2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
rb924119 wrote:I really like a blend of the NAVGEM, EURO, CMC, AND UKMET right now, though I do believe we see a bit of a correction northwest with the operational, and a large correction northwest of the respective Ensembles. The Euro and GFS Ensembles, even the Operationals, are trying to drop way too much trough into southeastern Canada in my opinion, which is why they are largely out to sea still, though gradually correcting westward in time already. In this regard, I like the NAVGEM most followed by the CMC, though I still believe a further west adjustment will be probable in coming days as the temporal scale shortens and feedbacks with the Atlantic ridge are sensed/less trough is attempted to be dropped further southeast into southeastern Canada in response to a moderately strong persistent SOI base-state, progressive pattern and large-amplitude trough barreling into the western CONUS. **In my opinion**, NOTHING supports a trough breaking through the North American ridge to swing Jose out before landfalling, while A LOT of things support a westward adjustment. Have to see where modeling takes us. Btw, UKMET out to 144 looks a lot like the NAVGEM, though further west. However, it's at the fringe of its temporal range and is not being taken seriously at this time, even though I mentioned it in my blend above (I like where it looks to be going, but did not factor it in......yet). Be back this evening!
Well the 6z GFS would support your thinking in a westward adjustment. Has come way west since 18z yesterday
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
big increase in intensity on those maps too.Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS
0z GEFS
6z GEFS
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:big increase in intensity on those maps too.Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS
0z GEFS
6z GEFS
Yeah, definitely further west and stronger from the overnight runs. Still turns OTS, but doesn't need to come much further west at some of those strengths to cause some problems
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Won't take much of a shift to cause a full landfall. Lots chatter this could happen all over varioys discussion places. Nhc isn't swinging to left yet but did add slight nw turn in cone. Also they took intensity in consideration now showing hurricane going north. He was up to 80 mph last I checked a small uptick. But does anyone else find it odd they are not doing any recon data on Jose? I mean even if it isn't a threat which is appearing it more likely is they still usually do recon missions.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Rb,
Great spelled out post on Jose. Going to be an interesting few days upcoming.
Meanwhile we have a Lemon and Orange in the Atlantic.
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 DJrvOVUWAAU0Fon](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJrvOVUWAAU0Fon.jpg)
Great spelled out post on Jose. Going to be an interesting few days upcoming.
Meanwhile we have a Lemon and Orange in the Atlantic.
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 DJrvOVUWAAU0Fon](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJrvOVUWAAU0Fon.jpg)
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Many are writing Jose off and say fish storm
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Well nhc just shifted cone west and the coast is now included in windfield probability area slveit the smallest chance.. Maybe things will change over the coming days. Or maybe they are right and it will go ots. But rb makes a lot sense on his idea and u def can't ignore all the models leaning west. Cmc even made landfall if I remember correctly.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
rb great write up....if we get scenario 2 where Irma trough doesnt have enough strenght to take Jose ots....what does storm do? does it burn itself out if stalls off coast?
carbomb31- Posts : 4
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
12z is a tick more east 48hr
EnyapWeather- Posts : 57
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
EnyapWeather wrote:12z is a tick more east 48hr
It's actually SW of the last run at Hr 48.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Jeeze sub 945 mb on hi res flirting just offsgore. Go be a close call. Still misses to east part of cape gets clipped but he gets further north B4 treking ne.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Just off coast and strong...looks like it gets a little further north towards the cape before turning its compared to 6z
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Ok I was wrong there is now going to be recon to Jose tomorrow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Blob.thumb.png.c0dcf3024d1d24c08b6c19cf63f5dde5](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/blob.thumb.png.c0dcf3024d1d24c08b6c19cf63f5dde5.png)
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Blob.thumb.png.c0dcf3024d1d24c08b6c19cf63f5dde5](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/blob.thumb.png.c0dcf3024d1d24c08b6c19cf63f5dde5.png)
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Here comes Lee - LOL!!
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Gfs_z500a_us_44](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091412/gfs_z500a_us_44.png)
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Gfs_z500a_us_44](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091412/gfs_z500a_us_44.png)
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
OH NO WAY JOSE !!
Ukie has the hot hand with these tropical entities 5 days plus. Interseting run and set up it shows - almost to a T of what Rb explained.
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.thumb.gif.16273a1f3d3f068c1bad7620e7798917](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.thumb.gif.16273a1f3d3f068c1bad7620e7798917.gif)
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.3af14cdc42176e12453d4c8670f4c804](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.3af14cdc42176e12453d4c8670f4c804.gif)
Ukie has the hot hand with these tropical entities 5 days plus. Interseting run and set up it shows - almost to a T of what Rb explained.
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.thumb.gif.16273a1f3d3f068c1bad7620e7798917](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.thumb.gif.16273a1f3d3f068c1bad7620e7798917.gif)
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.3af14cdc42176e12453d4c8670f4c804](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.3af14cdc42176e12453d4c8670f4c804.gif)
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Image.thumb.gif.5cdaab82f44c4d6a7472244a18c51218](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/image.thumb.gif.5cdaab82f44c4d6a7472244a18c51218.gif)
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Image.thumb.gif.5cdaab82f44c4d6a7472244a18c51218](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/image.thumb.gif.5cdaab82f44c4d6a7472244a18c51218.gif)
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
The center!! What direction is it headed in? That's still close rnpugh if gfs intensify verifies to cause issues from VA to CT.amugs wrote:UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Looks like wind field would b huge. Prolly still cause ts winds well inlsnd. And that's bout as close as u can get without a landfall. Rb ftw so far!amugs wrote:NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
If you follow the UKIE and the Navgem that Mugsy posted especially. You can see that Jose is moving NNW and continues to a NJ or LI landfall.
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SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro east of 00z
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z
Dr NO strikes again!!
![Sad](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_sad.gif)
![Sad](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_sad.gif)
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
amugs wrote:sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z
Dr NO strikes again!!![]()
![]()
lets see what the ens do
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Lol Dr. Who? Model wobbles I think we have a decent handle on this by sun. I hope so cuz if it does show hit it looks like wed so would b 3 days.amugs wrote:sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z
Dr NO strikes again!!![]()
![]()
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Jeeze that was fast was just at 30% now both high. No rest for trackers. We keep up like this we gonna make it to Greek alphabet. Rival 2005.SoulSingMG wrote:![]()
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
lol soooo no clue...
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Img_6310](https://i.servimg.com/u/f11/18/65/37/45/img_6310.png)
![2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 11 Img_6310](https://i.servimg.com/u/f11/18/65/37/45/img_6310.png)
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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