Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

[frank 638]

Amugs stupid question is this good or bad for us .for us snow weenies

[sroc4]

Amugs stupid question is this good or bad for us .for us snow weenies

It could go either way depending on many factors. A mod La Nina typically wants to promote a Ridge in the SE( typically not good for snow esp along the coast in the NE). This east phase QBO we have started will likely influence our winter as well. Alot will depend on if high latitude blocking develops or not. Transiently vs sustained etc. Siberian snow cover this fall may influence high lat blocking as well.

[frank 638]

Thanks sroc when it comes to maps like esp la Nina and elnino I am not that good reading a map let's hope for a turnaround and a great winter

[sroc4]

Thanks sroc when it comes to maps like esp la Nina and elnino I am not that good reading a map let's hope for a turnaround and a great winter

From your finger tips to Gods ear my friend

[Frank_Wx]

I'll probably begin looking closer at what winter could look like in the coming weeks. My winter outlook is likely to be condensed with high level information as opposed to the detailed blogs I usually write. I'll have a preview of some sort out next month.

[frank 638]

i am looking forward frank thanks bud

[frank 638]

hopefully its a snowy one

[frank 638]

AccuWeather in the long range for Dec 13 has snow for our area of course this can change .I just cannot wait for winter to come already

[amugs]

OKAY time for this since fall is a week away

[frank 638]

Now That is a very good sign I love what I see

[jmanley32]

Well this is interesting and concerning I will find the noaa graphic later but the nws is consolidating all winter advisories into winter storm watches. No more wwa wsw blizzard watches or warnings frz watches advisories. Whatever winter hazard might happen it will not be anything other than a winter storm watch with a description. This is haphazard if u ask me of nws. Laymen do not read details they see on the  tv watch and bah on with the day yet the details say 60 inches of wind driven snow. Not sure why they would see this as a good idea but they must have a reason which I cannot see.  Why not just make all tropical system TS watches no hurricanes lol

[amugs]

East based nina is better than a west based nina along with an easterly qbo around 5 and low to non exitent solar.

[mikeypizano]

I will be getting a new snow blower next week if all goes as planned (its been ordered anyway) so better update your forecasts accordingly....

[algae888]

east based nina? plus pdo region warming...

[weatherwatchermom]

east based nina? plus pdo region warming...

are these good signs?

[algae888]

i am hearing that the pdo is currently negative, however when i look at ssta in the eastern pac is see a pos. pdo. can someone clarify?


also there is currently sign. warming taking place...



also i was reading an article which states that the pdo has more of an effect on atmospheric pattern when in the same phase as enso. ie -pdo with a nina or +pdo with a nino. this wasn't the case with the super nino of 2015 (+pdo as well) as we should have been colder and snowier in our area. if this article is correct we really need the pdo to be pos. this winter. any merit to this or thoughts?

[algae888]

all climate models are showing no signs of a -AO or -NAO this winter. not good news. come on can we get a break this year!!
when was the last time these two indicators were neg. for winter season. it is incredible that we have had above average snowfall the lats several years.

[algae888]

well the CFS does have a nice EPO ridge. this has worked in the past however who trusts the CFS.

[amugs]

east based nina? plus pdo region warming...

are these good signs?

We need a +PDO in conjunction with a N(N=negative) or easterly QBO and not to Negative like -2/3 to 8 along with a colder 1.2 ENSO Region than 3.4. We had a + QBO o westerly that along with teh super nino torched us. Last winter the QBO in conjunction with the ENSO region 1.2 which spiked very warm flooded the NE or east with warm pac air. Even so we still managed to get above normal snow fall:cheers:
So some signs are trending if you will in the right direction in the PAC from the looks of those SST maps Al posted.
Al love the post and I am sure Frank and Isotherm can chime in.
There are a good number of variables to come into play for our winters here and have been this way for millenniums.


