYc.png

euro rnsembles are starkly opposite of gfs wonder eho eins. Im thinkimg gfs. Im def go see stronger im packs as ill be as far east as tip LI. The pass is looking about sat correct? My friend has flight out bradley in CT at 3pm.if western track closer or over cape happens there may b issues for that.

The spread of both ensembles encompases the NHC cone of uncertainty.  And both ensembles have the same width to their pread,  GFS more concentrated east, euro west.  There is a reason why its so big.  Truth is in the middle.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Latest ensembles Euro then GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/ecmwf-bufr/lee13l//1694476800/1694476800-OUBfbOXtWTk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/tctracks/gfs-atcf/lee13l//1694498400/1694498400-r30k2waJcYc.png

euro ensembles are starkly opposite of gfs wonder eho eins. Im thinkimg gfs. Im def go see stronger im packs as ill be as far east as tip LI. The pass is looking about sat correct? My friend has flight out bradley in CT at 3pm.if western track closer or over cape happens there may b issues for that.

The spread of both ensembles encompases the NHC cone of uncertainty.  And both ensembles have the same width to their pread,  GFS more concentrated east, euro west.  There is a reason why its so big.  Truth is in the middle.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085309_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

yeah the cone is perfect until we get the turn then we hopefully get a better hold on track. some of those euro ensembles are not good especially for id say hudson river to cape cod. Thats presuming the windfield expands as much as sandy. Do we expect a expansion that big? You see that one ensemble that loops over RI and cape yikes. Needless to say ill be storm chasing since ill already be out there ill post pics. Are there any wave hight maps yet? Sorry if some my comments annoyed u. U know i get excited. Even if theres not major impacts the thrill of tracking is fun. Rb where are ya?!

Looks to zig zag in between NS and SNE pic.twitter.com/ApLQ0W6gdH

— StormchaserJS (@stormchaserjs) September 12, 2023

amugs wrote:

Looks to zig zag in between NS and SNE pic.twitter.com/ApLQ0W6gdH

— StormchaserJS (@stormchaserjs) September 12, 2023

some of those right iver RI that would b bad even here. Still large spread.

Wife and I are in Falmouth Cape Cod until Thursday and will be happy to leave,LOL.Right now, beautiful sunny day near 80 degrees.Driving around, you see evacuation route signs.Glad I live in the LHV of NY!

docstox12 wrote:Wife and I are in Falmouth Cape Cod until Thursday and will be happy to leave,LOL.Right now, beautiful sunny day near 80 degrees.Driving around, you see evacuation route signs.Glad I live in the LHV of NY!

Be safe and enjoy the beautiful day! Give us news updates..

Hey WeatherMomma check your private messages

sroc4 wrote:Hey WeatherMomma check your private messages  

I dm'd you back I should be hot mess momma right now!!

docstox12 wrote:Wife and I are in Falmouth Cape Cod until Thursday and will be happy to leave,LOL.Right now, beautiful sunny day near 80 degrees.Driving around, you see evacuation route signs. Glad I live in the LHV of NY!

Are they evacuating cape cod, or just see the signs? I will be in eastern CT and going to RI Fri to view the surf. Hopefully Sat is not too bad but I will be 150 miles east of Yonkers, Wednesday night will be too late to cancel my plans and my friend has a 3pm flight out of CT on Sat, we shall see. Beautiful there, we used to spend two weeks every summer in Wellfleet, from the last week of June to usually a few days past July 4th. Great times, I used to battle the waves boogie boarding for hours (loved the eye candy as a teen lol, I often was sitting doing nothing my dad said "Jon you should be out there look at all the girls lol".)Yes in the freezing water no wetsuit. Now it is too scary with all the great white's coming around. If you knew my father you would know why I was surprised he said that (strict Yale professor, but very kind heart). We used to rent a house, I actually proposed to my wife there later on after we stopped going yearly : )

Levi finally put out a update, haven't watched it yet. In short still feels the potential for a hook into cape area is possible like the Euro shows and will be come clearer as we expected in the next few days, it is still technically 4-5 days out which a lot can change and the speed of Lee with regards to being west or north in NHC cone will determine if the GFS or Euro winds out, so we need to watch the forward speed once he turns. Likely will be a Cat 1 at best which makes sense but with a huge wind field.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=vVG4JE_-a2o&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo

jmanley32 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Wife and I are in Falmouth Cape Cod until Thursday and will be happy to leave,LOL.Right now, beautiful sunny day near 80 degrees.Driving around, you see evacuation route signs. Glad I live in the LHV of NY!

