Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
+29
Dunnzoo
mmanisca
sabamfa
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
Scullybutcher
SENJsnowman
RJB8525
Sanchize06
Math23x7
algae888
aiannone
jake732
crippo84
MattyICE
Radz
weatherwatchermom
hyde345
rb924119
frank 638
skinsfan1177
Snow88
sroc4
track17
amugs
nutleyblizzard
Wheezer
mikeypizano
Frank_Wx
33 posters
Page 1 of 15
Page 1 of 15 • 1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 15
Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Good Morning -
Yesterday was the official start of Meteorological Winter and Mother Nature is wasting no time in trying to make it feel like winter. In the long range thread, myself and others made it clear December 6th, after the passage of an arctic front, will be the transition day to a pattern change to colder than normal weather conditions.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Gfs_z500_vort_us_13](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120212/gfs_z500_vort_us_13.png)
Here is the 500mb vorticity map valid 7am Tuesday December 5th. The deep oranges in northern Wisconsin and Michigan came from the Pacific and is about to phase with the Polar Vortex. A very strong blizzard will impact south-central Canada as a result. This potent Low Pressure will track east across Canada and along the thermal boundary will be an arctic front. This front is expected to sweep through our area late Tuesday or early Wednesday bringing rain, but do not be surprised to see rain change to snow in some locations, possibly even the NYC area.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png)
Here is a better view of this set-up. Notice the 975mb low in Canada and the front draping along the east coast of the U.S.
Cold air is expected to settle in behind this front. High temperatures beginning on Wednesday may not get out of the 30's. Most likely, High's in the upper 30's to low 40's through next weekend and into the week of the 10th. There will be days mixed in where we will not get out of the 20's!
Because we'll have this cold air around, the threat of a snowstorm exists for December 8th-9th time frame.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Pic_1](https://2img.net/h/s7.postimg.cc/quyzuxf57/pic_1.png)
As is the case with any snowstorm, there is southern and northern energy and we need the 2 to phase for an organized low pressure system to develop. Here is the 500mb vort map from the 12z GFS. Notice the southern energy tries to escape the northern energy. I circled the two for you in lime green. And because the northern energy is SO strong (darker/deeper the orange the more potent the upper energy), it slows down the evolution of the phase and even tries to make heights rise along the east coast. I mean, the Polar Vortex is basically over the Great Lakes and that is not very common. The reason why we're seeing such a strong northern branch is because of the anomalous Pacific blocking. The PNA/EPO is expected to get so negative that it displaces polar cold from the North Pole / Arctic region into the central and eastern U.S. It is an over-powering situation.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Pic_2](https://2img.net/h/s7.postimg.cc/dqtfi8ut7/pic_2.png)
What is kinda neat is that if we miss the phase on December 8th, there is still an opportunity for someone to receive lots of snow on December 9th from an Inverted Trough. Because we have Pacific AND Atlantic blocking (west and east most green lines) the trough that drops into the eastern U.S. has no choice but to go on a negative tilt. Look how the cold air source connect, or comes directly from the Arctic region. This is major cold we're talking about. The problem with IVT is they are difficult to pinpoint. Most likely, this situation will not get resolved until the end of next week.
So, hope for the phase on December 8th so everyone cashes in on some snow. If not, we'll have to see what happens with the IVT on December 9th.
Luckily, there are more storm threats even beyond this time frame which we'll keep talking about in the Long Range thread.
Have a nice weekend![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
-Frank
Yesterday was the official start of Meteorological Winter and Mother Nature is wasting no time in trying to make it feel like winter. In the long range thread, myself and others made it clear December 6th, after the passage of an arctic front, will be the transition day to a pattern change to colder than normal weather conditions.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Gfs_z500_vort_us_13](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120212/gfs_z500_vort_us_13.png)
Here is the 500mb vorticity map valid 7am Tuesday December 5th. The deep oranges in northern Wisconsin and Michigan came from the Pacific and is about to phase with the Polar Vortex. A very strong blizzard will impact south-central Canada as a result. This potent Low Pressure will track east across Canada and along the thermal boundary will be an arctic front. This front is expected to sweep through our area late Tuesday or early Wednesday bringing rain, but do not be surprised to see rain change to snow in some locations, possibly even the NYC area.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png)
Here is a better view of this set-up. Notice the 975mb low in Canada and the front draping along the east coast of the U.S.
Cold air is expected to settle in behind this front. High temperatures beginning on Wednesday may not get out of the 30's. Most likely, High's in the upper 30's to low 40's through next weekend and into the week of the 10th. There will be days mixed in where we will not get out of the 20's!
