January 16th-17th Snow Event

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I realize I'm under a WSW but this storm is starting to bore me.

I'm expecting an under performer, but hoping I'm wrong of course.

It's snowing moderately here with 2 inches OTG. Just shoveled driveway so don't have to do it all tomorrow with no wind to worry about.

Just watched a live video from Joe Cioffi. He mentioned watching the wind barbs closely on the coast. the warm air will be in a very shallow layer driven by sfc winds. IF winds stay more N to NE, then the coast will see falling temps near freezing. If we switch to E to SE winds we will see warming temps. I am noticing that fluctuation at my house right now as the wind direction fluctuates ever so slightly.

Alex even if we are cold enough for snow which is still debatable, where’s the precip? The radar looks awful. The coastal is keeping all precip offshore so far.

syosnow94 wrote:Alex even if we are cold enough for snow which is still debatable, where’s the precip?  The radar looks awful.  The coastal is keeping all precip offshore so far.

In time the precip will come together. The weak low is preventing the front from moving east. As the low strengthens and finally starts to pull away, it will yank the front with it, and they will converge and precip will blossom. give it time

Maybe the coastal develops further east than modeled, and then we get a two or three hour burst of snow post frontal passage dropping a couple of inches. To my non trained eye that’s what the radar looks like n and w. Think it’s called anafront.

General rule of thumb for Bill’s snowfall excitement level in central NJ: draw a line from southern Delaware to Dallas. If the storm bringing us the snow doesn’t originate somewhere south of that line it’s probably not a big deal. Ergo, a cold front or clipper dropping in from the upper Midwest, even one with a low forecast to develop off NJ as the front moves east, does not excite me.

The radar is a strung out mess. This is looking pretty much done but for a dusting for me.

Upton:

No significant changes were made to the forecast with this
update except to delay precip timing a bit from NYC on east. It
looks like precip will blossom after 06-08z as the upper trough
dynamics interact with the developing secondary low. No changes
were made to the winter weather headlines.

Light snow continues to fall across NW Orange County. Starting
to see reflectivity increase as better dynamics begin to move
into this area. Steadier precipitation will continue to
overspread from the west through the night and then blossom
across the rest of the area towards day break.

Have taken an initial look at the 00z NAM12, 00z 3-KM NAM and
they generally support the current forecast. QPF may be a bit
lower than previous runs, but overall looks close. The latest
HRRR also is in general agreement with the ongoing forecast.

The biggest challenge continues to lie with the northward
extent of the warmer air and how far the rain/snow line works.
Despite temperatures currently running a bit cooler than
previously forecast in the NYC metro area, a surge of warmer air
at the surface to just above 925 mb is anticipated

aiannone wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Alex even if we are cold enough for snow which is still debatable, where’s the precip?  The radar looks awful.  The coastal is keeping all precip offshore so far.

In time the precip will come together. The weak low is preventing the front from moving east. As the low strengthens and finally starts to pull away, it will yank the front with it, and they will converge and precip will blossom. give it time

okay, will breath deep but looking less than hopeful

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:0z NAM

there ya go, just when ya thought the B town was getting ziltch they into it moderate, and NYC is out along wqith many areas to west that had been forecasted to have snow now see zero.

Pretty underwhelming, and here we go again thinking b town will jackpot. It's one freaking run not reality. Yesterday it was B town jackpoting from ocean effect. Did anyone bother to check the final tally? They received 0.3 inches yesterday. I still don't get the obsession? Someone make me understand.

Mini rant over. RB called this one. Hate to sound like Math but put a fork in this one. It was always a tenuous setup.

Hmmm, the 0Z RGEM shows ice for NYC for several hours tonight, then plain rain for a couple of hours then several hours of moderate snow. Of course, had it been right on Monday the 8th, I would have gotten 1-2" of snow with the snow lasting several hours...I got just a coating and not even an hour of snowflakes.

Snowing good here. Cp I am not throwing in the towel still think radar will begin to fill in may not get the 6-10 that was forecast but more like 3-6.

jimv45 wrote:Snowing good here. Cp I am not throwing in the towel still think radar will begin to fill in may not get the 6-10 that was forecast but more like 3-6.

I think you'll do much better up there Jim. The precip seems to have had an invisible boundary in eastern Orange county today. HRR still shows good snow from 2am to 8am but the proof is in the results.

Air temp holding steady between 31-32 depending on exact wind direction. SFC temp as you can see on my laser here is 27. So with a ground that cold, borderline temps of 33-34 could still accumulate at night.

Well that was quick. Just jumped to 35 in like 20 min lol

Same here went from 29 to 32

28* with moderate/heavy snow with 3 inches OTG. I understand it is frustrating for other areas because the precip isn't moving much. Believe me I've been there.

Very light mix starting, 32°

Finally snowing here, maybe 1/2 inch.Radar still not to my liking, but better than the early evening.It all depends upon the coastal strengthening.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jimv45 wrote:Snowing good here. Cp I am not throwing in the towel still think radar will begin to fill in may not get the 6-10 that was forecast but more like 3-6.

I think you'll do much better up there Jim. The precip seems to have had an invisible boundary in eastern Orange county today. HRR still shows good snow from 2am to 8am but the proof is in the results.

"Invisible boundaries to the East of me invisible boundaries to the west of me"! All day long the snow refused to get here but for an occaisional flake or two creating a heavy dusting,LOL.Not throwing in the towel either as NWS had jimv at 6 to 10 and us 4 to 8, so he's been spotted those 3 inches now.This is where the rubber hits the road up here with this storm 2-8 AM.NWS still hanging tough at this juncture with the WSW and 4 to 7 inches predicted.If they come across with that, they will bail themselves out on the snow total, but their timing on this scenario gets an F.

Radar shows rain, about to check. 33 degrees. Surpriaed, the models were pretty accurate with the R/S line at least compared to radar. Can't believe it's rain with 33, nighttime, and virtually all levels below freezing. Is there a warm layer somewhere aloft?

Can't believe its raining up here and in the city but snowing/Mix down to the Gulf Coast and New Orleans! What a wacky winter so far...

Confirmed light drizzle here. Boo.

32 degrees with rain here. I’d check to see if it’s freezing rain but I’m too comfortable inside and frankly frz rain is my third least favorite of the winter precipitation types next to “cats” and “dogs.”

Down to 32 a couple hours ago, still raining. I'd be happy with an inch at this point.

33 degrees here in Rockaway light rain/snow mix after light rain last 2 hours

R/S line on radar literally 2-3 miles west and hasn't budged in hours. Still 32 and raining...