Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

@Skins and Mugs - thanks!!

[Math23x7]

There is an outside shot of CPK hitting 90 early next week. But if it doesn't, could this, in the 146+ years of weather records there, be the first year with NO 90 degree day? If you look back at 2004, there were only two 90 degree days, one on June 9th where it hit 91 and one on August 28th where it hit 90. May 1996 had two 90 degree days but there was only ONE that summer. In 2000 there were six 90 degree days in May and early June but only one the rest of the year. And in 2009 and 2014, the highest temperature was 92. So it'll be interesting to see how it turns out

[algae888]

Frank great write-up and math you are incredible with the statistics. Frank also the Sun has been very quiet and is supposed to be in a very quiet phase for foreseeable future even years to come. this has led to a warming of the stratosphere especially at 70mb which leads to cooler temperatures down at the surface. it will be interesting to see how the Sun affects our weather this winter. but there is a good chance that we will see more blocking in the Atlantic if the Sun remains quiet. what are your thoughts on this?

[Frank_Wx]

There is an outside shot of CPK hitting 90 early next week.  But if it doesn't, could this, in the 146+ years of weather records there, be the first year with NO 90 degree day?  If you look back at 2004, there were only two 90 degree days, one on June 9th where it hit 91 and one on August 28th where it hit 90. May 1996 had two 90 degree days but there was only ONE that summer.  In 2000 there were six 90 degree days in May and early June but only one the rest of the year.  And in 2009 and 2014, the highest temperature was 92.  So it'll be interesting to see how it turns out

You know, its very possible we may not see a 90 degree day in CPK but it'll be hard to do. All it takes is one day of getting under a SW flow and we should hit it. The only way it doesn't happen is if the EPO stays negative the entire time and the trough in SE Canada doesn't budge. As long as there is a trough over the east, no 90s will come.

Frank great write-up and  math you are incredible with the statistics.  Frank also the Sun has been very quiet and is supposed to be in a very quiet phase  for foreseeable future even years to come. this has led to a warming of the stratosphere especially at 70mb which leads to cooler temperatures down at the surface. it will be interesting to see how the Sun affects our weather this winter. but there is a good chance that we will see more blocking in the Atlantic if the Sun remains quiet. what are your thoughts on this?

I have to read more into the correlation between the sun and the NAO. You can see back in the epic winters of 2009-2011, the sun was inactive and the NAO was extremely negative with a +ENSO. We know upcoming winter will feature a +ENSO, but will the sun be inative? Will be interesting to follow.

[amugs]

As part of my summer vacation educational initiative I am going to read two books, one called the sun earth ND moon and it's affects on our weather and the other climate change? Once I have read and digested the info I will have a fulls cake report to mi familia.

That se canadIan trough is a biatch that is keeping the 90 and heat south if the nyc area. Crazy but stone u pointed it out well.

[Frank_Wx]

Coastal storm this weekend?

That would suck mule balls.

[Frank_Wx]

No wonder why models are hinting at a coastal storm this weekend - huge ridge spike in the west



And if the long range GFS is right, the +PNA turns into an extreme -EPO/+PNA pattern by July 4th. East remains cool.

[Frank_Wx]

El Nino trying to become Un Hombre

[Math23x7]

Frank, I mentioned this on another forum, but generally speaking (not always but generally), the start date for schools revolves around the date of Labor Day.  And generally, the sooner it starts, the sooner it ends.  And every five to six years, Labor Day on a later date than the previous year.  This is the case this year since Labor Day is on September 7th while last year it was on the 1st.  So this means these schools get an extra week of summer vacation.  However, it doesnt help that for many years, these summers have been generally cool in the east, most recently in 2009.  Here are the nine most recent years in which this was the case:



Now, because schools starts late in September of these years, it ends late the following June.  Here are the five most recent of the nine years I posted and notice that they were all hot summers, most recently 2010.



Based on this data, I expect the summer of 2015 to be a cool summer but the summer of 2016 should be a HOT one.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, that is extremely interesting Mike. Fascinating to be honest. I wonder if those years have any other correlation with one another other than a delayed Labor Day?