Because we'll have this cold air around, the threat of a snowstorm exists for December 8th-9th time frame.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Pic_1](https://2img.net/h/s7.postimg.cc/quyzuxf57/pic_1.png)
As is the case with any snowstorm, there is southern and northern energy and we need the 2 to phase for an organized low pressure system to develop. Here is the 500mb vort map from the 12z GFS. Notice the southern energy tries to escape the northern energy. I circled the two for you in lime green. And because the northern energy is SO strong (darker/deeper the orange the more potent the upper energy), it slows down the evolution of the phase and even tries to make heights rise along the east coast. I mean, the Polar Vortex is basically over the Great Lakes and that is not very common. The reason why we're seeing such a strong northern branch is because of the anomalous Pacific blocking. The PNA/EPO is expected to get so negative that it displaces polar cold from the North Pole / Arctic region into the central and eastern U.S. It is an over-powering situation.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Pic_2](https://2img.net/h/s7.postimg.cc/dqtfi8ut7/pic_2.png)
What is kinda neat is that if we miss the phase on December 8th, there is still an opportunity for someone to receive lots of snow on December 9th from an Inverted Trough. Because we have Pacific AND Atlantic blocking (west and east most green lines) the trough that drops into the eastern U.S. has no choice but to go on a negative tilt. Look how the cold air source connect, or comes directly from the Arctic region. This is major cold we're talking about. The problem with IVT is they are difficult to pinpoint. Most likely, this situation will not get resolved until the end of next week.
So, hope for the phase on December 8th so everyone cashes in on some snow. If not, we'll have to see what happens with the IVT on December 9th.
Luckily, there are more storm threats even beyond this time frame which we'll keep talking about in the Long Range thread.
Have a nice weekend
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
-Frank
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Hopefully this will be a good winter!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Frank_Wx wrote:Good Morning -
Yesterday was the official start of Meteorological Winter and Mother Nature is wasting no time in trying to make it feel like winter. In the long range thread, myself and others made it clear December 6th, after the passage of an arctic front, will be the transition day to a pattern change to colder than normal weather conditions.
Here is the 500mb vorticity map valid 7am Tuesday December 5th. The deep oranges in northern Wisconsin and Michigan came from the Pacific and is about to phase with the Polar Vortex. A very strong blizzard will impact south-central Canada as a result. This potent Low Pressure will track east across Canada and along the thermal boundary will be an arctic front. This front is expected to sweep through our area late Tuesday or early Wednesday bringing rain, but do not be surprised to see rain change to snow in some locations, possibly even the NYC area.
Here is a better view of this set-up. Notice the 975mb low in Canada and the front draping along the east coast of the U.S.
Cold air is expected to settle in behind this front. High temperatures beginning on Wednesday may not get out of the 30's. Most likely, High's in the upper 30's to low 40's through next weekend and into the week of the 10th. There will be days mixed in where we will not get out of the 20's!
Because we'll have this cold air around, the threat of a snowstorm exists for December 8th-9th time frame.
As is the case with any snowstorm, there is southern and northern energy and we need the 2 to phase for an organized low pressure system to develop. Here is the 500mb vort map from the 12z GFS. Notice the southern energy tries to escape the northern energy. I circled the two for you in lime green. And because the northern energy is SO strong (darker/deeper the orange the more potent the upper energy), it slows down the evolution of the phase and even tries to make heights rise along the east coast. I mean, the Polar Vortex is basically over the Great Lakes and that is not very common. The reason why we're seeing such a strong northern branch is because of the anomalous Pacific blocking. The PNA/EPO is expected to get so negative that it displaces polar cold from the North Pole / Arctic region into the central and eastern U.S. It is an over-powering situation.
What is kinda neat is that if we miss the phase on December 8th, there is still an opportunity for someone to receive lots of snow on December 9th from an Inverted Trough. Because we have Pacific AND Atlantic blocking (west and east most green lines) the trough that drops into the eastern U.S. has no choice but to go on a negative tilt. Look how the cold air source connect, or comes directly from the Arctic region. This is major cold we're talking about. The problem with IVT is they are difficult to pinpoint. Most likely, this situation will not get resolved until the end of next week.
So, hope for the phase on December 8th so everyone cashes in on some snow. If not, we'll have to see what happens with the IVT on December 9th.
Luckily, there are more storm threats even beyond this time frame which we'll keep talking about in the Long Range thread.
Have a nice weekend
-Frank
Thank you for in depth comments, so helpful for those that are still learning.
Wheezer- Posts : 30
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-08
Location : Cincinnati, Oh
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
You are welcome!