Solar has been pretty active by this info but still way down if yuo compare this time to last year

August 2017 77.9 UP 25.0 UP 19.9 UP M1.1 1 0
July 2017 77.7 UP 18.8 UP 11.0 down M2.4 3 0
June 2017 74.8 UP 18.0 down 11.6 UP C8.0 0 0
May 2017 73.5 down 18.1 down 11.3 down 0 0

2016
August 2016 85.0 down 50.4 UP 30.4 UP M1.3 1 0
July 2016 85.9 UP 36.8 UP 19.5 UP M7.6 7 0
June 2016 81.9 down 19.9 down 12.5 down C6.5 0 0

Definitely La Nina but hopefully a weak one around the -.8 stage and east based

You can see the cold in the east tropical pacific propagating west


Look at the level on cold coming to the surface and how it move from east to west

[sroc4]

We will see where the PDO actually is Al for Sept but as of August is was neutral, (barely Pos).

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[amugs]

From tweeter

Latest POAMA guidance suggests that a colder than avg eastern winter is unlikely w/ a stronger than normal western Atlantic ridge favored...

We'll see.

Also, recurrvng hcanes tend to have more normal winters for the East Coast.

[algae888]

From tweeter

Latest POAMA guidance suggests that a colder than avg eastern winter is unlikely w/ a stronger than normal western Atlantic ridge favored...

We'll see.

Also, recurrvng hcanes tend to have more normal winters for the East Coast.

Mugs it's a no-brainer that temperatures will be above normal as they have been consistently above normal the last several years not just for winter months but throughout the year. We can deal with + 1 or + 2 I just don't want the furnace that we've been having the last two Winters like December of 2015. And for whatever reason I'm kind of enjoying the Winter's of the 2010s yes they are warmer but much stormier and snowfall has increased. Is this caused by a warmer overall climate that's Up For Debate. I personally think so and I'll take it any day. better than the 1970s with those below zero Lows and very little snow

[algae888]

this is not a nina att. pac still very warm. even if nina does develop will it be to late to affect winter esp early winter...

major warming taking place...


i think we can forget a moderate nina . weak maybe. we shall see.

[dkodgis]

http://www.propanebuzz.com/tag/weather-2/

the propane folks think it might be a stiff winter

[weatherwatchermom]

this is not a nina att. pac still very warm. even if nina does develop will it be to late to affect winter esp early winter...

major warming taking place...

What does this mean in layman terms....tia
i think we can forget a moderate nina . weak maybe. we shall see.

[algae888]

Joanne simply put the stronger the la nina the more likely we will be dealing with a stout s/ e ridge esp. If the pdo goes neg. A trough will set up out west and we most likely end up mild with storms cutting to our west. The pattern right now is la nina like even though we are not in la nina state. If you look at today' s models and ensembles you will see a pronounced s/e ridge that wants to keep reloading. This will keep us mild for the foreseeable future. We need a weak nina or better a la nada which will allow other factors to have a better chance  to influence our weather. Im sure others more knowledgable can chime in. Also the qbo came in rather strongly neg for september (-15 )and getting stronger. I believe we do not want it to strong.

[sroc4]

this is not a nina att. pac still very warm. even if nina does develop will it be to late to affect winter esp early winter...

major warming taking place...


i think we can forget a moderate nina . weak maybe. we shall see.

Al keep in mind there is a lot more than just the surface temps when evaluating if this Nina is coming or not.  The SOI has been screaming positive for about 10 days with at least another 3-5days of the same.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/


In addition the subsurface temps have been building.  With continued prominent easterly's as seen by the SOI these subsurface temps will cont to come up and propagate westward on the surface.  Weak or Mod Nina is looking more and more likely as we head further into the fall.  Notice between Sept 16th and the 21st we had a neg burst on the SOI.  And notice the dates the turn on the Nino region graphs turned towards positive.  About 7-10days post neg burst.  I can almost guarantee those tropical tidbit maps and graphs will be trending back towards negative and colder anomalies within the next week to ten days from now if not sooner.  

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