Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[amugs]

Models barking at the High Latitude West NAO Block. Looks like from the end of this week through middle of the month then we go back to warmth.

[Dunnzoo]

Models barking at the High Latitude West NAO Block. Looks like from the end of this week through middle of the month then we go back to warmth.

Just need a small window of cold with incoming precip... staying hopeful we're not done yet. Pretty hard after a day like the last few!

[Isotherm]

The Atlantic downstream synoptic set-up is excellent for 3/7 (and I don't use that word lightly). The GFS ensembles are much better than the operational at z500; strong -NAO/Greenland block w/ attendant 50/50 vortex near Newfoundland. The Pacific upstream is deamplified and zonal, so the Atlantic must pull all of the weight in this case. The ensembles seem to indicate a more robust 50/50 which results in a sfc reflection further south for 3/7. If the vortex lobe can adjust a bit further south, that period has a chance down to our latitude. The upstream zonal Pacific jet will attempt to destructively interfere, but the Atlantic is so good that it may not matter. We'll see.

[amugs]

The Atlantic downstream synoptic set-up is excellent for 3/7 (and I don't use that word lightly).[/u] The GFS ensembles are much better than the operational at z500; strong -NAO/Greenland block w/ attendant 50/50 vortex near Newfoundland. The Pacific upstream is deamplified and zonal, so the Atlantic must pull all of the weight in this case. The ensembles seem to indicate a more robust 50/50 which results in a sfc reflection further south for 3/7. If the vortex lobe can adjust a bit further south, that period has a chance down to our latitude. The upstream zonal Pacific jet will attempt to destructively interfere, but the Atlantic is so good that it may not matter. We'll see.

TOMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!! You read my post on the last page 2 back that they are BARKINg at this HL blocking yuo have been talking about.
Absolutely music to my weenie ears - the word for the Atlantic - EXCELLENT - peeps get ready for what could be a very fun ride to end this winter season!! Love the 3rd to kick us off with a clipper to the mid month range at this time. Models are coming aorund to the wintry end to this lackluster winter season.

[weatherwatchermom]

The Atlantic downstream synoptic set-up is excellent for 3/7 (and I don't use that word lightly). The GFS ensembles are much better than the operational at z500; strong -NAO/Greenland block w/ attendant 50/50 vortex near Newfoundland. The Pacific upstream is deamplified and zonal, so the Atlantic must pull all of the weight in this case. The ensembles seem to indicate a more robust 50/50 which results in a sfc reflection further south for 3/7. If the vortex lobe can adjust a bit further south, that period has a chance down to our latitude. The upstream zonal Pacific jet will attempt to destructively interfere, but the Atlantic is so good that it may not matter. We'll see.

[billg315]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get something good around the 7th to 12th. We have seen examples many times in the past of unusual late Feb./early March warmth before a mid-March winter storm. So common in fact that my mom always said we weren't done with winter until we got some snow around my birthday (which is mid-March). The models are definitely hinting at something that time frame and the setup looks good.

[billg315]

The 12Z GFS seems to really like the 12th (still too far off to get excited about), but still hinting at something possible around the 7th as well.

[rb924119]

I'm not putting much stock in it, but all I will say is the end of the 18z GFS Op run tonight would likely be BIBLICAL if extrapolated lol

[skinsfan1177]

Hearing mid march looked good for a coastal its just way out their.

[track17]

skins we will probably get a costal but remember the temps need to be right and that will be real tough for us at the coast.

[skinsfan1177]

skins we will probably get a costal but remember the temps need to be right and that will be real tough for us at the coast.

Right on not even thinking about temps over 2 weeks out a million things will change

[track17]

You gotta think about temps because honestly if it is warm it does not matter and we will be super late in the game for the coast then.

[skinsfan1177]

You gotta think about temps because honestly if it is warm it does not matter and we will be super late in the game for the coast then.

Track 3-4 years ago the month of march gave this area more snow than any other month. If memory serves me correctly it was close to 20 inches. So my point is I'm not giving up.