The 12z EURO today gives us snow from the coastal storm and the inverted trough.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th 5a22f1ae159c8.thumb.png.251ed023c859a7aae9db829ecfcc1d31](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_12/5a22f1ae159c8.thumb.png.251ed023c859a7aae9db829ecfcc1d31.png)
Total snow amounts by Sunday morning
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Image.thumb.png.a39d313edffa4d976a2c65fae1780dd7](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_12/image.thumb.png.a39d313edffa4d976a2c65fae1780dd7.png)
The 12z EURO today gives us snow from the coastal storm and the inverted trough.
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th 5a22f1ae159c8.thumb.png.251ed023c859a7aae9db829ecfcc1d31](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_12/5a22f1ae159c8.thumb.png.251ed023c859a7aae9db829ecfcc1d31.png)
Total snow amounts by Sunday morning
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Image.thumb.png.a39d313edffa4d976a2c65fae1780dd7](https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_12/image.thumb.png.a39d313edffa4d976a2c65fae1780dd7.png)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Not much for me on that run...
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Just glanced at the 6z GFS. It shows a 994mb snowstorm coming up the coast. The overnight EPS run is trending towards a strong coastal also.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1957
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
0z wasn’t pretty but the 06z has a good storm!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Peeps,
As I stated in the LR thread the models will.come around to the pattern. Just have somw patience.
We have a the PV dropping into the Western Grear lakes and a LP that will round it's base and sharpen once it gets towads the coast. Lift will occur westward due tobtjis. It will snow!!! How much is anyone's guess at the juncture but the jets treat and RH maps support snow for a vast majority of our area next weekend.
As I stated in the LR thread the models will.come around to the pattern. Just have somw patience.
We have a the PV dropping into the Western Grear lakes and a LP that will round it's base and sharpen once it gets towads the coast. Lift will occur westward due tobtjis. It will snow!!! How much is anyone's guess at the juncture but the jets treat and RH maps support snow for a vast majority of our area next weekend.
_________________
MugsÂ
AKA:King:Â Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
06z gfs
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png)
![Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Frank would a shift east give the coast a shot of snow making it colder or is this not that type of storm
track17- Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Best shot for snow for our area is likely going to be compliments of a Norlun trough. Aka inverted trough. Pattern just seems too progressive off the east coast for the first system esp. to actually come up the coast. Â Of course there is still time for things to change but we are now in the 5-7 day range and there have been trends. Let me be clear; however, in no way am I completely off the idea of a coastal but I I were forced to bet today my money is against a wide spread event and more on a localized event like an IVT. Â There still is an aweful lot of energy swirling around on the models; the timing of which is key. But pattern dictates timing has to be perfect for true coastal to develop in the 5-7day. Â This statement does not apply to next week Monday and beyond.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9" Â Â Â
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"Â
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
sroc, how much are we betting?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
18z GFS is closer to the coast with the coastal than 12z
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
That would be bad for many in the area correct because the energy be closer would make the coast even warmer. Correct me if I am wrong
track17- Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Oh boy I may see a full inch!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
mikeypizano wrote:Oh boy I may see a full inch!
It's only December
![Rolling Eyes](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif)
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Snow88 wrote:mikeypizano wrote:Oh boy I may see a full inch!
It's only December![]()
So? Whats your point?
![Laughing](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_lol.gif)
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
I know it's only 1 inch of snow but I am happy with that because after having two lousy December's with record highs. At least this December we are having a big turnaround with colder and stormy conditions I am hoping we will see more snow especially when we get into Christmas weak
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2848
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
frank 638 wrote:I know it's only 1 inch of snow but I am happy with that because after having two lousy December's with record highs. At least this December we are having a big turnaround with colder and stormy conditions I am hoping we will see more snow especially when we get into Christmas weak
Give me at least 2 inches and I will be happy. I still make some off an inch though.
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
mikeypizano wrote:Snow88 wrote:mikeypizano wrote:Oh boy I may see a full inch!
It's only December![]()
So? Whats your point?![]()
We dont get a lot of snow here in December
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Snow88 wrote:mikeypizano wrote:Snow88 wrote:mikeypizano wrote:Oh boy I may see a full inch!
It's only December![]()
So? Whats your point?![]()
We dont get a lot of snow here in December
Dream big or go home right?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Here come the EURO Ensembles for late week/this weekend......slow but steady, and I'm fine with that ![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6995
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
rb924119 wrote:Here come the EURO Ensembles for late week/this weekend......slow but steady, and I'm fine with that
I'm not sure what you're seeing but it looks like it's too far east for most of us.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
hyde345 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Here come the EURO Ensembles for late week/this weekend......slow but steady, and I'm fine with that
I'm not sure what you're seeing but it looks like it's too far east for most of us.
The EURO Ensembles had a lot of members clustered near the BM. It gave I-95 and points east a couple inches of snow. We're inside 120 hours as of today, so model runs will become prudent. We'll see what happens
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 1 of 15 • 1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 15
Page 1 of 15
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|