Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:40 pm

This is gonna swing wide right

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:41 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is gonna swing wide right

I think so too....

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:41 pm

990s off NC at 78

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:42 pm

The NAM stalled the H5 low then may have drifted it south. DUMB MODEL IS GOOD FOR NOTHING.

BUT! The trough is more negative and heights are higher along the EC. So, it is a better run than 18z.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:42 pm

U all mean ots? It's the Nam at 84 hrs we are desperate lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:42 pm

Holy crap I need to buy more of this espresso. I feel great.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

Now its off Hatteras at 81, this track is.... off

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

Forget this not a model crap.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

WOW THE NAM WOULD BE A HUGE HIT. TROUGH WENT NEGATIVE AND LOW CRAWLING UP THE COAST

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I LIKE IT!!!!! lol May the models run fast and the drinks go down smooth!!

This is never a problem.

Anyway, love the look of the 00z SREFS. Great start to the evening.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:44 pm

Alright now its up in the Chesapeake alright that one threw me a curveball...

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:44 pm

Wow, got real worried there for a minute

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:45 pm

Still off to a good start for tonight's runs.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM stalled the H5 low then may have drifted it south. DUMB MODEL IS GOOD FOR NOTHING.

BUT! The trough is more negative and heights are higher along the EC. So, it is a better run than 18z.

Check the differences in the ridge; definitely more collapsed on 18z versus 00z. That's a positive. Should allow for a little more room to the north. Silver lining if there is one? lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:46 pm

I wish we could see the rest. NAM would have been a Godzilla. GREEN TRACK FROM MY UPDATE

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap I need to buy more of this espresso. I feel great.

Ever try Cafe Bustello? It's like straight caffeine ahahaha

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:47 pm

NAM looks like it would crush us.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I wish we could see the rest. NAM would have been a Godzilla. GREEN TRACK FROM MY UPDATE

If you extrapolate it out, the surface low would end up on top of DC/Baltimore in the next frame I think. Interesting to say the least.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:49 pm

That track makes no sense LR NAM pretty much toss, I do find thr inital trend of an earlier transfer in the NAMs better range a little concerning if that makes any sense.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:51 pm

Sroc if you're reading, watch the progression of the coastal surface low from 72-84 in relation to the 500 hPa heights/vorticity advection. Textbook example.