Re: Banter Thread 9.0

[sroc4]

I love you guys, all the “steady as she goes” contributors.  All of you do such fine research and analysis of many meteorological  conditions .  I have learned a lot and the personalities on here make it fun !

You should post more

[docstox12]

Are winters really getting warmer? This video says yes and no. I guess it all depends on how you look at it.

That is one heck of a woman there!!!

[jmanley32]

Just read up in LR and it is just rediculous. All this false hope. Not saying you all dont give great analysis but lets face it if ur on the coast all ur gonna get is rain maybe mix. Just not go happen this year. Not go say forever but part of me wants to. I think im gonna have to head north at some point or learn to like a 3 season climate. Every system thst looks promising so far has been a complete letdown at coast.

[jmanley32]

Are winters really getting warmer? This video says yes and no. I guess it all depends on how you look at it.

That is one heck of a woman there!!!

lol

[GreyBeard]

Looks like the lake effect machine is cranking today. So much so that they postponed the playoff game in Buffalo,and looking for people to shovel snow to clear stadium. That's the way the game should be played,as it was intended. Should be an interesting game tomorrow.

[Dunnzoo]

I'm looking forward to a little snow this week, but hope it waits until after 3 on Friday, my Mom has a flight to Florida at 2:30 lol

[deadrabbit79]

Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.

On plus side i dont have to bundle up or shovel.

I agree! If its not going to snow in the Winter I have no ise for the cold(which we barely get either). Just let it be warmer and I can keep mowing and caring my lawn

[weatherwatchermom]

I'm looking forward to a little snow this week, but hope it waits until after 3 on Friday, my Mom has a flight to Florida at 2:30   lol

safe travels to her...my husband travels to Florida on Sat..

[jmanley32]

Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.

On plus side i dont have to bundle up or shovel.

I agree! If its not going to snow in the Winter I have no ise for the cold(which we barely get either).  Just let it be warmer and I can keep mowing and caring my lawn

Yup as I said above we really have 3 season now (even inland) because sustained cold just does not happen much, I cannot remember the last time we had a cold stretch for weeks on end, flurries or snow showers or a storm daily, it was glorious. I have all these archieved pics of snowstorms none in the past 2-3 years at least. BTW did you get snow or rain last weekend? Was si bzarre it was snowing in parts of yonkers and not others, raining in new rochelle and snowing heavily in eastchester.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.

On plus side i dont have to bundle up or shovel.

I agree! If its not going to snow in the Winter I have no ise for the cold(which we barely get either).  Just let it be warmer and I can keep mowing and caring my lawn

Yup as I said above we really have 3 season now (even inland) because sustained cold just does not happen much, I cannot remember the last time we had a cold stretch for weeks on end, flurries or snow showers or a storm daily, it was glorious. I have all these archieved pics of snowstorms none in the past 2-3 years at least. BTW did you get snow or rain last weekend? Was si bzarre it was snowing in parts of yonkers and not others, raining in new rochelle and snowing heavily in eastchester.

Even the voice of doom and gloom the last 16 months, myself, has to push back on this a bit.

NYC had 8.3 inches on Jan 29th 2022, and Islip had 25 inches from the same storm. 3 Years ago on Feb 1-2 NYC had 17.4 inches from one storm and I had 27 inches from that storm too. I know it's been a bad stretch the last year and a half but people have short memories.

Despite a horrible winter last year I still had 28 inches, and I'm only 45 miles NNW of midtown Manhattan, 10 inches so far this year. Yes I complain a lot but we are'nt exactly Virginia, at least not yet.

[SENJsnowman]

Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.

On plus side i dont have to bundle up or shovel.

I agree! If its not going to snow in the Winter I have no ise for the cold(which we barely get either).  Just let it be warmer and I can keep mowing and caring my lawn

Yup as I said above we really have 3 season now (even inland) because sustained cold just does not happen much, I cannot remember the last time we had a cold stretch for weeks on end, flurries or snow showers or a storm daily, it was glorious. I have all these archieved pics of snowstorms none in the past 2-3 years at least. BTW did you get snow or rain last weekend? Was si bzarre it was snowing in parts of yonkers and not others, raining in new rochelle and snowing heavily in eastchester.

Even the voice of doom, myself, has to push back on this a bit.

