BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
nutleyblizzard wrote:I also have that same fear too JMan. Most of us lived through that god awful heartbreak with March 2001 when models were in agreement inside 3 days for a historic event only to fail miserably. That event has taught me too temper my expectations with any snow threat. As each model run commences and we get closer to the event, the tension will rise. Today's 12z suite and more so tonights 00Z runs will be unbearable. In my opinion, if we are able to hold serve by Sunday's 12z suite, we will be good to go.jmanley32 wrote:do u really think with Franks level of excitement and confidence tgat tgat is a issue? This storm is coming no dpubt and I am nodding towars all or nearly all snow as are many mets.Grselig wrote:I keep on waiting for the shoe to fall and we get rain or nothing. But based on last nights Euro and NWS diso etc it seems like the laces are tightening. Amazing.
The Pacific energy will not be fully onshore until 00z and 06z Sunday. Same with the polar energy and the energy in the STJ. If we are going to see the late trends in the models its between now and 12z tomorrow. Eggs shells for sure. Its no longer a matter of if, but rather, how much.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
jmanley32 wrote:do u really think with Franks level of excitement and confidence that that all rsin or ots is sn issue? This storm is coming no doubt and I am nodding towards all or nearly all snow as are many mets.Grselig wrote:I keep on waiting for the shoe to fall and we get rain or nothing. But based on last nights Euro and NWS diso etc it seems like the laces are tightening. Amazing.
It defies logic but as others have said, we've all been burned in the past. We've been tracking this a week out and things sometimes disappear (AND COME BACK STRONG). A deal is never done till its done. I don't think I have ever seen Frank and other very very knowledgabe this confident about a storm at this stage in the game. Yes, its eggshells until it happens!!
Last edited by Grselig on Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:53 am; edited 1 time in total
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
nutleyblizzard wrote:I also have that same fear too JMan. Most of us lived through that god awful heartbreak with March 2001 when models were in agreement inside 3 days for a historic event only to fail miserably. That event has taught me too temper my expectations with any snow threat. As each model run commences and we get closer to the event, the tension will rise. Today's 12z suite and more so tonights 00Z runs will be unbearable. In my opinion, if we are able to hold serve by Sunday's 12z suite, we will be good to go.jmanley32 wrote:do u really think with Franks level of excitement and confidence tgat tgat is a issue? This storm is coming no dpubt and I am nodding towars all or nearly all snow as are many mets.Grselig wrote:I keep on waiting for the shoe to fall and we get rain or nothing. But based on last nights Euro and NWS diso etc it seems like the laces are tightening. Amazing.
Not to mention the heartbreak of Jan 2015 for many of us. For 3 days, it was a matter of how many feet. I'll never forget Nick Gregory's final call map. He had this large swath of pure white across the whole NYC metro area: 2-3 feet! And this was at 6 pm the night of! Alas, the storm kicked too far east and the snow bands got destroyed on the way back to the shore. Northern regions (esp. NE) did just fine, but most of our whole area got 6" of backend snow and nothing else.
The moral of the story: It's looking good and it may yet look even better, just don't count them chickens!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
The models seem too consistent for this to be a miss. But exact track is still crucial so give it another 24 hours. That said, if this thing misses us after all this (like March 2001 for instance), it will definitely be categorized as a Bustzilla.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Frank_Wx wrote:
OY VEY
This took me a few minutes to do from my phone.
![BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 20170311_080541](https://2img.net/h/i23.photobucket.com/albums/b360/CryAgonyxx/20170311_080541.png)
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Even accuwx app has already 5 to 11 inches with 40mph winds and often even though they are bullish not that 2 or more days away!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
jmanley32 wrote:Even accuwx app has already 5 to 11 inches with 40mph winds and often even though they are bullish not that 2 or more days away!
I fear the mad rush to Home Depot and the grocery store will begin today. I got my salt from BJ's yesterday!
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Gefs have corrected and gone to euro look. Also here is the euro mean a lot of left leaners![BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 Eps_sl10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f58/19/36/51/88/eps_sl10.png)
![BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 Eps_sl10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f58/19/36/51/88/eps_sl10.png)
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
SREFs are very nice. They lean just inside the BM. Man oh man this will be very close for the coast. Gotta smell the rain to see the heavy snow though. Whoever is just west of the r/s line will see Roidzilla amounts.
![BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 SREFSLPSpread09078.gif.0321af15ca40750253405692e47231f2](https://2img.net/h/www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_03/SREFSLPSpread09078.gif.0321af15ca40750253405692e47231f2.gif)
![BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 SREFSLPSpread09078.gif.0321af15ca40750253405692e47231f2](https://2img.net/h/www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_03/SREFSLPSpread09078.gif.0321af15ca40750253405692e47231f2.gif)
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Even AccuWeather has me for 6 to 10 inches of snow for Tues into wed .
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
I vote on naming this storm... Winter Storm... STUGOTS!
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Hmmm...starting to look like HIGH risk/HIGH reward for the Jersey Shore...
![Rolling Eyes](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif)
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
What a great way to wake up I don't know if I am dreaming or this for real what a great way to wake up I have been checking out maps and post from last night to early this morning to me this feels like christmas week I am very excited for this storm even the two is hyped up
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
mikeypizano wrote:I vote on naming this storm... Winter Storm... STUGOTS!
STUGOTS
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
You know, I'm almost wondering if this could just end up looking more like a juiced up front. Not saying it will, just saying that I can see how it could go to that, and not really ball up with a classic comma-head structure until it reaches northern New England.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Frank_Wx wrote:SREFs are very nice. They lean just inside the BM. Man oh man this will be very close for the coast. Gotta smell the rain to see the heavy snow though. Whoever is just west of the r/s line will see Roidzilla amounts.
Many people along the coast think it won't be much here I think they are wrong. Even with mixing issues don't you think its still a big hit?
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
rb924119 wrote:You know, I'm almost wondering if this could just end up looking more like a juiced up front. Not saying it will, just saying that I can see how it could go to that, and not really ball up with a classic comma-head structure until it reaches northern New England.
What differences are there in terms of sensible weather?
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
so the euro has moved more towards coastal hugger ehile gefs are a bit further offshore. Switcheroo or a median meetup?skinsfan1177 wrote:Gefs have corrected and gone to euro look. Also here is the euro mean a lot of left leaners
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
TheAresian wrote:rb924119 wrote:You know, I'm almost wondering if this could just end up looking more like a juiced up front. Not saying it will, just saying that I can see how it could go to that, and not really ball up with a classic comma-head structure until it reaches northern New England.
What differences are there in terms of sensible weather?
Shorter storm with lower totals, but a true "fast and furious" event. Chances of coastal mixing would also likely be increased.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
No I think euro is just inside benchmark GFS is coastal hugger but like frank I think mentioned the GEFS ensembles were east in other words GFS is in its own camp.jmanley32 wrote:so the euro has moved more towards coastal hugger ehile gefs are a bit further offshore. Switcheroo or a median meetup?skinsfan1177 wrote:Gefs have corrected and gone to euro look. Also here is the euro mean a lot of left leaners
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Wow upton has up to 6 to 8 just by 8am tues barely into the storm wowee. That's their potential for map less as I go east.
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
frank 638 wrote:Even AccuWeather has me for 6 to 10 inches of snow for Tues into wed .
WOW...I just checked Accu for my local forecast: 8-12"! I think I'd give up some of the higher end potential for some certainty as to all snow...
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Every map and site I've seen has a minimum 10" for here, except for AccuWeather which has a total of 3-6".
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Simply mesmerizing that now a single member of the 0z EPS has a SLP of > or equal to 1000mb within that mean! Going to be one of the strongest storms seen during this century thus far.
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Its early 8 to 12 is high at this juncture it will go up. Posdibly way up.SENJsnowman wrote:frank 638 wrote:Even AccuWeather has me for 6 to 10 inches of snow for Tues into wed .
WOW...I just checked Accu for my local forecast: 8-12"! I think I'd give up some of the higher end potential for some certainty as to all snow...
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
what was the lowest and where do u feel it will b at when it hits the area?Armando Salvadore wrote:Simply mesmerizing that now a single member of the 0z EPS has a SLP of > or equal to 1000mb within that mean! Going to be one of the strongest storms seen during this century thus far.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th
Wasn't sandy the lowest?
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