Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:02 pm

Tucked in by hr 21

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:02 pm

by Guest Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:04 pm

sroc4 wrote:Tucked in by hr 21

Yep. Unless the backend is real impressive Scott it looks like we may be toast

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:04 pm

H5 closed over D.C.!!!

by Guest Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:06 pm

rb924119 wrote:H5 closed over D.C.!!!

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Tucked in by hr 21

Yep. Unless the backend is real impressive Scott it looks like we may be toast

Agreed Brotha

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:09 pm

NAM taking the LP center right into NY Harbor.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:15 pm

It's focusing on the wrong LP. Rolling Eyes

by **sroc4** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:23 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:It's focusing on the wrong LP.

Doubt it. I think I am understanding Ray what your talking about when looking for the height falls as H5 begins its transition to closing off. I and others have been preaching this part of the forecast for a few days now. The timing and positioning of when and where H5 closes off would be critical in the evolution of this thing. With height falls beginning where we see them being modeled and H5 ultimately closing off just S&W of LI will ultimately be the reason the coastal plain gets the shaft. The furthest east solns had H5 close off and height falls beginning much later and S of LI over open water. The hi res models are trending away from that soln. In the end the GFS is likely too warm overall, but has to be weighted. My map will have to be adjusted.

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Namcon11

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Namcon11

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_24

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:It's focusing on the wrong LP.

Doubt it. I think I am understanding Ray what your talking about when looking for the height falls as H5 begins its transition to closing off. I and others have been preaching this part of the forecast for a few days now. The timing and positioning of when and where H5 closes off would be critical in the evolution of this thing. With height falls beginning where we see them being modeled and H5 ultimately closing off just S&W of LI will ultimately be the reason the coastal plain gets the shaft. The furthest east solns had H5 close off and height falls beginning much later and S of LI over open water. The hi res models are trending away from that soln. In the end the GFS is likely too warm overall, but has to be weighted. My map will have to be adjusted.

I keep seeing and hearing the word "occlusion" with the eastern track reasoning. Does that make any sense? Genuinely asking cuz I can't explain it in MET terms..

by Guest Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:30 pm

Shafted twice in a row now after February which was really May. Looks like it’s just a matter of waiting for the NWS to drop the Winter Storm Warnings for NYC metro and LI. Then it’s onto spring and see you all next late fall. God bless

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:31 pm

oh no...just got home to 8 pages of reading...skipped to the end...not looking so good right???? Drats...Syos..if your map verify's..... Sad

....unless I am reading this wrong...

by **crippo84** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:32 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Shafted twice in a row now after February which was really May. Looks like it’s just a matter of waiting for the NWS to drop the Winter Storm Warnings for NYC metro and LI. Then it’s onto spring and see you all next late fall. God bless

I can see Manhattan, Bronx, and perhaps SI staying in the warning. I wouldn't be surprised if eastern areas of NYC are dropped to advisory.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:35 pm

hi res nam anyone - the PINK/purple is 3-4" SNOW RATE

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png.bd140a76174565e88d82e72a1d99def3

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png.bd140a76174565e88d82e72a1d99def3

by Guest Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:36 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:oh no...just got home to 8 pages of reading...skipped to the end...not looking so good right???? Drats...Syos..if your map verify's..... ....unless I am reading this wrong...

It will verifying mom. I’m sorry. rob you were right all along. Great job kid. We will meet up at Beekman when I come up to fish next month. This winter leave snow me incredibly frustrated. It is what it is. Ciao all

by **dsix85** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:37 pm

James- I can't wait until you get sucked back in tonight when the models show an all out crush job for Long Island. You are more volatile than the stock market these days.

by emokid51783 Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:39 pm

dsix85 wrote:James- I can't wait until you get sucked back in tonight when the models show an all out crush job for Long Island. You are more volatile than the stock market these days.

Syo-BitCoin-Snow

by emokid51783 Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:41 pm

Also, at this point, the 20-40m the models margin of error is what really matters. A 10m jog east or west changes the whole forecast...It's a pretty typical Miller B in that regard.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:41 pm

Great post by Geo (33)
People. when you have the RGEM, HRDPS, Euro, EPS and Ukie in one corner. And you have the GFS and NAM in the other. 98% of the time, you're going to toss the GFS and NAM.

by Blaze Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:42 pm

Is Monmouth County NJ still looking at 6-10 inches? Seen a lot of low ball forecasts of late saying 1-3 inches.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:43 pm

Miller B's are nuts due to many factors but the major one is where it closes off for this area. Tonight's Meoscale models will be telling.

by **dsix85** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:45 pm

Downgraded to WWA here in eastern suffolk. Doesn't mean anything to me.. Still putting stock in nowcasting tomorrow.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Notice my updated snow map says *2nd* and not final...

I personally was not too happy to be so far removed from 12 to 18 hoping that comes back into my area.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:46 pm

amugs wrote:Great post by Geo (33)
People. when you have the RGEM, HRDPS, Euro, EPS and Ukie in one corner. And you have the GFS and NAM in the other. 98% of the time, you're going to toss the GFS and NAM.

Man people need to chill out!!! Its nowcasting time folks. Yes you want to look at the short range models, but also current map observations and radars.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:47 pm

Thoughts?

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 5cbd3610

by **WeatherBob** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:48 pm

I think our monster storm to the NE or ENE is affecting this coastal ever so slightly. If it were further east, I could see this coastal moving a bit more east. That is one feature the models are struggling with ever so slightly

by emokid51783 Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:49 pm

amugs wrote:Great post by Geo (33)
People. when you have the RGEM, HRDPS, Euro, EPS and Ukie in one corner. And you have the GFS and NAM in the other. 98% of the time, you're going to toss the GFS and NAM.

Whose post is that?

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