*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations

Alex, what is that pink bubble on your map?

Ereese wrote:Does anyone know where the low left the coast in relation to VA Beach? Hopefully east?? 
I'm surprised at the snow being so heavy this early. Really cranking up here in Freehold already. Coming down sideways.

Dude, it's still in North Carolina ahahahahaha

Morning all! 27* and snowing heavily. Got about an inch, going to measure hourly to verify snow rates...

Colder right now then forecast. 25 here in Dobbs ferry with around 2in

Gooood morning everyone! Or Good Evening? Lol. Anyway 28* and steady light to moderate snow here. Light breeze kicking up. I'd say about 2" just by looking at my deck railing, maybe 2.5". But while I'm crazy enough to be up now I ain't crazy enough to run around with a ruler at this hour for official measurements. Lol. Street is fully snow covered with just two tire tracks in the snow.

Ahh rb, wow thanks. Just saw on news 12 that Dave curren thinks the low developed west of where guidance suggested, is that accurate or am I watching a report from 6!hrs ago? Any thoughts on the track?

Looking at water vapor and radar imagery a few takeaways. Storm is definitely exploding in intensity and convection getting stronger; right now a very heavy band over MD is charging into Eastern PA and a heavy area over the Delmarva and Atlantic is advancing on South Jersey. I'd bet that gets to central NJ by 5:30-6:00 am and that is when the REALLY heavy stuff commences.

Heavy 2"/hr snow right now in BGM. Over an inch i'd say

Thanks bill. Love watching weather. How long do you think we stay snow in Monmouth county?

Great r/s line radar. This is CC (correlation coefficient), picks up on size of the precip. The Bright orange is the r/s line where sleet is, and south of that line is likely rain, north of it is snow

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

Ok just looked at radar, a wind flow map, and then current pressure readings. It appears surface Low is near Elizabeth City, NC at 29.43. That is SSW of Virginia Beach. So we won't know for another hour or so if it's going east or west of there, but it's probably going to be darn close.

All set here until the snow stops!

Philly just went over to sleet. Not goooooood.

R/S line

I saw an obs out of Philly of Frz Rain. But R/S line in NJ runs from Little Egg Harbor to Winslow to Sewell. Hasn't moved much north in the last hour. If the low gets off the coast and starts to deepen that line may stall for a bit and Philly could go back to snow.

Latest HRRR, which had Philly in sleet by now but dynamic cooking prevents it from coming north

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ma3compjs.html

eyeballing around 3 inches so far otg, snowing nicely.

Frank_Wx wrote:Latest HRRR, which had Philly in sleet by now but dynamic cooking prevents it from coming north

Hmm, but Philly isn't gonna get 17" snows. I wonder how much of this accumulation is sleet on that map...

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Areas affected...Northern portions of VA/MD...eastern PA...northern
NJ...southern NY into southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 140722Z - 141215Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly heavy snow will develop north/northeastward
through the early/mid morning hours. Snow rates in excess of 1-2
in/hr will become increasingly common, with some embedded higher
rates likely, especially toward sunrise and beyond across
eastern/south-central PA, northern NJ, and much of southern NY and
nearby CT/MA.

DISCUSSION...A gradual phasing of dual upstream shortwave troughs
will occur today while pronounced upward vertical motion spreads
generally northeastward across the region this morning in concert
with an increasingly coupled upper jet structure and a near-coastal
warm conveyor. Latest surface analysis features around a 1000 mb
surface low near the northeast NC coast as of 07Z (3AM EDT). To the
north, considerable pressure falls of 4-5 mb/2 hours are maximized
roughly along the I-95 corridor and immediate coast of the
mid-Atlantic/Northeast, which is observationally consistent with he
intense cyclogenesis expected over the next 6-12 hours (and beyond)
northward along the coast.

As cyclogenesis continues to occur, observations/short-term guidance
are suggestive that the surface wet-bulb zero line will continue to
slowly transition northward across parts of DE/NJ toward the NYC
metro. This is suggestive of a more transitional/mixed precipitation
type along the I-95 corridor. A longer duration of
heavy-snow-optimal profiles, attributable to increasing lift
coincident with a deep/saturated dendritic layer, are expected just
west/northwest of the I-95 corridor from northern parts of VA and MD
into south-central/eastern PA, northern NJ, much of southern NY, and
eventually nearby CT/MA through 12-15Z.

Lift/saturation aside, consistent with earlier 00Z observed
soundings from Washington-Dulles and Wallops Island VA, various
short-term forecast soundings suggest that very weak elevated
buoyancy will continue to exist along the coast as mid-level lapse
rates continue to steepen over the mid-Atlantic region. In the
presence of increasing mid-level frontogenetical forcing, this is
likely to contribute to increasingly organized/intense bands of snow
and enhanced snowfall rates through the mid-morning hours, including
some possibility for a few localized instances of thundersnow.

..Guyer.. 03/14/2017

Hows it coming down in northern westchester and into southern dutchess. I have no windows and need to go home in a couple hours.

Check out this gift of last few HRRR runs. Sleet line keeps trending south

What is the reason for the bubble of snow going south on the rain snow map?

3" now, heavy snow... 25.3°

R/S line racing north up the Atlantic. Hopefully it slows a bit

Nice frank! I'm on the border in Freehold, hoping it stays south of me!