June 2024 Observations and Discussion

dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

Hello!
Not offended..I should have cropped the comments..I was just looking at how warm the water is..hope all is well

Speaking of the tropics saw this today

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  





Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  

billg315 wrote:Current 10-day forecast High Temps for next week:
M 90
T 96
W 96
Th 98
F 99
Sa 93

It's getting hot in here . . .

billg315 wrote:We should have a gambling tab on this site: Under/Over for highest High Temp next week in NJ: 99.5. Place your bets! lol

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:We should have a gambling tab on this site: Under/Over for highest High Temp next week in NJ: 99.5. Place your bets! lol

This is actually a FANTASTIC over/under! Synoptically speaking, I think that this setup actually favors areas along and north/west of the Appalachian Chain, basically from the Central Plains, through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, central and northern New England and then the southern tier of eastern Canada for the more widespread and more significantly anomalous heat. However, the urban heat island effect is real, especially at literally the peak of insolation. So, I think that areas along the I-95 Corridor will surpass the threshold (taking the over), but I think it will generally be hotter to the north and west of our region on the whole.

I can elaborate on this further tonight, though, if you want me to, but alas, lovely work awaits lol

billg315 wrote:Current 10-day forecast High Temps for next week:
M 90
T 96
W 96
Th 98
F 99
Sa 93

It's getting hot in here . . .