Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

[mikeypizano]

Okay quickly - Skins hit the nail on teh head here - in all the excitement of what could be a Historic or at best a Biblical Blizzard -  the convective feedback issues with all teh latent heat from teh STJ is playing wonky games with teh models and their synoptics with qpf and snow amount maps. The Polar Jet piece is not phased into these LP runs YET and this could cause this to be worse, possible much worse well better for us snow weenies. IF we get a threesome (no Syo not your sex class even though every hs man dreams of one!) teh triple phase. then MOTHER OF LORD IN HEAVEN. If  the timing and phase of the PJ could tug or retrograde the storm back and capture it so to speak and stall it or make a loop back - possible yes - happening who knows. Throwing out some aspects of making this even better.

Winds Jman will be freaking the freak - Jersey shore showing 50&60knots and for up here 30/40/50knots for hours.

Beach erosion,coastal flooding moderate to possible major for the duration (20 hours plus) of such a storm

power outages as well

This is all if things fall into place folks - putting out a scenario that we have seen so far on model runs.

When teh SR/ meso models runs get within range Friday night and Saturday then we will see what is what - NAMS maybe leading the way again like last years blizzard.

Again just some thought here on teh set up and possibilities not gospel but these players are on teh table and more.................

I HATE POWER OUTAGES! I have a pellet stove, so no power, no heat, and it the stove is running when it cuts out, smoke backs up into the house.

[jmanley32]

These maps are always messed up for the coast

I sure as hell hope so, cuz these include tomorrow then I am basically getting a few inches at most, theres def something wrong there showing such a sharp cutoff and nothing for LI.

[sroc4]

Jet structure - are you kidding me ?? THIS IS TOTALLY UNREAL!

Another dual jet set up. Big time dynamics with that. Surface LP stuck between the R Rear of the N jet and the L front of the southern jet equals...

[Dunnzoo]

[jmanley32]

Joe Rao old news 12 weather man just showed run of 18z GFS on live facebook, oh boy!

[Joe Snow]

Jman..................

What's happening? Anything going on Weather wise, I have been working like a dog...... no time to check

[jmanley32]

Jman..................

What's happening? Anything going on Weather wise, I have been working like a dog...... no time to check

you're joking right? Just read back in the LR, and top scroll. See the two works roidzilla or dare we say frankzilla next tuesday, 3-6 tomorrow.

[jmanley32]

is anyone looking at the Nam..I know it only goes about about what 80 hours..?

the models are pretty much done for this system, as its upon us.  NAM is not in range for Tues yet

[billg315]

The winds during the Tuesday storm could be fierce. But look at the isobars behind the system. The winds Wednesday and Wednesday night behind the storm will be crazy too. On the positive side, the temperatures for this storm seem unusually cold for March so maybe it won't be quite as heavy-wet snow as we usually see with March storms. That may save some tree limbs and power lines.

[weatherwatchermom]

is anyone looking at the Nam..I know it only goes about about what 80 hours..?

the models are pretty much done for this system, as its upon us.  NAM is not in range for Tues yet

thank you...just so quiet...

[jmanley32]

Yep wow 925mb winds are 50-70kts sustained! And I see no reason why a lot of the wind wouldn't mix down, thats from the 18z GFS, of course things could change. Stronger obviously winds would border insane.

[jmanley32]

is anyone looking at the Nam..I know it only goes about about what 80 hours..?

the models are pretty much done for this system, as its upon us.  NAM is not in range for Tues yet

thank you...just so quiet...

gotta wait for GFS CMC and I think people are resting up for a long weekend

[devsman]

No matter what TWC calls the next storm, let's just call it FRANKZILLA! if we will it, it will come.

[billg315]

Yep wow 925mb winds are 50-70kts sustained! And I see no reason why a lot of the wind wouldn't mix down, thats from the 18z GFS, of course things could change. Stronger obviously winds would border insane.

The storm itself has that look of a winter tropical storm/hurricane (remember the Blizzard of 1888 was dubbed the Great White Hurricane by some and it occurred from March 11 – March 14, ironically enough) so sustained winds over 40 mph are certainly possible. I kind of don't want to think about that because two feet of snow is one thing -- 70 mph winds with two feet of snow is actually a bit frightening.

[jmanley32]

No matter what TWC calls the next storm, let's just call it FRANKZILLA! if we will it, it will come.

Field of Dreams LOL, but we have to build something then LOL

[jmanley32]

Yep wow 925mb winds are 50-70kts sustained! And I see no reason why a lot of the wind wouldn't mix down, thats from the 18z GFS, of course things could change. Stronger obviously winds would border insane.

The storm itself has that look of a winter tropical storm/hurricane (remember the Blizzard of 1888 was dubbed the Great White Hurricane by some and it occurred from March 11 – March 14, ironically enough) so sustained winds over 40 mph are certainly possible. I kind of don't want to think about that because two feet of snow is one thing -- 70 mph winds with two feet of snow is actually a bit frightening.

Oh man up LOL you know you wanna see a storm like that at least once! 1888, 1993 def not a coincidence same dates, history repeats itself.  This as progged right now would dump more snow on NYC that 1993 as i believe it was only a foot, it was the wind that really made headlines. Drifts oh man, I could prolly sled down from mu 2nd story window

[billg315]

Yep wow 925mb winds are 50-70kts sustained! And I see no reason why a lot of the wind wouldn't mix down, thats from the 18z GFS, of course things could change. Stronger obviously winds would border insane.

The storm itself has that look of a winter tropical storm/hurricane (remember the Blizzard of 1888 was dubbed the Great White Hurricane by some and it occurred from March 11 – March 14, ironically enough) so sustained winds over 40 mph are certainly possible. I kind of don't want to think about that because two feet of snow is one thing -- 70 mph winds with two feet of snow is actually a bit frightening.

Oh man up LOL you know you wanna see a storm like that at least once!

lol. oh its true. I do want to see it. I just don't want to lose my roof to a tree crashing through it. Luckily I just had the trees closest to my house pruned to take off all the dead branches and cut it back. Maybe my timing was good.

[weatherwatchermom]

is anyone looking at the Nam..I know it only goes about about what 80 hours..?

the models are pretty much done for this system, as its upon us.  NAM is not in range for Tues yet

thank you...just so quiet...

gotta wait for GFS CMC and I think people are resting up for a long weekend

see you at 10:30

[billg315]

It's funny that Frank created the new Long Range Thread this evening and its already at 7 full pages. If we don't get a separate thread for the Tuesday storm soon we may have to go to Long Range 15.0 by Saturday. lol

[jmanley32]

It's funny that Frank created the new Long Range Thread this evening and its already at 7 full pages. If we don't get a separate thread for the Tuesday storm soon we may have to go to Long Range 15.0 by Saturday. lol

Well I imagine with franks blog will be a thread, just a hunce, counting on 10pm Frank I gotta get some sleep tonight LOL

[roccuweather]

Wrongfully posted this on the 3/10 thread.

Tuesday's storm will be named Stella for what it's worth:

via GIPHY

[frank 638]

vene acua stella

[Frank_Wx]

Thread started for Tuesday's possible storm.

[nutleyblizzard]

Looks like the GFS wants to merge waves 2 and 3. (hour 90).

[jmanley32]

Looks like the GFS wants to merge waves 2 and 3. (hour 90).

theres a thread for the storm now.

[dkodgis]

All eyes turn to the Big Storm upon us.

But what about the long range? Any more snow possible?

[Frank_Wx]

All eyes turn to the Big Storm upon us.

But what about the long range?  Any more snow possible?  

Yes, the GFS has another 2-4 inches on Saturday.

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