Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/651069828740984832Things are looking great for us with the warm anomalies in the 3.4 region. Best forcing looks to be setting up by the dateline.

Nutley,

This is absolutely fantastic news - as I have and I know you have as well on here been harping since the summer or late summer how important for our dear winter it is for this area of the EPAC to be warm and it is a Vasin Wide event and it set up near the dateline - that is the trop forcing. If we can get region 4 to warm as much and I think it is then we will be in good shape for this upcoming winter. Hey, next year we are looking at La Nada/Nina so let's get it while and if we can. If it is a back loaded winter as we have seen in the past then fine no problem but if we can get a cold December like 2002-03 then we are in big business. QBO postive which is okay at this point tis from Isotherm :September 30mb QBO value has risen to +12.07, solidly westerly. Will be another factor to monitor for the ensuing winter. Very high likelihood that the QBO will average positive for DJFM.



This is where we are at :

[Frank_Wx]

1982-1983, a mod to strong El Nino year, the AMO was negative but the mean NAO for the ensuing winter was positive.



1972-1973, another Nino year, the AMO was also negative and the NAO was positive



Obviously these correlations are looked at as black and white, but the NAO/AMO correlation is difficult to understand during El Nino events

[sroc4]

AMO is currently positive and has been for some time now with the exception of Jan through April 2014. As you pointed out the NAO was mostly positive Between Jan through April.  Prior to that there was another transient neg AMO during the months of Nov/Dec/Jan 2011/2012.  The last time the AMO was neg for more than just a few months you have to go back to the early to mid 1990's.  

Here are the current and historical AMO values with Jan starting the column on the left
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

NAO values:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nao.data


Referencing an article written by Joe Daleo here are the general associations with AMO and NAO values...again as a whole, not for transient time frames.  Compared to the current Atlantic SST.

" />


As you can see the SST Anomalies match up with the 1965-1974 time frames.  As per the image above we have a mostly negative NAO throughout that time frame.  Within that time frame you have 1965-1966 and 1972-1973 both of which were strong El Ninos.  You also have 1963-1964 as well which was a moderate el Nino year.  

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Refernece the NAO link again notice that during the three El Nino years I listed above a neg NAO predominate throught the winter season. 72-73 had a neg NAO in Jan positive in Feb and neutral to neg in March and april.  The anomaly map Frank posted above does not match very well given the NAO therefore there were other factors at play.  The AMO was in the pprocess of flipping at that time as well.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nao.data

There is no doubt that the equation is multifactorial; however, there are some general inferences that can be made with regards to AMO and NAO and a general relationship between the two depending on the phase of the AMO.  Obviously my point in not to make a 1 to 1 relationship here and Of course other drivers play an integral part in the outcome of the overall equation as well.  My point is that there is some validity to stating that the set up in the Atlantic at this stage "might" lead to a sustained NAO this winter.

[billg315]

Sustained neg NAO?

[docstox12]

February 1983 snowstorm.....to this day,I have not seen a snowstorm with 6 straight hours of 3 inch per hour accumulation rates.WITHOUT any letups!!!

[Frank_Wx]

I'll be honest, the correlation is not strong enough for me to use it with conviction. Since the mid 90s we have been in a warm phase. As of today, the AMO remains in a warm phase. We've had memorable and impressive -NAO winters since the mid 90s. I probably need to take the time to research AMO more.

[Snow88]

GFS and ensembles keep showing a storm coming out of the gulf at the end of the run

[devsman]

Was going to bring up storm in gulf but seemed so far away that I didn't. But that's where Sandy came from and same time frame so definitely interesting. Does the Euro show anything?

[jmanley32]

Hey guys I posted this in Banter being its 384 hrs out, Yes I noted same place as sandy and yesterday one run had a direct hit on the area with strong winds and crazy precip, but its 348 hrs out maybe a bit less but it sure has been consistent. Unfortunently the rest of the models only go out to 240 hrs (why is that?) so we won't know until its within 240 hrs if they match, I did not something percolating at 240 hrs on Euro in the Yucatan area so that may be it.

[jmanley32]

Was going to bring up storm in gulf but seemed so far away that I didn't. But that's where Sandy came from and same time frame so definitely interesting. Does the Euro show anything?

Also to note climatology favors east coast runs with storms that come from there in October so may be something to watch down the road.

[amugs]

CA SST analog forecast DJF blownup USA:



This is somewhat unnerving at this point - east coast is spiking here peeps, un-comfortable . Do not know if it actually has a grip on the dateline warming in regions 4 and 3.4.

[rb924119]

In what respect, mugs?

[amugs]

In what respect, mugs?

that the warm waters where basin wide but congregated around the 1.2 region as the warmest waters - if I am reading this correctly, my first  time through this with nino so i am a Nino virgin hahahaha!!

Anyway, I can relax after reading this tweet - maybe I got ahead of myself with this above.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/651422220980494336

Take the train to the dateline yahooooooooooooo!!





