September Obs & Discussions
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Grselig
dsix85
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sroc4
Math23x7
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kalleg
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weatherwatchermom
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amugs
23 posters
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
amugs wrote:Weekend storm coastal showing up - buckle up?
Let's get that pattern clicked in solid by November so we can have an epic winter.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
That would be great! Last years grand total of 5 inches from one storm was just a incredible joke, only plus was easy street parking and no back breaking shoveling (hopefully my shoulder, rotator cuff injury right arm, is better from physical therapy by winter).docstox12 wrote:amugs wrote:Weekend storm coastal showing up - buckle up?
Let's get that pattern clicked in solid by November so we can have an epic winter.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
three inche of rain so far.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Just a soaker of a day, dried out for a while only to have a few hours of intense rain and thunder from about 5-7. I am so sick of all this rain, and this weekend will be a wash too if that system develops off SC.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Here comes our first Nor'easter of the season
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Ghost of 96?? Nor'easter !!
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png)
Imagine when, not if this is winter!!
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_23](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_apcpn_neus_23.png)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png)
Imagine when, not if this is winter!!
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_23](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023091912/gfs_apcpn_neus_23.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Hope that storm you picture above Mugs, gets the pattern in line for a classic winter!
Picture perfect homeowner day, no AC or heat needed,LOL.69 degrees, partly cloudy, light winds,low humidity.Fall comes in a few days!!!! Will be in the 40's at night the next few nights up here.Trees changing now.
Picture perfect homeowner day, no AC or heat needed,LOL.69 degrees, partly cloudy, light winds,low humidity.Fall comes in a few days!!!! Will be in the 40's at night the next few nights up here.Trees changing now.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...![:shamrock: ☘](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/2618.png?v=2.2.7)
![:shamrock: ☘](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/2618.png?v=2.2.7)
![:shamrock: ☘](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/2618.png?v=2.2.7)
![:shamrock: ☘](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/2618.png?v=2.2.7)
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...
Not by much. Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble. Have a feeling its coming north
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...
Not by much. Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble. Have a feeling its coming north
GFS and its Ensemble...pretty sure area wide 1-3" is a good bet at this point. Time for change though
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 1695859200-6zFHNQbjG4g](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/neng/total_precip_inch/1695124800/1695859200-6zFHNQbjG4g.png)
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
I won't let the rain spoil my trip..it's Ireland..I just don't want to give the airlines an excuse to delay lol ..going to rain every day..lol I am ready..don't let rain spoil your day!!jmanley32 wrote:No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
loldkodgis wrote:https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Yup you are right, i cant see the ensembles and they usually paint a better picture. And remember there will likely be imbedded t-storms especially if this storm does actually develop some sort of circulation then tornadoes become possible as do much higher localized rain amounts. Seems my area has been the brunt of many of these flooding rains.sroc4 wrote:sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...
Not by much. Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble. Have a feeling its coming north
GFS and its Ensemble...pretty sure area wide 1-3" is a good bet at this point. Time for change though
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
dkodgis wrote:https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared
Exactly..lol
![:joy: 😂](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/1f602.png?v=2.2.7)
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Model round up
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6diBUWWQAAT5Ma?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6diBUWWQAAT5Ma?format=jpg&name=large)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
That CMC is crazy all the way up to canadian border wow. And nice call scott, Euro dide go sig closer to the area, looks like consensus is a washout weekend, just not exactly sure about amounts but ya 1-3+ i think isa good bed. im inclined to bet over 2 is more likely than 1.amugs wrote:Model round up
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.
RB- live out in eastern LI near Sroc- any chance this rain holds off until Saturday afternoon? Golf outing Saturday morning in Greenport, LI that I hope we might have a fighting chance to get in.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Bastardi sees TS landfall in SC, would the coast include NYC and immediate suburbs or are you talking like LI and immediate jersey shore, I know it appears anywhere that rain will be the main culprit. Is there any reason that NHC has not upped chances of development yet, as best as you can guess or analyze?rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
See map I just posted of CMC, all models are pretty honed in on it moving in Sat morning and possibly lingering till Sun night, Mon if that secondary happens. I know I had outdoor plans Sat morning too but nearly positive they are squashed.dsix85 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.
RB- live out in eastern LI near Sroc- any chance this rain holds off until Saturday afternoon? Golf outing Saturday morning in Greenport, LI that I hope we might have a fighting chance to get in.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
GEFS are wet - not build an ark wet but
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6fCcIpaQAECsnF?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6fCcIpaQAECsnF?format=jpg&name=medium)
Canadian model is a major flooding rainstorm
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6fCcIpaQAAgh0s?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6fCcIpaQAAgh0s?format=jpg&name=medium)
Canadian model is a major flooding rainstorm
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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