Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Snow88]

German, Euro, GFS,GEFS,RGEM, Euro Mean and Ukie are all trending north with the Monday system from earlier in the week. Euro has another snow event with below freezing temps later next week.

[billg315]

Monday and Friday night are still two days to watch I think. This may be our last go around for the year so a little excitement never hurts.

[Sanchize06]

12z NAM comes north

[rb924119]

I haven't been able to post because of family medical emergencies, but my last post a while back was very positive for this upcoming potential (my target period at the time was March 30th-April 3rd, way back in the earlier pages of this thread). It's great to see the threat actually showing up and matching what my arguably insane mind was seeing, but due to recent events I haven't been able to be as vocal or active in drumming up excitement as somebody like @amugs lol I don't really see a reason to think that we won't continue to see threats through the next one to two weeks, though, as we will continue to see spokes of energy swing around the TPV and possibly tango with some other energy from other sources. Also, this time of year, I can see higher odds of over performing systems given inherent instability in the lower-level baroclinicity and increased moisture fluxes. Lastly, the dual-jet structure of this first threat is a red flag to me to watch for just that, as you have a short, stubby jet coupling with the main northern stream. Throw in the enhanced thermal components as mentioned, and I can certainly see warning criteria snows from this, especially if it swings through at night. Sorry I haven been able to be more active recently and provide more regarding this period!! :/

[Grselig]

I haven't been able to post because of family medical emergencies, but my last post a while back was very positive for this upcoming potential (my target period at the time was March 30th-April 3rd, way back in the earlier pages of this thread). It's great to see the threat actually showing up and matching what my arguably insane mind was seeing, but due to recent events I haven't been able to be as vocal or active in drumming up excitement as somebody like @amugs lol I don't really see a reason to think that we won't continue to see threats through the next one to two weeks, though, as we will continue to see spokes of energy swing around the TPV and possibly tango with some other energy from other sources. Also, this time of year, I can see higher odds of over performing systems given inherent instability in the lower-level baroclinicity and increased moisture fluxes. Lastly, the dual-jet structure of this first threat is a red flag to me to watch for just that, as you have a short, stubby jet coupling with the main northern stream. Throw in the enhanced thermal components as mentioned, and I can certainly see warning criteria snows from this, especially if it swings through at night. Sorry I haven been able to be more active recently and provide more regarding this period!! :/

Thanks for the post. I hope everything turns out OK. Family more important than any weather stuff.

[billg315]

rb, best wishes and hope everything works out with the family situation.

[frank 638]

Rb thanks for the update .I hope everything is ok with your family and there is positive news

[heehaw453]

Latest guidance seems to suggest 2-5" inch kind of deal for Sunday night/Monday morning. Something else to watch next weekend too in terms of more snow. Unreal. I may just get to the 70" mark yet.

[billg315]

The system around April 7 intrigues me a bit more than Monday because I think while Monday looks more certain now the potential with next weekends storm is better. A cold front ushers in very cold (for this time of year) temps with highs only in the 30s Saturday as the models seem to want to develop a storm just to our south on the coast. Euro has a nice trough digging along the coast at this time, GFS is a little flatter. Very interesting setup. Could be a complete miss - but if not could be an April “surprise.”

[sroc4]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish.  That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight.  How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.

I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

Like a blood hound I love sniffing out the faint odors of a snow event. Ray, Frank, Mugs, Bill etc and the rest of the NJ Strong crew were all over it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish.  That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight.  How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.

I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

Like a blood hound I love sniffing out the faint odors of a snow event.  Ray, Frank, Mugs, Bill etc and the rest of the NJ Strong crew were all over it.  

You've been great all year Doc but didn't you and Jim Morrison put an end to winter several days ago? Loved the song but hated the implications and the zonal flow behind it.

[sroc4]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish.  That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight.  How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.

I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

Like a blood hound I love sniffing out the faint odors of a snow event.  Ray, Frank, Mugs, Bill etc and the rest of the NJ Strong crew were all over it.  

You've been great all year Doc but didn't you and Jim Morrison put an end to winter several days ago? Loved the song but hated the implications and the zonal flow behind it.

Fair enough question Cp, however:

Pattern looking to become zonal.  While I suppose I cannot 100% rule out one more, I’m afraid....

Pattern IS looking becoming more zonal:      



AND I did not 100% rule out 1 more:      

Therefore while I was afraid that this was:




I was wrong about this point. AND regarding the potential for late week into the weekend there just might be one more PNA spike that could, might, potentially, maybe, lead to 1 more...even though odds are against it:

[billg315]

And then there’s that 18z GFS from dawn Saturday into Monday morning.

[Radz]

12Z GFS destroys NW of the city next weekend...

[billg315]

Yep, 12z GFS still on it for next Sat night and Sunday.

[amugs]

Scott we have an Archimbault event in the making as I see it for next weekends Nor.

[jmanley32]

ear lord 12z GFS!!! 2 feet + N & W and godzilla even into NYC, thats insane.

[jmanley32]

CMC on board for a areawide gopdzilla next weekend too, what does Euro show?

[billg315]

Euro has the coastal storm too but further off the coast on Sunday I think. Although the fact that the GFS comes further north and closer to the coast is what causes the mixing issues for many so a track slightly further south and east could make things snowier - if it doesn’t stay toooo far S&E.

[sroc4]

Right where we want it for next weekend. One model west; one east. Perfect. I’m a little saucey. Happy Easter friends.

[billg315]

Waiting to get a full look at the 18z run. But right now it is continuing (as it has been for several days) to intrigue me.

[billg315]

Happy Easter!

[billg315]

Yep 18z GFS still has a major snowstorm Saturday night through Sunday. Lol. 6 days of model shifting to go but it’s been relatively consistent the past two days with this.

[jmanley32]

If this storm pans out it would be very heavy wet snow even inland, this would dwarf the last one in terms of power outages, would be very serious. April storms of that magnitude are not good in that respect.

[billg315]

If this storm pans out it would be very heavy wet snow even inland, this would dwarf the last one in terms of power outages, would be very serious. April storms of that magnitude are not good in that respect.

Yeah a foot of heavy wet snow would be problematic even without winds but this could produce some wind as well. Other thing is, God forbid some trees start to bud this week branches could be heavier.

[jmanley32]

If this storm pans out it would be very heavy wet snow even inland, this would dwarf the last one in terms of power outages, would be very serious. April storms of that magnitude are not good in that respect.

Yeah a foot of heavy wet snow would be problematic even without winds but this could produce some wind as well. Other thing is, God forbid some trees start to bud this week branches could be heavier.

oy yeah, here, especially CT I dunno if theres any trees left to fall, its just utter tree destruction in ct, a 2 hr drive along coast id say every 10 ft a large tree of mass of trees are splintered. My mom said my hometown is just in ruins, tons of cleanup has not even started yet, power was back pretty quickly but tons of yards and sides of roads piled with cut of trees

[docstox12]

Yep 18z GFS still has a major snowstorm Saturday night through Sunday. Lol. 6 days of model shifting to go but it’s been relatively consistent the past two days with this.

Wow, the pattern that just keeps giving! It's been an amazing stretch since March 1.My only wish is that this snowy stretch had happened during that extreme cold we had in December-January.Not complaining.

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