Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[Sanchize06]

I really like a blend of the NAVGEM, EURO, CMC, AND UKMET right now, though I do believe we see a bit of a correction northwest with the operational, and a large correction northwest of the respective Ensembles. The Euro and GFS Ensembles, even the Operationals, are trying to drop way too much trough into southeastern Canada in my opinion, which is why they are largely out to sea still, though gradually correcting westward in time already. In this regard, I like the NAVGEM most followed by the CMC, though I still believe a further west adjustment will be probable in coming days as the temporal scale shortens and feedbacks with the Atlantic ridge are sensed/less trough is attempted to be dropped further southeast into southeastern Canada in response to a moderately strong persistent SOI base-state, progressive pattern and large-amplitude trough barreling into the western CONUS. **In my opinion**, NOTHING supports a trough breaking through the North American ridge to swing Jose out before landfalling, while A LOT of things support a westward adjustment. Have to see where modeling takes us. Btw, UKMET out to 144 looks a lot like the NAVGEM, though further west. However, it's at the fringe of its temporal range and is not being taken seriously at this time, even though I mentioned it in my blend above (I like where it looks to be going, but did not factor it in......yet). Be back this evening!

Well the 6z GFS would support your thinking in a westward adjustment. Has come way west since 18z yesterday

[jmanley32]

18z GEFS



0z GEFS



6z GEFS

big increase in intensity on those maps too.

[Sanchize06]

18z GEFS



0z GEFS



6z GEFS

big increase in intensity on those maps too.

Yeah, definitely further west and stronger from the overnight runs. Still turns OTS, but doesn't need to come much further west at some of those strengths to cause some problems

[jmanley32]

Won't take much of a shift to cause a full landfall. Lots chatter this could happen all over varioys discussion places. Nhc isn't swinging to left yet but did add slight nw turn in cone. Also they took intensity in consideration now showing hurricane going north. He was up to 80 mph last I checked a small uptick. But does anyone else find it odd they are not doing any recon data on Jose? I mean even if it isn't a threat which is appearing it more likely is they still usually do recon missions.

[amugs]

Rb,

Great spelled out post on Jose. Going to be an interesting few days upcoming.

Meanwhile we have a Lemon and Orange in the Atlantic.

[skinsfan1177]

Many are writing Jose off and say fish storm

[jmanley32]

Well nhc just shifted cone west and the coast is now included in windfield probability area slveit the smallest chance.. Maybe things will change over the coming days. Or maybe they are right and it will go ots. But rb makes a lot sense on his idea and u def can't ignore all the models leaning west. Cmc even made landfall if I remember correctly.

[carbomb31]

rb great write up....if we get scenario 2 where Irma trough doesnt have enough strenght to take Jose ots....what does storm do? does it burn itself out if stalls off coast?

[EnyapWeather]

12z is a tick more east 48hr

[SoulSingMG]

12z is a tick more east 48hr

It's actually SW of the last run at Hr 48.

[jmanley32]

Jeeze sub 945 mb on hi res flirting just offsgore. Go be a close call. Still misses to east part of cape gets clipped but he gets further north B4 treking ne.

[freezerburn]

Just off coast and strong...looks like it gets a little further north towards the cape before turning its compared to 6z

[jmanley32]

Ok I was wrong there is now going to be recon to Jose tomorrow.

[amugs]

UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!

[amugs]

Here comes Lee - LOL!!

[amugs]

OH NO WAY JOSE !!
Ukie has the hot hand with these tropical entities 5 days plus. Interseting run and set up it shows - almost to a T of what Rb explained.

[amugs]

NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding

[jmanley32]

UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!

The center!! What direction is it headed in? That's still close rnpugh if gfs intensify verifies to cause issues from VA to CT.

[jmanley32]

NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding

Looks like wind field would b huge. Prolly still cause ts winds well inlsnd. And that's bout as close as u can get without a landfall. Rb ftw so far!

[Guest]

If you follow the UKIE and the Navgem that Mugsy posted especially. You can see that Jose is moving NNW and continues to a NJ or LI landfall.

[SoulSingMG]

[sroc4]

Euro east of 00z

[amugs]

Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!!

[sroc4]

Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!!

lets see what the ens do

[jmanley32]

Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!!

Lol Dr. Who? Model wobbles I think we have a decent handle on this by sun. I hope so cuz if it does show hit it looks like wed so would b 3 days.

[jmanley32]

Jeeze that was fast was just at 30% now both high. No rest for trackers. We keep up like this we gonna make it to Greek alphabet. Rival 2005.

[SoulSingMG]

lol soooo no clue...

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