BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

The GEFS are much more snowier than the OP. Huge red flag. I think the OP is wrong, big league.





Madonne!!!!!!!!!!

Fuji effect on the NAVGEM. Looks exactly like the EURO!!!

Aren't gfs totals a bit low for the fact thst it's mainly snow? Is tgat the feedback?

Gefs def higher totals. IndiVidal members anyone?

Incredible



Check last 2 posts on previous page for those who missed the GEFS

Wait is that 17.5 plus the mean!!!

My schedule this weekend in case anyone wonders why I am not posting:

Friday evening: Dinner at nonnas, bar with GF
Saturday: 9:00am-5pm in Morristown celebrating St. Patty's Day with people from work. 9pm-whenever with GF
Sunday: Blog, 1st call snow map before 12pm. Then church and nonnas. Will be home later for a chat around 9pm.

I am going to need some red bull.

That means there has be a lot of rods in there maybe some franks?

Frank_Wx wrote:My schedule this weekend in case anyone wonders why I am not posting:

Friday evening: Dinner at nonnas, bar with GF
Saturday: 9:00am-5pm in Morristown celebrating St. Patty's Day with people from work. 9pm-whenever with GF
Sunday: Blog, 1st call snow map before 12pm. Then church and nonnas. Will be home later for a chat around 9pm.

I am going to need some red bull.

and you lose an hour this weekend

Going to be in Morristown tomorrow during the day, too! Non-profit I work for is painting the shamrocks on the street and I'm the social media person so I need to document it. Enjoy - it's gonna be freezing!

The moisture feed into this storm is impressive. High PWAT values FTW!!!

Look how the EURO keeps the southern energy its own entity. It never truly phases with the northern vort. GFS phases these pieces together.

Aww man frank that sux do without u until later sunday! So no g2g I'm guessing.

Earthlight

In situations like this you have to consider forecast models components. The GFS i initialization scheme and rolling model code is the same as the GEFS on a downscaled resolution. So particularly in events like this one with phasing and intricate details that require certain sampling, you are going to see model suites handle things a certain way and latch on to their own ideas.



Tl;dr -- I wouldn't put too much stock into the GEFS.

Not what frank thinks I believe he said toss operational.

Look how confused the GEFS are.

So Frank, what would you say is the probability of NYC getting greater than:

6"
12"
18"
24"
30"
36"

I'll answer Mikey. I bet you I'm right there

100%
85%
50%
40%
25%
20%

syosnow94 wrote:I'll answer Mikey. I bet you I'm right there

100%
85%
50%
40%
25%
20%

I think frank feels close to 100% about 12 so I'd up the numbers after that a little.

So im.confused the gfs or the gefs are wrong. Frank said gefs looked incredible.

Paul Kocin just commented on AWE ( facebook weather page ) about the storm

"I'm as excited and nervous as anyone. Concerned about close coastal track but love the setup. Great setup. Looks big no matter what."

Math23x7 wrote:So Frank, what would you say is the probability of NYC getting greater than:

6"
12"
18"
24"
30"
36"

Dead on.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Just saw the snow map from the GFS, not disappointed anymore. I'll post the link here if anyone wants to click on it and take a peek.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031012/gfs_asnow_neus_22.png&key=f864d615b8ce27c9ae3709d7fec1c68c5b9262ed94648c1dddcc6531301b0bf4

CP, I really like that map ! Very nice.

Us LIers are not too excited about that map, however I know they always do funky things to our totals. They don't recognize LI as a land mass

syosnow94 wrote:Us LIers are not too excited about that map, however I know they always do funky things to our totals. They don't recognize LI as a land mass

Forget LI, I want a good storm for a change!

syosnow94 wrote:Us LIers are not too excited about that map, however I know they always do funky things to our totals. They don't recognize LI as a land mass

I don't think we will see the true totals of this beast till we have sr just the dynamics etc
I bet we go b surprised in next 24 to 48 hrs. Hoping anyways.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:So Frank, what would you say is the probability of NYC getting greater than:

6"
12"
18"
24"
30"
36"

Dead on.

Would 36 or above be considered Biblical?