Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[rb924119]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

[Guest]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

You and the NWS have a weird relationship. You get excited and hype a time period they downplay it. Then when you throw in the towel they sound the alarms. Hysterical

Personally the fact that Frank and especially our own hype man aMugs, have been quiet is disconcerting. Meanwhile the NWS is feeling more confident than 24 hours ago. This whole thing is nuts. I need a few drinks.

[Dunnzoo]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

You and the NWS have a weird relationship.  You get excited and hype a time period they downplay it.  Then when you throw in the towel they sound the alarms.  Hysterical

Personally the fact that Frank and especially our own hype man aMugs,  have been quiet is disconcerting.  Meanwhile the NWS is feeling more confident than 24 hours ago.  This whole thing is nuts.  I need a few drinks.

People are away, and we won't know much more until probably Thursday night, so why worry about it now? Enjoy your time off if you are so lucky(like me!) and we'll see how many of us are on then!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

You and the NWS have a weird relationship.  You get excited and hype a time period they downplay it.  Then when you throw in the towel they sound the alarms.  Hysterical

Personally the fact that Frank and especially our own hype man aMugs,  have been quiet is disconcerting.  Meanwhile the NWS is feeling more confident than 24 hours ago.  This whole thing is nuts.  I need a few drinks.

People are away, and we won't know much more until probably Thursday night, so why worry about it now? Enjoy your time off if you are so lucky(like me!) and we'll see how many of us are on then!

Once the 40+ inch snow maps started several days ago for this event the writing was on the wall. Next.

[frank 638]

So I am guessing we are not going to have any snow for this weekend .this sucks because we have fresh cold air with no snow

[docstox12]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

You and the NWS have a weird relationship.  You get excited and hype a time period they downplay it.  Then when you throw in the towel they sound the alarms.  Hysterical

Personally the fact that Frank and especially our own hype man aMugs,  have been quiet is disconcerting.  Meanwhile the NWS is feeling more confident than 24 hours ago.  This whole thing is nuts.  I need a few drinks.

People are away, and we won't know much more until probably Thursday night, so why worry about it now? Enjoy your time off if you are so lucky(like me!) and we'll see how many of us are on then!

Once the 40+ inch snow maps started several days ago for this event the writing was on the wall. Next.

As a technical analyst who processes data to make trading decisions, those 40+ inch maps in our area CP are dead on accurate for the exact opposite to occur,LOL.I've seen that time and again .KOD worthy.NWS waffling as of this mornings forecast.Just goes back to that old chestnut "it's too cold to snow"! Let's see what we have tomorrow.I've been saying this all week, wait for Thursday!

[Frank_Wx]

This is a pretty ugly looking 500mb map if you are looking for a big storm. However, the pieces are there for a minor event. If anything materializes this weekend it will be a high ratio snowfall due to how cold it will be. Unfortunately, I don't see a phase happening so it will likely be a northern stream driven event. A strengthening clipper.

[Frank_Wx]

In the first week of January the western ridge spikes - which gives us another opportunity for a big storm - but it looks transient according to the EPS. I am not a fan of those.

[Frank_Wx]

It is possible after the 1st week of January we go through a "thaw" of some kind. The MJO is shown to go into phase 2. Composites of an MJO in phase 2 under La Nina conditions have a SE Ridge placed over the eastern U.S. while the trough stays west. Again, no guarantee this happens yet but if it does it will be after the first week of January.

[frank 638]

Frank do you know how much snow we will get this system for this weekend

[Frank_Wx]

Frank do you know how much snow we will get this system for this weekend

Too early to say. May not even snow.

[SoulSingMG]

Come on, Euro! Wouldn't take much of a shift west for us to be singing a different snowtune for this weekend...

[lglickman1]

the question is, is there any driver to push this further west?

[Frank_Wx]

the question is, is there any driver to push this further west?

I do not see a mechanism that will lead to an earlier phase, which would push this west. The Atlantic Ridge is also placed far east so I don't think that will be much help to us either. Essentially we need the northern energy to deepen at the right location off the coast so at the surface a low pressure can give us snow.

[amugs]

It is possible after the 1st week of January we go through a "thaw" of some kind. The MJO is shown to go into phase 2. Composites of an MJO in phase 2 under La Nina conditions have a SE Ridge placed over the eastern U.S. while the trough stays west. Again, no guarantee this happens yet but if it does it will be after the first week of January.

True but GEFS show it dying inphase 2 - doesnt neciisarily mean warmth





And we have indication that the EPO will be reloading - to what extent remains to be seen but if we have PAC wave breaks buckling the jet and a flare up of convection in the Phase 1/2 regions as JB showed in his video yesterday this may get muted. Remember the low level dense arctic air that is going to blanket the NA continent doesn't go away so fast as it did in the Nino winters of 15-16,16-17. With sown cover that should be down even in teh few inches department by the end of teh first week of Jan will help as well.

Nina states

[crippo84]

NAM should just about be in range for Saturday no? Anything interesting (or not interesting) with this run?

[Frank_Wx]

NAM should just about be in range for Saturday no?  Anything interesting (or not interesting) with this run?

Yes





Amounts to about 1-2 inches of snow.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS does not have anything for Saturday

[MattyICE]

CMC is holding on to the bigger storm idea for NEXT week. That’s the only legit threat for all of us.

[Frank_Wx]

The Canadian model shows a Roidzilla on January 4th, while the GFS is just off-shore. The GFS loses the Pacific ridge. This ridge will be key to the entire set-up. The 4th is just a week away. Hopefully the Ensembles keep showing a signal. As we approach the 1st we would want operational support. This is the time frame rb alluded to. We'll see!!

[SoulSingMG]

Read. (courtesy: @crankywxguy)

http://www.stormhamster.com/e122717.htm

[weatherwatchermom]

Read. (courtesy: @crankywxguy)

http://www.stormhamster.com/e122717.htm

Tx for posting

[SnowForest]

From what I could see on the CMC run, the Jan 4 storm was too far North and West for the coast and South Jersey to get a lot of snow. Do you think this is more likely than not to trend South and East, like the 30-31st storm did? And would that be better for the coast vs the current CMC run?

[Frank_Wx]

From what I could see on the CMC run, the Jan 4 storm was too far North and West for the coast and South Jersey to get a lot of snow. Do you think this is more likely than not to trend South and East, like the 30-31st storm did? And would that be better for the coast vs the current CMC run?

The exact track of the low is not something I am paying much attention to. The possibility exists there may not be a storm. First let's make certain a storm will impact the area then we can discuss specifics such as who sees snow and how much. In terms of trends, it can go either way. It will track S&E or out to sea if the ridge on the west coast does not hold together.

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO looks like the NAM for Saturday. A coating to an inch or 2.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO is coming out now for the storm on January 4th. Let's see what it shows, but with the look of this massive PNA ridge, I expect it to show a storm.

[Frank_Wx]

Euro shows the storm but off the coast. Looks like GFS. I am glad the storm is showing up. Plenty of time for it to trend west.

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