All is good and the ship is righted - the map just caught me off guard I guess. Again my first time posting for nino's so I have some to learn.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm not sure what this basin wide Nino stuff is I know it's better for us for winter can so.done give an easy explanation?

[rb924119]

In what respect, mugs?

that the warm waters where basin wide but congregated around the 1.2 region as the warmest waters - if I am reading this correctly, my first  time through this with nino so i am a Nino virgin hahahaha!!

Anyway, I can relax after reading this tweet - maybe I got ahead of myself with this above.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/651422220980494336

Take the train to the dateline yahooooooooooooo!!





All is good and the ship is righted - the map just caught me off guard I guess. Again my first time posting for nino's so I have some to learn.

Oh haha I see. Don't forget, that map was of ANOMALIES, so yeah, it's totally reasonable that the darker colors are in region 1.2. Waters that are normally in the 40's and 50's are now in the 60's. The warmest waters are still well off to the west, but are slowly being advected eastward, which is why you're continuing to see the colors darken in 1.2; the anomalies are getting larger as the waters from the central and western Pacific are warming those off the South American coastline as they mix together. You'll know when the Nino is starting to wind down when the water temperatures are nearly uniform basin-wide, and actually start to "cool off" toward the western Pacific. Just like with the atmosphere, where water leaves it must be replaced, so it will start to upwell in the source region (western/west-central Pacific).

[rb924119]

And that plot from the tweet is staggering. Like...D@MN. lol

[rb924119]

MY GOD:

[amugs]

That map is a beautiful sight. This is how I envision our wunter, Aleutian liw, nice pna from the west into bc and Canada and trough east with a negative NAO block

[skinsfan1177]

What are we looking at for the big change and temp wise of course if it verifys.

[amugs]

From Isotherm:
Fairly robust burst of positive 850-Hpa U anomalies in the 180-140W region, indicative of the westerly wind burst. This will probably induce a further warming of regions 3.4/3 and even region 4 in the coming week. Recent CFSV2 runs continue to suggest that region 1.2 will be gradually declining over the next several weeks to levels eventually sub +2.0c. My guess is this may occur by early November.

Laymen terms - region 3.4 and 4 are warming up which is evident at eh Dateline (the international dateline which is at 180W on our space ship we call earth - think about that one!). East regions from this will be cooling. This is very good news for the upcoming winter.

Here i sthe bathtub of or should I say HOT TUB!!!!
A large area of convection is focusing right over those 30C SST's in the Nino 4 region !!!

[nutleyblizzard]

From Isotherm:
Fairly robust burst of positive 850-Hpa U anomalies in the 180-140W region, indicative of the westerly wind burst. This will probably induce a further warming of regions 3.4/3 and even region 4 in the coming week. Recent CFSV2 runs continue to suggest that region 1.2 will be gradually declining over the next several weeks to levels eventually sub +2.0c. My guess is this may occur by early November.

Laymen  terms - region 3.4 and 4 are warming up which is evident at eh Dateline (the international dateline which is at 180W on our space ship we call earth - think about that one!). East regions from this will be cooling. This is very good news for the upcoming winter.

Here i sthe bathtub of or should I say HOT TUB!!!!
A large area of convection is focusing right over those 30C SST's in the Nino 4 region !!!

That's very good to see. As long as the best forcing stays that far west, that in turn should keep the GOA low south of the Aleutians and then we'll be in great shape.

[algae888]

mugs the pna spike is going to be enhanced by hurricane oho which is east of Hawaii and headed towards Alaska. this will push record breaking heat into the n/w and upper mid west next week. will this hurricane have an impact on sst in the pacific off the west coast?

[amugs]

mugs the pna spike is going to be enhanced by hurricane oho which is east of Hawaii and headed towards Alaska. this will push record breaking heat into the n/w and upper mid west next week. will this hurricane have an impact on sst in the pacific off the west coast?

It could give an upwelling affect to that area butt hat may be a small area or a spec in the overall picture. There is WWB (Westerly Wind Burst) being recorded off the South American west coast that is showing a westward movement of the warmer waters from region 1.2 out towards 3 and 3.4. if this is the case then I believe this hurricane does not have much impact on the sst but for small period of time.

A WWB will help move the warm waters at he initial surface layers out along with its direction - westward. Think of it as the East and NE winds we experienced this weekend on our coast for an analogy.

[amugs]

Swiped this from one JB's boys :

Look at the westward hot tub, forcing setting up near the dateline, going as planned if not better - Am I making a meteorological point here or being an annoying Joe and kicking the dog with this?

[Grselig]

Mugs, when it comes sharing potential good winter weather you are not kicking a dead dog. You are giving a living dog a nice refreshing bowl of water and some tasty bacon.

[rb924119]

All hail?

[amugs]

Rb^^^^^ that is impressive - again give me this come Jan and Feb and I will........................

Anyway, now that it looks like we have the pattern what will happen to that ULL the GFS and EURO are showing coming out of the tropics region? Hope we can capture that in this pattern.

[Sponsored content]