[jmanley32]

Coastal storm looks to be from inland this is non-tropical correct? Yes it would stink since its my b-day weekend : ( Normally a storm wouldn't bother me but I was hoping for a fun weekend. Whats Thursday and Friday look like as I am going on a road trip not far just to eastern CT.

[Dunnzoo]

No thank you on the coastal this weekend, Grad party, Train concert at PNC Arts Center and Mets game on Sunday.... GO AWAY!

[Frank_Wx]

Coastal storm looks to be from inland this is non-tropical correct?  Yes it would stink since its my b-day weekend : (  Normally  a storm wouldn't bother me but I was hoping for a fun weekend.  Whats Thursday and Friday look like as I am going on a road trip not far just to eastern CT.

Thursday through Sunday looks fairly unsettled. The SE Ridge is pushing off the coast and a trough is moving in over the Great Lakes. We'll be stuck between the two, along the gradient, which is going to cause frequent storms to develop due to the unstable nature of the atmosphere. Obviously it will not rain every hour from Thurs-Sun, but in terms of overcast skies with periods of rain (heavy at times) that will hold true. Will update again tomorrow.

No thank you on the coastal this weekend, Grad party, Train concert at PNC Arts Center and Mets game on Sunday.... GO AWAY!

Ponchos!

[jmanley32]

Meh, not going to make plans for Rye Playland for Friday afternoon eve, if theres a chance of rain. I don't want to get caught in anything. 34 ain't no big deal anyways, I'll find some way to celebrate. So would you expect SPC to have us under tstorm parameters for those coming days too? Nothing in the 4-8 day yet.

[Frank_Wx]

Meh, not going to make plans for Rye Playland for Friday afternoon eve, if theres a chance of rain.  I don't want to get caught in anything.  34 ain't no big deal anyways, I'll find some way to celebrate.  So would you expect SPC to have us under  tstorm parameters for those coming days too? Nothing in the 4-8 day yet.

No, that's just a coastal storm with no severe weather expected. Temps may actually not get out of the 60's in some spots

[Frank_Wx]

I like this look of our SST's for next winter

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Meh, not going to make plans for Rye Playland for Friday afternoon eve, if theres a chance of rain.  I don't want to get caught in anything.  34 ain't no big deal anyways, I'll find some way to celebrate.  So would you expect SPC to have us under  tstorm parameters for those coming days too? Nothing in the 4-8 day yet.

No, that's just a coastal storm with no severe weather expected. Temps may actually not get out of the 60's in some spots

Never got out of the 60's here on Saturday. 68 was the high. I loved it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I like this look of our SST's for next winter      

Music to my ears.

Can't wait.

[skinsfan1177]

I got to be honest I'm loving this weather at the Jersey shore

[Frank_Wx]

Weekend Update:

Models backed off on the extreme rain amounts today and even pushed the timetable up a bit. We may be able to salvage a nice day Sunday. Friday to Saturday looks to be when the bulk of the rain falls. Right now I'm thinking a general 1-2 inches Friday into Saturday. There may be a break in the action Friday late morning through most of the day then start up again late Friday night and last through most of Saturday.

[Frank_Wx]

Worth noting that the GGEM still has rain all day Sunday so it's not set in stone yet. GFS is progressive with the coastal while the GGEM takes it inland up the coast and also slows it down.

[Dunnzoo]

Thanks Frank...I knew you had connections

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks Frank...I knew you had connections  

Some people at work think I control the weather.

Please, I would have had Frankzilla's lining up in the winter if this were true.

[skinsfan1177]

This is really bad news going to a outdoor wedding Saturday at 2pm in Barnegat nj

[Frank_Wx]

This is really bad news going to a outdoor wedding Saturday at 2pm in Barnegat nj

Maybe if everyone can agree to bring a white umbrella, it will not look so bad.

[skinsfan1177]

This is really bad news going to a outdoor wedding Saturday at 2pm in Barnegat nj

Maybe if everyone can agree to bring a white umbrella, it will not look so bad.

Haha I'm going in a poncho. Seriously though is it looking like a all day event Frank it's in southern ocean county about 40 minutes to my south

[skinsfan1177]

Can anyone give timing on Saturday rain and is it sat. Into Sunday or Friday into Saturday thank you

[Sponsored content]