[jmanley32]

Long range looks like wintry weather is possible and trying b hopeful, looks like we may be dealing with another high wind event on the 2nd with the cutter, 850mb winds over area are 64kts, now do these mix down is the question? But ALL or nearly all models show the same winds.

[jmanley32]

You gotta think about temps because honestly if it is warm it does not matter and we will be super late in the game for the coast then.

Track 3-4 years ago the month of march gave this area more snow than any other month. If memory serves me correctly it was close to 20 inches. So my point is I'm not giving up.

I believe it was march 2014 or 2015 and yes here it was like 15-20 inches, many 2-4/4-8 inche events.

[track17]

But there is no way the temps will be where they need to be. Nothing has set up right for the coast temp wise this winter. The temps are not going to be right from what I have seen. Everyone says don't worry about the temps but that is what everyone said every storm and every storm it was too hot. This is not are year skins.

[skinsfan1177]

You gotta think about temps because honestly if it is warm it does not matter and we will be super late in the game for the coast then.

Track 3-4 years ago the month of march gave this area more snow than any other month. If memory serves me correctly it was close to 20 inches. So my point is I'm not giving up.

I believe it was march 2014 or 2015 and yes here it was like 15-20 inches, many 2-4/4-8 inche events.

Thanks jman for the years. I'm not giving up yet I have seen what march can do

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

You gotta think about temps because honestly if it is warm it does not matter and we will be super late in the game for the coast then.

Track 3-4 years ago the month of march gave this area more snow than any other month. If memory serves me correctly it was close to 20 inches. So my point is I'm not giving up.

I believe it was march 2014 or 2015 and yes here it was like 15-20 inches, many 2-4/4-8 inche events.

Good memory Jman it was 2015 and in NYC it did total almost 20 inches for the month.

Here are the March 2015 daily snowfall totals in Central Park.

March....1....2015....4.8
March....3....2015....1.8
March....5....2015....7.5
March..20....2015....4.5

[track17]

However I am in no way talking about nyc. I am talking about the jersey coast so not sure how nyc entered the discussion. I do think nyc has a shot for a lot more snow your temp profiles look much better

[Snow88]

Blocking on the way

[SENJsnowman]

You gotta think about temps because honestly if it is warm it does not matter and we will be super late in the game for the coast then.

Track 3-4 years ago the month of march gave this area more snow than any other month. If memory serves me correctly it was close to 20 inches. So my point is I'm not giving up.

I believe it was march 2014 or 2015 and yes here it was like 15-20 inches, many 2-4/4-8 inche events.

I remember it vividly. Thursday March 5, 2015 was the 'Purim Storm' and Friday March 20, 2015 was the '1st Day of Spring Storm'. Both brought about 4-5 inches of wet snow to coastal Ocean County.

My 6 year old (4 at the time) just mentioned these the other day as she tried to keep hope alive amidst the very real prospects of this being a 1 snowstorm winter.

[Frank_Wx]

We continue seeing wild swings with long range guidance. The most consistent feature is the -NAO. Looks like we'll definitely see a period of high latitude blocking over Greenland, however, other key signals such as the PNA/AO may not be in our favor. Still too much uncertainty, but if there will be another winter storm it would be in the March 5th-12th time frame.

[Snow88]

AO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

PNA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[sroc4]

Nice shift south on the GFS with the clipper. High ratios verbatim.

[emokid51783]

What should we be looking for in the models at this state?

[sroc4]

What should we be looking for in the models at this state?

Im off tomorrow.  If Frank or someone else doesn't beat me to it Ill try and do a write up regarding the clipper for Frid into Sat, which has more "potential" than a coating to an inch like the scroll says above.  2-4" to 3-6" max potential depedning on location. I stress potential because nothing is definite.  No snow at all is still quite possible.  I also will look at the 7-10th time frame as well which is quite interesting for a decent size event.  With the NAO region trending stronger dont be surprized to see the models start to trend towards a Miller B type set up.

[amugs]

GFS rules with northern stream system, EURO southern - snow is coming peeps.

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