NYC had 8.3 inches on Jan 29th 2022, and Islip had 25 inches form the same storm. 3 Years ago on Feb 1-2 NYC had 17.4 inches from one storm. I know it's been a bad stretch the last year and a half but people have short memories.

Despite a horrible winter last year I still had 28 inches, and I'm only 45 miles NNW of midtown Manhattan, 10 inches so far this year. Yes I complain a lot but we are'nt exactly Virginia, at least not yet.

Interesting that the voice of optimism, myself, would also respectfully 'push back on this a bit' and essentially for the exact same reasons. I would just add though that I've been reading for weeks now that Nino winters tend to be back loaded and typically don't get going until mid-late January. Not sure if I have that exactly right, but...

It's only a slight push back though because for sure the first half of our Old Tyme winter season (DJF) has been filled mainly with disappointing 'opportunities' and otherwise a lack of opportunities. Just give me ONE GOOD ONE before March 12-15 and it's a successful winter by me. But 10 years of living on the immediate coast after 25 years of living in South Florida leaves me with far different, lesser expectations of what a successful winter is. Until I was 13, I lived in the DC/Baltimore metro area and even at a very young age we all went into winter hoping, but not expecting, to see at least one good one.

[sroc4]

Just read up in LR and it is just rediculous. All this false hope. Not saying you all dont give great analysis but lets face it if ur on the coast all ur gonna get is rain maybe mix. Just not go happen this year. Not go say forever but part of me wants to. I think im gonna have to head north at some point or learn to like a 3 season climate. Every system thst looks promising so far has been a complete letdown at coast.

You should banished to remain in Banter thread for the rest of the season with nonsense like this.

[MattyICE]

Someone needs a break. Lol

[sroc4]

Im trying so hard to not write off this whole winter but now looks like minor event if anything tues probably the same next fri and we are nearing feb which was mentioned to not be a good month for snow. By march i am ready for warmth and garage sale flea markets opening though that too is a thing of past cuz march is now winter. Ugg im just annoyed sorry.

On plus side i dont have to bundle up or shovel.

I agree! If its not going to snow in the Winter I have no ise for the cold(which we barely get either).  Just let it be warmer and I can keep mowing and caring my lawn

Yup as I said above we really have 3 season now (even inland) because sustained cold just does not happen much, I cannot remember the last time we had a cold stretch for weeks on end, flurries or snow showers or a storm daily, it was glorious. I have all these archieved pics of snowstorms none in the past 2-3 years at least. BTW did you get snow or rain last weekend? Was si bzarre it was snowing in parts of yonkers and not others, raining in new rochelle and snowing heavily in eastchester.

Even the voice of doom and gloom the last 16 months, myself, has to push back on this a bit.

NYC had 8.3 inches on Jan 29th 2022, and Islip had 25 inches from the same storm. 3 Years ago on Feb 1-2 NYC had 17.4 inches from one storm and I had 27 inches from that storm too. I know it's been a bad stretch the last year and a half but people have short memories.

Despite a horrible winter last year I still had 28 inches, and I'm only 45 miles NNW of midtown Manhattan, 10 inches so far this year. Yes I complain a lot but we are'nt exactly Virginia, at least not yet.

[Grselig]

I hear you Jman. It can be heartbreaking.

My take, this is all possibilities. We all have seen storms disintegrate as well as become Zilla's in a day's time.

But regardless, I still love this site and reading about the possibilities from some very smart people. If it hits, great. If not, next time. Or next season. At least at this point in my life, I have seem some great winter storms.

But I do take hurricanes and now flooding more seriously as peoples lives are at stake.

Wishing everyone a wonderful and healthy 2024!!!

[docstox12]

Jman, you have to admit you have been cashing in on some good wind events with the cutters and today!
Now, let's get an area wide Roidzilla Miller A with high winds and the much beloved "B" word warning!!

[WeatherBob]

I just find it fascinating on trying to forecast Wind gusts, especiallly in our area with many localized typographical features . If you look at the wind gusts from yesterday, widespread 45 to 60 mph gusts at reporting stations. The west to northwest winds have always been the leader in wind gusts in this area, except maybe the south shore of L I with south winds but I am not familar with the local weather there.

Then there was Sandy, but excluding Sandy

The most prolific wind gust event of my lifetime occurred on April 6, 1982. Low bombed off AC and deepened to 960 just off the Maine coast in 12 hrs. We had thunder snow and 10 to 12 in of snow. The upper trough kicked thru in the eve with a super snow squall. The winds then started to roar with widespread 60 mph gusts and blizzard conditions in blowing snow. Drifts 6 to 10 ft.