Are they evacuating cape cod, or just see the signs? I will be in eastern CT and going to RI Fri to view the surf. Hopefully Sat is not too bad but I will be 150 miles east of Yonkers, Wednesday night will be too late to cancel my plans and my friend has a 3pm flight out of CT on Sat, we shall see. Beautiful there, we used to spend two weeks every summer in Wellfleet, from the last week of June to usually a few days past July 4th. Great times, I used to battle the waves boogie boarding for hours (loved the eye candy as a teen lol, I often was sitting doing nothing my dad said "Jon you should be out there look at all the girls lol".)Yes in the freezing water no wetsuit. Now it is too scary with all the great white's coming around.  If you knew my father you would know why I was surprised he said that (strict Yale professor, but very kind heart).  We used to rent a house, I actually proposed to my wife there later on after we stopped going yearly : )

He said there were signs..no one pays attention to them until you need them. We have them all over down here on the jersey coast. He said he would leave if they want..so no not evacuating at this time.

weatherwatchermom wrote:watching levi's video..omg..how the heck is any official going to make a decision on what emergency services need to be put in place. Gfs models the storm moving faster and therefore missing the major effects on USA and Euro has a different solution..this is nuts.

As I said we are going to have to watch his forward speed once he turns or if he turns later, which would also bring him slightly closer to 70W, he is at about 65W now, which honestly is further west than I thought he would get. But being he looks to hook I don't think thr 70W thing holds anymore, as he heads north he gets pretty close. I have a feeling we won't know until it is kinda too late, luckily and hopefully the intensity will go way down but even TS force winds with the saturated ground and tomorrows flooding potential and full leaves wont take much to make a mess. I think your son will be fine if he listens to you and just hunkers down, as I stated I will be further east towards cape by about 150 miles which will mean a big difference if Lee were to pull the Euro track. Levi's video was really good and spot on, easy to understand. Overall I think we can handle this one even if we were to take a direct hit which isn't going to happen.

Looks like 12z Euro is east of the 00z but not by a ton, still gives cape to RI some strong impacts. Wind field is ridiculous, look how far out strong TS force winds go, well into CT about New Haven county, even minimal TS force winds into far eastern Westchester county.




As Levi said he actually slows down when he reaches this area sticking around for about 12 hrs or so.

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:watching levi's video..omg..how the heck is any official going to make a decision on what emergency services need to be put in place. Gfs models the storm moving faster and therefore missing the major effects on USA and Euro has a different solution..this is nuts.

As I said we are going to have to watch his forward speed once he turns or if he turns later, which would also bring him slightly closer to 70W, he is at about 65W now, which honestly is further west than I thought he would get. But being he looks to hook I don't think thr 70W thing holds anymore, as he heads north he gets pretty close. I have a feeling we won't know until it is kinda too late, luckily and hopefully the intensity will go way down but even TS force winds with the saturated ground and tomorrows flooding potential and full leaves wont take much to make a mess. I think your son will be fine if he listens to you and just hunkers down, as I stated I will be further east towards cape by about 150 miles which will mean a big difference if Lee were to pull the Euro track. Levi's video was really good and spot on, easy to understand. Overall I think we can handle this one even if we were to take a direct hit which isn't going to happen.

thanks...yes I think they should be ok. but its just nuts that the models can be so different. that is what is driving me crazy....lol he is all set with everything he needs and my niece right on the water my sister is waiting to hear what the school says..she has her car..which will have to be moved somewhere.lol like I said earlier I was more worried about Snow and cold..cant wait for lee to be out of here!!!