Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Math23x7 wrote:Janet, the 11AM advisory has Irma moving due west.  If it doesn't make a northward turn anytime soon, this will go down (for Florida) as one of the biggest busts in history.

DT?? He BUSTED YUUUGGEEE!!
She is turning North and will RI, she made landfall - she is going to go to CAT 4 and possibly CAT 5.

She's improving IMO. Subsidence increasing in the eye and the IE cloud tops are increasing in height.

JB
not a full landfall hollow out the eye caseIts a disruption and likely followed by an eruption as Irma re-intensfies

If Irma intensifies quicker and stronger than the models predict, it could pull her more to the right. Remember Hurricane Charlie? It intensified quicker and more than the models thought, Charlie made a right hook and smashed into the coast well south of Tampa.

My sister who is in Boca, just text me that there is a mandatory curfew starting at 3 PM,also said all the stores were closed.

...IRMA LINGERING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

North she goes

Frank_Wx wrote:North she goes

2:00 reading from NHC says she is moving WEST at 9mph. What do you see that they don't?

sroc4 wrote:Crazy video:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10211815999173532&id=1176352023&fref=gc&dti=625060274303169&hc_location=ufi

So can someone explain where the Ocean is. Figured it would be flooded

Technically speaking it has been going 290 degrees for a long time. Just see where it was 24 hrs ago. I would say it has been going WNW the whole time with wobbles to the West and wobbles to the north.

Well, if the 2 pm pressure was correct at 2PM and I am assuming the 3 PM pressure was from a plane since it was going into the storm per a previous report, that is 941 to 938. That is technically a rapid pressure drop. Winds always respond after the pressure drop occurs.

She is going back into beast mode N Wobbles and some west but more N - next 6-12 hours we wait and see - 87-90* waters and little to no shear = POWDERKEG!

Charlie is a great example of how RI can happen in a short span of time

Little to no shear and boiling water = KABOOM and RI cat 4 to border line 5 my call

Sh*t that puts landfall at my brother's as a cat 4

Scott hate to say this but she is crawling from SI (GOES) If she doesn't pick up in the next few hours with nothing and I mean nothing g to cap her ceiling JB call for a 5 will verify easily.
Hope everyone batting down the hatches is safe and will have little issues with their own personar safety and their love ones.

JB and Dr. Maue say we have a 20 -25 mb drop by the later morning/noon time frame and she ramps up toa CAT 5 as per the maps of no shear and boiling ocean waters and her crawl speed. Jess this i's not encouraging news.

18z hurricane models are towards the west coast of Florida but that doesn't mean that the east side is safe. This is going to be a dangerous storm for the whole state and who ever didn't evacuate is foolish.

Key West experimcing 54mph SW and gusts overy 65 mph with major tidal flooding g akready. Can post the tweeter video but the homes from this and cars will be woped out tomorrow sad to say.

I'm in Orlando Florida where we are only suppose to get 40-60 mph winds throughout the entire storm. Don't know how true that is but so far it's been good

Disney, if you haven't already checked it out, here is the link from the NWS giving details of the hurricane warning in effect for your area.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ045&warncounty=FLC095&firewxzone=FLZ045&local_place1=Orlando%20International%20Airport%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Warning&lat=28.4313&lon=-81.3084#.WbRmHNiQzcs

I read that update but I'm still confused how Orlando is projected to have winds that slow for the kind of hurricane that this is

Just my own personal thought, but I think once past the Keys, the main circulation of Irma doesn't touch land again until the Panhandle, just like it did with Cuba's mainland, because of the frictional gradient. If that's the case, the entire west coast of the sate gets the worst possible effects, and it will be a monster along the entire western edge of the peninsula, as well as several hours after landfall. Again, just my opinion, but there are several models that support this. We just have to wait and see.

rb924119 wrote:Just my own personal thought, but I think once past the Keys, the main circulation of Irma doesn't touch land again until the Panhandle, just like it did with Cuba's mainland, because of the frictional gradient. If that's the case, the entire west coast of the sate gets the worst possible effects, and it will be a monster along the entire western edge of the peninsula, as well as several hours after landfall. Again, just my opinion, but there are several models that support this. We just have to wait and see.

that would be aweful!!

Looking back to page 8 of this thread, hopefully nobody did what everybody was saying to do-ie.if you were on the east coast, or had family there, that they should evacuate and head west. I realize that that advice was given because of what the models were showing at the time, but as we all know things have changed quite a bit since then and if they did what was recommended, they would have actually put themselves in harms way. As the saying goes "hindsight is 20/20."