[jmanley32]

I just find it fascinating on trying to forecast Wind gusts, especiallly in our area with many localized typographical features .  If you look at the wind gusts from yesterday,  widespread 45 to 60 mph gusts at reporting stations.  The west to northwest winds have always been the leader in wind gusts in this area, except maybe the south shore of L I with south winds but I am not familar with the local weather there.

Then there was Sandy, but excluding Sandy

The most prolific wind gust event of my lifetime occurred on April 6, 1982.  Low bombed off AC and deepened to 960 just off the Maine coast in 12 hrs.  We had thunder snow and 10 to 12 in of snow. The upper trough kicked thru in the eve with  a super snow squall.  The winds then started to roar with widespread 60 mph gusts and blizzard conditions in blowing snow.  Drifts 6 to 10 ft.

sandy was bad here, also irene and isiais. Any other non tropical system the winds seem near imposdible to forecast. The wind direction you speak of does appear to verify more often then when coming off the ocean. Ive come to terms with that snd meerly take wind maps with a grain of salt. I think they are okay with showing max potential but all said and done rarely verify on a wide scale.

[jmanley32]

Jman, you have to admit you have been cashing in on some good wind events with the cutters and today!
Now, let's get an area wide Roidzilla Miller A with high winds and the much beloved "B" word warning!!

granted wind verification has bern okay just like the rest of you i really want a good dumping of snow.

[SENJsnowman]

GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

Man, that ‘smell the rain’ business is like a deal with the devil. I don’t know if I can handle another tucked low, warm nose, mix to rain event. I might even consider just rooting for a rain-free 1-3” and forego the opportunity for a bigger score. Ih-oh, now I think, I just crossed the line over into banter, so ima cut n paste right now and then head over there. Im just asking for trouble by tracking the next storm while watching a 34* rain wipe out my 12 hour snowpack, the first one in 2 years.

[essexcountypete]

I feel like the Roger the Shrubber of the snow weenie world...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-YYGiwdmbM

Pete the Snow Weenie:
Are you saying "subsidence" killed this storm for me?

King Frank:
Um, yes.

Pete:
Oh, what sad times are these when forecasters can say "subsidence" at will to fellow weather enthusiasts. There is a pestilence upon this land, nothing is sacred. Those who read models and make predictions are under considerable stress in this period in history.

King Frank:
Did you say you are a Winter Weather Weenie?

Pete:
Yes, winter weather is my trade. I am a weenie. My name is Pete the Snow Weenie. I live and die based on each model run.

King Frank:
Subsidence!

Pete:
NO!

King Frank:
SUBSIDENCE!

Pete:
ACK!

[SENJsnowman]

I’ve had much the same conversation with Viceroy HeeHaw, it went like this:

Viceroy HeeHaw:
The coast will taint with rain.

SENJ:
Again? I thought we were clean this time.

Viceroy HeeHaw:
You shall taint I say. It’s there in the h5 and in the 850.

SENJ:
But I hate when it taints. Say it ain’t so.

Viceroy HeeHaw:
It taint so.

SENJ:
Did you say ain’t or taint?

Viceroy HeeHaw:
Take your leave now.

SENJ:
Your excellency.



Pete, whatcha drinking? This rounds on me…

[sroc4]

GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

Man, that ‘smell the rain’ business is like a deal with the devil. I don’t know if I can handle another tucked low, warm nose, mix to rain event. I might even consider just rooting for a rain-free 1-3” and forego the opportunity for a bigger score. Ih-oh, now I think, I just crossed the line over into banter, so ima cut n paste right now and then head over there. Im just asking for trouble by tracking the next storm while watching a 34* rain wipe out my 12 hour snowpack, the first one in 2 years.

BTW This really isnt Banter snowman.  But if the CMC is correct even a LP inside the BM will snow down to the coast.  You have an arctic HP to the N and an already cold antecedent air mass.  The Low will have to pass over NYC to make a difference and I seriously doubt we even get close to that.  Just look at the temp profiles at 850 and 925.  With a cold HP to the N and the 850mb level closing off SE of LI cold air will not be the issue with this set up.  Its going to be whether or not we can consolidate upper and mid level energy close enough for the higher QPF to nose into the area.  If it consolidates it drags in the cold air.  If it doesnt it slides weakly S&E.  If anything guys like you and me stand the best chance at the moment given where we live.  

