JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
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GreyBeard
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Here we go peeps. 0z NAM has initialized
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
And 0z NAM says wave goodbye. 18z teased us
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
however, it's not necessarily more east, but the LP doesnt organize and stays elongated causing the precip shield not to be as expansive to the west
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
UGHHHGHGHGHGHGHGHG
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-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Yeah, shows no love from the coastal, just a tease from the energy coming from the west, maybe a dusting
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Hi RES is a little better but still east of 18z
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-Alex Iannone-
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
0Z RGEM not much better
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Today's 6z runs seem to have taken a jog west, if it holds or trends further westward, eastern areas (NJ coast and LI) could be in for a surprise light accumulation, some snow showers could make it to the PA border but I don't expect any accum out here.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this. Well see.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
sroc4 wrote:NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this. Well see.
Looks to me most areas will see a general C-1"
Timing is late tonight through most of Tuesday morning.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
12z NAM is completely dry
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-Alex Iannone-
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Trough looks neutral already.
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 500mb](http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1517234551585)
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 500mb](http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1517234551585)
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw
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-Alex Iannone-
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
aiannone wrote:Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw
wish we had a like button....
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weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Captur47](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/05/63/74/captur47.jpg)
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Captur47](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/05/63/74/captur47.jpg)
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
aiannone wrote:GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:
The final NW push.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Latest Upton Disco...
Main update this morning is to lower pops this afternoon and
overnight.
Latest hi-res models, 12z NAM and current radar trends, it
appears most of the precipitation remains offshore. Any
precipitation that does fall this afternoon will be light, and
could start off as a few sprinkles before changing over to light
snow as colder air advects in aloft. Have removed the likely
POPs and will keep just chance POPs in the forecast.
Main update this morning is to lower pops this afternoon and
overnight.
Latest hi-res models, 12z NAM and current radar trends, it
appears most of the precipitation remains offshore. Any
precipitation that does fall this afternoon will be light, and
could start off as a few sprinkles before changing over to light
snow as colder air advects in aloft. Have removed the likely
POPs and will keep just chance POPs in the forecast.
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-Alex Iannone-
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Updated Rayno Video:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/northeast-snow-monday-night-and-again-late-in-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=%20Northeast%20snow;%20Monday%20night%20and%20again%20late%20in%20week
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/northeast-snow-monday-night-and-again-late-in-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=%20Northeast%20snow;%20Monday%20night%20and%20again%20late%20in%20week
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-Alex Iannone-
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI. I will hold out small hope for a C-1" but wont hold my breath. Soundings indicate cold enough to stick
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Downlo10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/18/49/18/50/downlo10.jpg)
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Downlo10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/18/49/18/50/downlo10.jpg)
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
sroc4 wrote:HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI. I will hold out small hope for a C-1" but wont hold my breath. Soundings indicate cold enough to stick
That HRRR sim radar would literally mirror Ryano's thought on the precip field. Will be interesting to see if he's right
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-Alex Iannone-
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
I didnt actually watch it yet. Now I have to
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Precip does seem to breaking out decently far west
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 B7f0de10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/05/63/74/b7f0de10.jpg)
![JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 B7f0de10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/05/63/74/b7f0de10.jpg)
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Good video by Rayno - I'll take my 24 flurriies and run and want the back end storm an then next weeks and the following weeks to produce.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
Flurries starting here
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here
Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?
sroc4 wrote:aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here
Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol
False. I’m here with you guys. Radar looks surprisingly good all the way through Jersey down to DC. Any chance for a 2” surprise. (I use that line on my wife a lot)
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