[SENJsnowman]

Well, I greatly appreciate the pick me up here SRoc! I think I’m ready to shake off the ill effects of the back end rain and pick my Pom Poms back up!

Let’s. Go. Snow!
From the Beach
To Mt. Pocono!

[jmanley32]

GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

Man, that ‘smell the rain’ business is like a deal with the devil. I don’t know if I can handle another tucked low, warm nose, mix to rain event. I might even consider just rooting for a rain-free 1-3” and forego the opportunity for a bigger score. Ih-oh, now I think, I just crossed the line over into banter, so ima cut n paste right now and then head over there. Im just asking for trouble by tracking the next storm while watching a 34* rain wipe out my 12 hour snowpack, the first one in 2 years.

BTW This really isnt Banter snowman.  But if the CMC is correct even a LP inside the BM will snow down to the coast.  You have an arctic HP to the N and an already cold antecedent air mass.  The Low will have to pass over NYC to make a difference and I seriously doubt we even get close to that.  Just look at the temp profiles at 850 and 925.  With a cold HP to the N and the 850mb level closing off SE of LI cold air will not be the issue with this set up.  Its going to be whether or not we can consolidate upper and mid level energy close enough for the higher QPF to nose into the area.  If it consolidates it drags in the cold air.  If it doesnt it slides weakly S&E.  If anything guys like you and me stand the best chance at the moment given where we live.  

Wow love seeing those upper level temps so far into the ocean, bodes well for coast as you stated. I could have done without the frz today, I had to do the shuffle to get lunch, it was really dangerous walking.

[essexcountypete]

I’ve had much the same conversation with Viceroy HeeHaw, it went like this:

Viceroy HeeHaw:
The coast will taint with rain.

SENJ:
Again? I thought we were clean this time.

Viceroy HeeHaw:
You shall taint I say. It’s there in the h5 and in the 850.

SENJ:
But I hate when it taints. Say it ain’t so.

Viceroy HeeHaw:
It taint so.

SENJ:
Did you say ain’t or taint?

Viceroy HeeHaw:
Take your leave now.

SENJ:
Your excellency.



Pete, whatcha drinking? This rounds on me…

My usual post-shoveling Cabernet with Advil. Cheers!

[rb924119]

For those wondering, yes, I’m fine, just have been super busy. I worked through Saturday, then Sunday I was busy running around doing various errands, and then Monday my Dad and I took a trip to Ontario to pick up my new log splitter from Eastonmade’s HQ in Perth. 5.5 hours there, about a half hour on site finalizing paperwork and getting the machine ready for towing, then 5.5 hours back. We hit two bands of lake effect snow between Adams, NY and the border, so that was pretty cool to see. But otherwise the trip was fine.

One thing that I wanted to say is that nobody should feel bad about the lack of snow, because until we got to Adams, nobody from here in NEPA all the way to Adams had any significant snow on the ground. It ranged from nothing to a couple inches, which was all fresh from the minor event the two days before. But then it turned into a solid foot, and probably even more than that real quick haha

Lastly, I’ve been trying to figure out what my thoughts are through the remainder of winter, because, quite honestly, it’s confusing the absolute bejesus outta me lol there’s so much going on atmospherically, and none of it wants to play nice…..at least for now. We have another strat warm event underway (which is great), the ENSO SST’s are prime (also great), but as I mentioned a while ago, the dreaded slowing and growing of the MJO pulse through the Maritime Continent is now becoming apparent (not good), and I think that will exert its influence. However, figuring out how our pattern is going to respond to all of this has been about as easy as picking a winning NCAA Basketball bracket lol I saw Frank’s post in the LR thread about a temporary reset, and I think I largely agree. Beyond that, I’m formulating my thoughts (which are different than the ones I previously and briefly mentioned a couple weeks ago), and I don’t think that it’s all bad news. I’ll try to post on that maybe tonight or within the next couple of days. I will say this, though, I don’t think we write February off like I suggested previously. In fact, February and March may make up for our snow woes IF we can get lucky, because yet again, I think we will have a generally favorable pattern progression. Whether or not we can get the individual pieces to come together properly, that remains to be seen.

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